I have always been told that if you could print money we would all be doing it, and punters who like to weigh in on the sure fire winners caught a very nasty cold at Wexford on Sunday afternoon when Doyen To Win traded at 1.01 on the exchanges to tens of thousands of pounds – only to be collared close home and lose by a neck to Loup De Tallene. Personally, I have never felt confident enough to read a race early enough to get any value and if you want evidence of how it can all go terribly wrong, just watch the replay. Imagine having £1000 to win a tenner only to find you have done the lot – proof positive that betting in running is not for everyone, and certainly not for me.
Next up I believe they call it marketing – or something like that! I used to work elsewhere under the pseudonym of “Statman” for many years where I tried to unearth various lines of attack missed by the general betting public, looking for some kind of edge. After that publication dispensed with my services, my old boss nagged me to put together a book – and I ignored him (as you do) until now. If you search Trivass on Amazon you will be greeted by my first tome – Statmans Racing Bible National Hunt UK here https://www.amazon.co.uk/Statmans-Racing-Statistics-Increase-Backing-ebook/dp/B0BJF47T8G/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1667485781&sr=8-1
. It’s a hefty old read, and if you don’t like racing stats will you be totally coma inducingly bored – but if you are looking to use past performances to help you find your next winners, I reckon it’s the bees knees (well, I would say that). Nothing is guaranteed as we all know by now, but I have put together a loooong list of Stats per track that I genuinely believe will point you in the right direction, so feel free to buy a copy (so I can get the Mrs a Christmas present)!
Lastly for this week I have to at least mention the retirement of Kevin Manning this week, To still be riding at the top of the racing tree at the age of 55 is miraculous in itself, but to come to the end of a long and distinguished career in one piece and with a winner is the stuff of fairytales. Stable jockey to Jim Bolger for nearly 30 years, he won eight classics and will be warmly remembered for rides on the likes of New Approach who took the Epsom Derby back in 2008. Such loyalty seems a rarity these days and is something I truly appreciate, and although I never met the man in person, I join the rest of the racing world in wishing him a long and happy retirement.
On to the racing…
Saturday
Doncaster 12.50pm
Heavy ground at Doncaster makes today even more of a lottery than normal but you would have to hope that if Art Power is at his best and handles the ground, he seems by far the likeliest winner. Connections would have expected better than the one win from four starts this season after the son of Dark Angel ran so well in Group One contests last year, but they go back to the well one more time for 2022 and dropped in to Listed class, he looks to have the best chance of them all. I am very wary of Tarhib who seems to be improving and he may be the one for all you forecast backers out there.
Wincanton 1.15pm
I’m never sure if I will get any free burgers every time mention McFabulous (none yet but I live in hope), though I will be shocked if the Paul Nicholls trained eight-year-old doesn’t win this contest. If this race were over hurdles then he would likely win by 10 lengths or more, and as he is reported to have schooled well at home, I seen no reason why he cannot get off to a winning start over the larger obstacles here with track and trip seemingly ideal.
Doncaster 1.30pm
I hate to be seen as a member of the Charlie Appleby fan club (even if I am), but you would have to think that Life Of Dreams will take some stopping here. She was only beaten a length in a better race at Deauville last time out, and more importantly, has more improvement to come at the age of three and after just the four career starts. I don’t think she will mind the cut in the ground either, and as she gets 3lb from likely favourite Sweet Believer, I can see her making the Haggas filly pull out all the stops at the very least.
Aintree 2.45pm
Brewinupastorm won this last year by nine lengths and sems sure to go off at a pretty short price to double up even though this is his first start following wind surgery of some kind. His stable are going well with three recent winners, but more importantly, he seems to go well fresh. Dashel Drasher is a personal favourite, but I note he has not won first time out since a bumper in 2018, and that is just about enough to tip the scales in favour of the jolly here, who may prove hard to beat assuming a clear round.
Wincanton 3.00pm
Four runners for over £40,000 in prize money on Good ground is frankly embarrassing and the owners and trainers need to be asked why – don’t they want our sport to grow and flourish? Sceau Royal is following the same route as last year with a win at Kempton followed by this contest and as he has won the race for the last two years, he looks difficult to oppose. Admittedly he cannot be getting any better at the age of 10 (or can he), and he does have some very serious rivals who have age on their side, so for me, I think he is the likeliest winner- will I be having a bet – not with other people’s money I’m afraid, but I will be tuning in regardless.
Keeneland 3.50pm
Off to the US of A now and the Breeders’ Cup from Keeneland. I am trying not to sulk just because I am stuck in blighty (I often go and was invited, but circumstances were against me), but it is still decent racing worthy of a closer look. The temptation is to go for all the European challeng4rs but the truth is, that has left me with a bloody nose and an empty wallet in the past and in 2022 I will be far more selective. My first horse runs on the dirt (heaven forbid) when the amazing Goodnight Olive bids to keep her winning run going after scoring on her last five starts, ever since coming home second at Gulfstream on her 2021 debut. Looking at the form and she holds plenty of these on lines through the likes of Ce Ce and Obligatory, and although this looks perhaps her toughest ask yet, that is why she is still a spot of value, and if she gets a clear run she can make it four out of four since being stepped up to the seven furlongs.
Keeneland 5.50pm
On goes my patriotism hat for the Fillies and Mares turf when I will be screaming for Hollie Doyle to be coming home in front on the brilliant Nashwa. Her four wins from six starts this year have included the French Oaks and the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood, though she may be best remembered for failing to see out the mile and a half in the Epsom Oaks to come home third to Tuesday and Emily Upjohn. This is most certainly her best trip, she will get decent ground (it was too soft for her when a gallant second at Longchamp last time out), with my only nagging doubt being a long hard season – but if she remains near her peak she will take all the stopping here.
Keeneland 8.40pm
Nations Pride clearly was not himself when only eighth in the Epsom Derby having arrived after impressive wins at Meydan and Newmarket in 2022. Sent to America straight after that, he was second at Belmont Park and followed that with two easy wins at Saratoga and Belmont At The Big A (don’t even ask), and he should go well here though be warned, this was not originally seen as a target for him and he will need to improve again if he wants to take home first prize.
Keeneland 9.40pm
OK well no point in even suggesting a bet here but we should at least sit back and watch the World’s greatest racehorse strut his stuff. Flightline may be the best horse seen in the States for many many years (some say since Secretariat), and if that is remotely accurate then he will win for the sixth successive time, keeping his unbeaten record, and cementing his place in racing history. Opposing him seems frankly futile, though if you fancy an each-way alternative Hot Rod Charlie could hit the frame on a good day at 33/1, but this is all about the favourite and we all hope he wins and does so without turning a hair.
Sean’s Suggestions:
McFabulous 1.15pm Wincanton
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