ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
I have given myself a well-deserved lazy week this week so very little on the chit-chat fr0nt and most of this article will be about the racing over the weekend.
I do have to at least mention Aidan O’Brien and wonder when – or if – the rest of the racing World will make a realistic attempt at playing catch-up. Of course the power of Coolmore and their commercially sound breeding operation means he gets a lot of the best horses – but surely not all of them? On Wednesday at York we had rattling quick ground and saw The Lion In Winter smash the course record for two-year-olds in the Acomb Stakes, bursting the bubble of Godolphin’s highly regarded Ruling Court in the process, and leaping to the head of the ante-post markets for both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby. The Ballydoyle superlatives weren’t as enthusiastic as normal and you have to wonder if they have a few better than the son of Sea The Stars waiting in the wings for future engagements. Los Angeles then took the Great Voltigeur by a neck to head the markets for the St Leger (but I doubt he even head to Doncaster, so don’t snap up a price unless you can find non-runner no bet terms), followed a race later by City Of Troy. Now he does garner all the superlatives with Aidan describing him as the best he has trained – though we do have to take such quotes with a pinch of salt as he is effectively marketing a very valuable future stallion, and as a Group one winning son of Justify, if they can take him to the Breeders’ Cup and win on the dirt, the sky really is the limit when it comes to valuation and stud fee.
Thursday was also an O’Brien benefit with Content taking the Yorkshire Oaks, though by the the going was both ludicrously fast and cutting up and I won’t be taking the form too literally in future. Friday continued in similar fashion though watering (at a guess?) left the horses furthest from the stands with a big advantage as Big Evs failed to land any kind of blow in the Nunthorpe, and we saw a 25/1 winner in the mile and a quarter handicap from the two stall. Sour grapes - maybe – but the did look to hold a serious advantage which is not what festival racing should be all about.
Saturday Racing
1.45pm The Curragh
Ryan Moore gives York and all the British meetings a swerve this afternoon for a book of promising rides for Aidan O’Brien at The Curragh. I doubt we get odds-against for either Henri Matisse (3.30pm), or Bedtime Story (4.05pm), but we may do better with the unraced Officer. A son of Dubawi out of Hydrangea he is certainly bred to be way above average, and although an unknown quality ahead of his debut here, word is he is working well enough to win first time out and that he is potentially in the top rank of their unraced colts.
1.50pm York
Oisin Murphy will need to get See The Fire going a lot earlier than he did at Glorious Goodwood where she narrowly failed to reel in Aidan O’Brien’s Opera Singer by a neck over a furlong further. That was a Group One and the Strensall stakes is a Group Three so connections have every right to feel confident this afternoon, with the rest of her 2024 form seeing her up against Elmalka in the 1000 Guineas, Porta Fortuna in the Coronation Stakes, and City Of Troy in the Coral Eclipse, and it seems fair to suggest nothing of that standard is in opposition here. She is sitting pretty off bottom weight thanks to her age allowance and her sex allowance, and I am hoping we can start the day with a comfortable winner.
3.00pm York
With Kinross highly unlikely to get the give in the ground he seems to need to give his best these days, the City Of York Stakes may well be at the mercy of Audience for the Gosdens and jockey Rab Havlin. He hasn’t been the most reliable of sorts in past years but has won two of his three starts this season, first time out at Newbury in the Group One Lockinge, and last time at Goodwood in the Group Two Lennox Stakes where he powered clear to win by four lengths despite being heavily eased close home. If he arrives at that level this afternoon then he should prove very hard to beat, and with four of his five career wins over the seven furlongs he faces here, and one on Good to Firm going (at Leicester), he ticks an awful lot of boxes ahead of today’s assignment.
3.35pm York
I feel morally obliged to have a look at the Ebor even if it is the most ridiculously competitive handicap on the card. I have 14 runnings of stats to work with here (I have stopped going back any further as trends change), and have the following list of “facts” from past runnings – in the hope they are repeated in 2024. Thirteen of the 14 came home in the first six on their previous start, thirteen were priced at 25/1 or shorter at the off, thirteen were aged four to six years old, thirteen came from the first 12 in the betting at the off, thirteen were rated 99 or higher and all fourteen were rated 109 or lower. None had raced in the last 15 days, but thirteen had a run in the last 90 days. All fourteen had run five times or less this season, and if we apply all those “filters” using the current betting (sadly), we cut the field down from the 22 standing their ground as I write, to an easier to deal with seven of Relentless Voyager, Naqeeb, Crystal Delight, Magical Zoe, Burdett Road, Ziggy, and Epic Poet. My next stop, as always is the trainer record in this race, and four runners represent yards who are having their first runner here, and of the others, only Andrew Balding (Relentless Voyager) and Naqeeb (William Haggas) have even managed a place, so not a massive amount of help there! My next stop is the official ratings and I am looking to see who has won or placed off or near their current mark (in handicaps or elsewhere), but none of these have won off their current mark, though Relentless Voyager was second to Al Aasy at Goodwood when rated 108, and races off 1lb higher now making him an each way option at odds of 16/1. Top-weight might be enough to stop him sadly, so my reluctant vote goes to Magical Zoe. Lightly raced on the Flat with a win in a Down Royal maiden and a third in the Group Three Stanerra Stakes at Fairyhouse followed a fifth in Listed class at Cork, and there may be more to come. Rated 144 over hurdles and fourth in then County Hurdle at Cheltenham, she looks potentially well handicapped here if she gets the rub of the green and at a double figure price, is my each way suggestion.
4.45pm York
As regular readers will know, I am a huge fan of Mick Appleby, an all round nice guy as well as an excellent trainer given the ammunition to fire at the bigger targets. He ended Goodwood as leading trainer and won the Molecomb with Big Mojo, with stable companion Mr Lightside just a length away in third, despite being taken off a true line late on by the winner. He may have got second that day with a straighter path in which case this Listed event may be his to lose, and having won at Redcar and Nottingham we know he has the will to get to the front when the opportunity arises. Rossa Ryan keeps the ride which is a positive as he knows the horse, and if they get the run of the race, a third victory may be on the cards.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Officer 1.45pm The Curragh
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