One selection and one winner (at the bottom of the page) last week and I will take that to the bank to assist in buying a few more Christmas presents, though Goshen was a bitter disappointment to put it politely and the jury is out on whether he will ever get the chance to live up to his early promise over hurdles.
Personally, I felt last weekend’s results can be taken with a pinch of salt on that ground (if you want a more detailed explanation then go to our run up to Cheltenham podcast here https://postracing.co.uk/2020/12/16/cheltenham-or-bust-16-12-20/), and if I took one horse away from the weekend then Sextant was the one for me. Who would have thought that Carlisle on a Sunday lunchtime would get the heart racing, but the Listed class flat winner made an impeccable debut over hurdles for Keith Dalgleish and looks a very interesting recruit to the winter game. A son of Sea the Stars out of a Sadler’s Wells mare he is certainly bred to be a bit special, and I may well be considering adding him to my Cheltenham portfolio when or if he wins his next start, hopefully in slightly better company.
Do have a listen to the podcast (link at the end) if you can - my friend Ron is offering up a ridiculous prize with thousands and if you fancy winning a share in a lovely looking horse for the next few winters do have a listen!
Meanwhile covid continues to dominate all the headlines, sport and otherwise, as Chelmsford is moved back behind closed doors after being placed in Tier Three status meaning no crowds allowed. Owners will still be welcomed but can’t stop for a pint or a glass of wine while they are there, but some food will be available and I don’t see this as a hammer blow – though I do wonder how much longer they and others can survive without full crowds which are, after all, a major part of raceday income. Fully understandable with lives at stake but I do still wonder if there are other ways to make the tracks safer – after all, I watched some of the Liverpool Tottenham football game on Wednesday night where they may have only had a very limited crowd, yet they were all crammed in the one end of the ground with social distancing apparently a matter of choice? With the acres of land available at most if not all racetracks we can do a lot better than that and I am amazed racing haven’t lobbied the government more successfully to get bigger crowds allowed at the meetings that can still welcome in spectators.
Lastly for our newsbeat section, and a happy 50th to the effervescent Frankie Dettori who passed that particular milestone on Tuesday this week. For many Frankie remains the face of flat racing and despite his well-documented foibles over the years, he remains as strong in the saddle as ever and seemingly enjoying what should be the twilight of his career. His record is second to none, and although he may not be chasing the Champion jockey numbers any more (who can blame him), he still has that magic touch in the top races and was recently crowned the World’s best Jockey for 2020 – winning that particular prize yet again. When I spoke to him a year or so ago, he made it quite clear he intends to carry on for a few years yet which can only be good for the sports image, though I do wonder who will take his place when he eventually hangs up his boots.
On to the racing, not so many contests to talk about this week, but intriguing, nonetheless.
Saturday
2.00pm Lingfield
One on the all-weather for a change but as this is a Listed race, I felt it was worthy of inclusion. One glance at the list of top trainers represented and you could be forgiven for forgetting this is December after all, with eight runners in total, all of them distance winners and four of them course and distance winners too. Wait For The Lord is the lightly raced dark horse here with just the two runs on the flat and a very easy success here last time out, but he has a lot more to find in this company and may be outgunned, while Johnny Drama is looking for a five timer after three wins at Kempton and one at Southwell but may be the Andrew Balding second string with David Probert on board Bangkok who has been competing in better company lately, albeit without much success. He ran as if he needed to blow away a few cobwebs when ninth in Bahrain last time out but was beaten less than four lengths at the line, and just half a length behind the classy Deirdre which suggests he has an outstanding chance here with that run under his belt. He won’t find this too easy though with Dubai Warrior and Sangarius two of the more obvious rivals, but at his peak he may well prove too good for them this afternoon.
12.20pm Haydock
The heavy going here looks to be the likely thorn in our side when it comes to finding the winner here for some, but I have no worries on that score about Cornerstone Lad, though we have to assume he can jump a fence as Micky Hammond’s six-year-old makes his debut over the larger obstacles. Comfortably the best of these over hurdles with a short head defeat of Buveur D’Air in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle in 2019, he arrives in decent sorts after a win on the flat at Redcar in early November, and if he jumps efficiently (the $64,000 question), ten he ought to prove far too good for Elvis Mail, who could be the one for the forecast if we assume he jumps a lot better than he did when making an impressive winning debut at Ayr. He won that day with plenty in hand and ought to improve, though it seems unlikely he will have the pace to see off my selection, though he does represent a more in-form stable.
12.55pm Haydock
A Listed novice hurdle restricted to mares next, and over two miles three furlongs stamina may be more of a necessity on this ground than some assume. Rayna’s World heads the early betting despite being beaten at odds on last time out at Hexham. She does come out bet in at the weights on official ratings (Will victory races off the same rating of 132 but has to give the jolly three pounds), but I really don’t think she is any value at all and will take a risk with Nada To Prada each way instead. The Michael Scudamore horses are running to form if not winning, and the daughter of Kayf Tara looked the sort to go on to better things after making most of the running to come home twelve lengths clear last time out at Ffos Las. That was her first start after a wind operation and they often improve again for a race, she handles the expected going, and won a point to point over three miles on debut, suggesting the step up in trip will not be an issue either. This is a far bigger ask but you don’t know until you try, and she ticks enough boxes for me to risk my money this weekend to small stakes in the hope of a big run.
2.40pm Haydock
The obligatory big handicap of the weekend, and after stealing a place at 25/1 last week I am on a high and hoping for a repeat here. No need to reinvent the wheel so I will attack it again from a statistical viewpoint and see what we can find, though with 24 years of stats to go through, I really hope I can find something positive. With 20 of the 24 winners looked at starting in the first six in the betting that seems as good a place to start as any and (if the early prices are correct), leaves us with Hill Sixteen, Sojourn, Roll Again, Engarde, Highest Sun, and Crixus’s Escape. With just the two winners officially rated 124 or below I am going to remove Engarde, while 23 or the 24 victors hadn’t won over this trip previously, so bye bye to Roll Again, Sojourn, and Highest Sun if that stat holds water. All I am left with now is Hill Sixteen and Crixus’s Escape, and although I will have a quid on the reverse forecast, Hill Sixteen looks the likelier winner with the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard in fractionally better form in the last two weeks.
1.05pm Newcastle
Sometimes I look at races after I have picked them to analyse and wonder why, and this one looks a prime example with a distinct lack of form to call upon. Of those with form, it looks a two horse race between likely favourite Tommy’s Oscar, a winner at Sedgefield last time out and previously a point to point winner at Loughrea. He did catch the eye that day with the ease of his victory, but the form doesn’t add up to all that much and I am very wary of Sharp Suited IF he is fit enough after over a year off the track. His last start was in December last year when giving nine pounds and a nose beating to the John Gosden trained Finespun on the flat here, which would rate him about 78 or so according to my maths. This isn’t the flat and it isn’t the all-weather either, but he is potentially a fairly useful recruit to the winter game, and I will be watching his debut over hurdles with interest.
1.15pm Ascot
Just the four runners here but at present we don’t even have an odds on favourite which tells us just how competitive this is. Not one of the four can be safely relied on to get round without at least one bad error each which sorely temps me to step away from the head of the market and take a risk on Dashel Drasher at a better price (forecast 7/1). He has twelve pounds to find with Itchy Feet and eleven with Caribean Boy to give you some idea of the task ahead of him, but if we (naively) assume he needed his first run after wind surgery when a distant third at Haydock, then he may have a better chance than the official ratings suggest. He won in similar class at Haydock in December last year and was only beaten three and a half lengths by Champ at level weights at Newbury despite losing two shoes, and with Champ now rated 165 and third favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, he may well have been underestimated here. Not a good thing or any kind of a certainty, but clearly overpriced in my book, and well worth a small bet accordingly.
2.25pm Ascot
For me, this is potentially the race of the day, and one highly likely to see plenty of movement in the antepost markets ahead of the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. As things stand the layers can’t seem to decide between Paisley Park and Thyme Hill, which is interesting when you note that the first named is rated five pounds the superior of the pair. Paisley Park won this in 2018 on the plus side but is two years older than his market rival, and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top of the pairing. They last met at Newbury in November when finishing one and two with a length and a half between them, but runner-up Paisley Park is three pounds better off here so it ought to be close between them. Main Fact is the next in the betting as he looks to make it ten wins in a row, but he can get detached early in the race and needs everything to go his way to launch a late challenge in what is a far better field, on paper at least. He certainly deserves his chance in this line up and could surprise them all if he can keep tabs on the leaders early on, but being the old romantic that I am I’ll be having an each way bet on Thistlecrack. Of course, he has to buck just about every trend going to have a say here at the venerable age of twelve, but injury has restricted his appearances in recent years and there aren’t that many miles on the clock. Already the winner of thirteen of his 25 starts, he has a two out of three record here at Ascot including this contest back in 2015, and although he may well need his first run in over a year, at 25/1 or bigger each way I just can’t resist a little saver just in case he retains his form.
3.00pm Ascot
A second handicap (whatever next), but when it is of this quality, I cannot simply ignore it, much as a may want to. The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (better known as the Hennessy) has proved a pointer to this contest historically, and of the five who fit the bill, The Conditional came home in third and was the highest placed finisher at the end of November. Their weights today don’t really suggest that should change in all honesty though Regal Encore did win this last year which is a bonus for his supporters though at the age of twelve he is being asked to make history to come home in front today. Sub Lieutenant is very well weighted on his best form from Ireland and could be interesting on his first start for Georgie Howell but at the age of eleven, asking him to get back to that sort of form seems a big ask, while Flying Angel is thrown in at these weights but hasn’t been at his best over three miles and seems a surprise runner to me. On a very strange day when I seem to be throwing darts at outsiders, I can’t resist a little each way on rank outsider Enfant Roi who is very much the unknown quantity in this field. A multiple winner over hurdles and fences in his native France this is just his second run for his new connections after a second to Suroit at Auteuil at the end of November which looks pretty decent form, and off a mark of 132 here less Sean Houlihan’s three pound claim, he could sneak into a place at 33/1 or thereabouts.
Sunday
12.30pm Thurles
Three miles and a furlong on soft ground will sort out any stamina issues here in this Beginners Chase but the fact that Ministerforsport tops the ratings despite pulling up in three of his four outings this season tells its own story, even with the addition of first time cheekpieces. I don’t think any of us will get rich in the long term getting involved in these sorts of contests, but I do actually have a bit of a fancy for Escaria Ten this afternoon who would be just about second best of these were we running over hurdles, but is yet to blot his copybook anywhere near as often as Ministerforsport who would have his measure with a clear round. Once raced over fences my suggestion was a one paced fifth to Monkfish at Fairyhouse over two and a half miles in late November and should be a lot better suited by this step up to three miles plus (his hurdle wins were over three miles at Cork and three miles plus at Ayr), and as a close relative of the recently departed Whisper, there is every reason to expect he can go on to better things over fences.
2.00pm Thurles
Just the two miles for mares in this novice hurdle but a pretty decent field for a Sunday afternoon headed in my view by the obvious trio of Sayce Gold, Kapard, and Gauloise, though don’t forget classy flat recruit Mighty Blue who could also get involved. Gauloise heads the tissue at 6/4 for Willie Mullins and looked the part when winning on her first start in 20 months when scoring over course and distance, but impressive as she looked, that was in maiden company and she may not find this anywhere near as easy. Kapard remains unbeaten after two starts at Roscommon and Wexford, but the daughter of Kapgarde may just lack the turn of foot exhibited by some of these, especially Mick Winters’ Sayce Gold. Her trainer may be on the eccentric side but whatever he is doing is certainly working as the seven-year-old has impressed on all three winning starts this season at Fairyhouse, Thurles, and most recently Cork, where she took the Grade Three Stayers novice hurdle with some ease. She will go close but assuming the drop back to two miles is not ideal, I will take an each way risk on Mighty Blue for Joseph O’Brien instead. Although proving hard to win with, she has placed form at a very decent level on the flat including a third to Dawn Patrol in the Group Three Loughbrown Stakes in September, and although beaten close to four lengths, she caught everybody’s eye that day as a likely improver and against her own sex here, she could even pull off a surprise result.
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to podcast here instead https://postracing.co.uk/2020/12/18/win-a-share-in-a-racehorse/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Cornerstone Lad 12.20pm Haydock Saturday
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