Day Three to look forward to and what can I add other than I so miss not being there to cheer them home, whether I have or haven’t backed them by the way, money isn’t everything. Two days to go, tiredness setting in, and a constant eye on the weather in case of any dramatic last minute changes – and you thought I was sat on my yacht in the South of France sipping champagne – sadly not. This year has been very different with zero stable tours organised for me to attend (understandably), leaving me with a severe lack of “straight from the horse’s mouth” information that I have relied upon in the past, but as I am not a tipster I won’t be falling on my sword if I fail to find a winner – the idea is to give you something to read and then think about – not necessarily anything you have to agree with or back with real money, this is a game of opinions and we all have our own to toy with. So far Wednesday has seen a similar pattern to Tuesday with Bob Olinger landing the bets easily in the opener, and Monkfish getting home on the Brown Advisory but not in the manner you would expect of a 1/4 chance, though we did land the forecast with the rank outsider second as suggested for a better return of 9/1 for the CSF. If you found Coral Cup winner Heaven Help us at 33/1 then well done but how (she had gone up twelve pounds for a recent win and looked to have it all to do), and moving swiftly on, what did you make of Put The kettle On who overturned recent form with the odds on Chacun Pour Soi to take the Champion Chase. One again the short priced accas fell apart via a Mullins horse allowing the bookmakers to catch a breath, but if you want a mare with the heart of a lion, she fits the bill and I refuse to even try to take anything away from her success. Next up we saw Tiger Roll back the years (did you see what I did there) and simply run away with the Cross Country hard held, making a mockery of all us so called experts. He had looked as if father time was catching up with him in recent efforts but he seemed to simply love it back over those unusual fences, coming alive and never really looking in any danger. Anyone who thinks horses don’t like to race needs to watch a replay – he was never out of first gear, never needed to be touched with the whip, and was clearly enjoying himself throughout – lovely to see and a “good news” story to go with all the others this week. Personally, the card got a lot better from there with my win tip of the day obliging at a ludicrous 14/1 (thank you Sky Pirate), though I picked the wrong one in the bumper with Kilcruit only second – though we got a big run out of Super Six who so nearly placed at odds of 80/1 before running on in to fifth. Onwards and upwards everyone – and on to Day Three.
Cheltenham
Thursday.
Marsh Novices Chase 1.20pm
How I would love to tell you I have a horse to beat Envoi Allen, but sadly I suspect that would be wishful thinking barring accidents and the unbeaten seven-year-old looks one of the bankers of the day if not the entire meeting. Eleven races for eleven successes certainly reads well for anyone happy to lump on at a stupid price but as I am often told (good afternoon Ron), betting odds on in novices is potentially financial suicide, so all I will be doing is adding him in to the treble or acca at the prices. If there is a horse who could surprise then I wonder if it could be Chantry House for Nicky Henderson – after all, he is very lightly raced for a seven-year-old with just the seven career starts under rules, though let’s face it, I am clutching at straws and will simply watch the race unfold in the hope that Envoi Allen is as good as we all think he is.
Pertemps Network Final 1.55pm
From the sublime to the ridiculous, odds on jolly to 5/1 the field, eight runners to 24 – and reserves in case of any last minute withdrawals. Add the dreaded word handicap and life gets even trickier, so feel free to scroll down if you wish – these are most certainly NOT my area of expertise. My next step was to look through the stats for clues but guess what – they haven’t really helped that much with winners at all weights and all odds over the years – though it is safe to add that six to nine year olds do better than any other ages – though that fails to cut things down too much. If money talks then I guess Imperial Alcazar is home and hosed, and to be fair, he did win impressively last time out at Warwick, though the ground may well be quicker now and he has been put up eight pounds for that romp. At 9/2 I can’t see that he represents any value and I prefer a 50p each bet on a horse that stats say can’t win – my old friend Unowhatimeanharry, now a thirteen year old and thus theoretically without a chance. Rated 151 now, asking him to recapture his youth is a big ask, but he has won over course and distance, has a Cheltenham record that includes four successes, has won off ratings as high as 157 (runs in a handicap off six pounds lower today), has Kevin Brogan in the saddle to take five pounds off his back, and may well go best fresh these days (off since a poor run in December). All in all, he has a (very slim) chance, but at 33/1 I can’t resist, though it will be to pennies in a race I can’t even pretend I know how to solve.
Ryanair Chase 2.30pm
An intriguing looking Ryanair this afternoon with eleven pounds separating them from top to bottom according to official ratings, and Willie Mullins responsible for three of the first four in the early betting. Min won this for the yard last year and with Paul Townend in the saddle, he may well be the stable pick for 2021 as well, but we can’t just go with that statement and need to dig a little deeper. One thing I do note is there is likely to be plenty of early pace here with the likes of Dashel Drasher, Allaho, and even Min more than happy to bowl along at or near the front, and I am rather hopeful that between them they will set things up for a closer. I am pretty convinced we are yet to see the very best of Real Steel and he could outrun his price (20/1 for Paul Nicholls, who would have thought), but if push comes to shove, I quite like the chances of Fakir D’oudairies who I have backed every race this season for a pulled up – and two runners-up spots. Joseph O’Brien trains the six-year-old who is proving hard to win with, yet I wonder if this is his ideal trip? Second in the Arkle here last year it looks to me as if he lacks the pace for the two milers, yet he was pulled up when tried over three at Leopardstown before a solid second to Chacun Pour Soi over two miles at the same track. He did win over two and a half miles at Fairyhouse when Samcro was close up before falling, but gets three years from that rival ,and may still have even more to offer. No good thing in a fascinating race, this company looks a little easier for him to cope with to me and at 8/1, a clear round ought to see him in with a solid each way chance at least.
Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle 3.05pm
The more I look at this the more confused I get as I attempt to balance out value against the likelihood of success, one of the trickier equations to make the most of. Paisley Park heads the betting as he looks to regain his crown after a well beaten seventh last season, but he is priced at 15/8 while Sam Spinner (two lengths behind him in 2019) is 50/1 and sports first time blinkers – go figure the math on that one. He is sorely tempting as an each way option to small stakes and I suspect he will run a lot better than his price suggests, but I will be adding Paisley Park to the acca, and having an each way bet on Lisnagar Oscar at 10/1 instead. He took this race last year at odds of 50/1 and that price seems to have made everyone ignore the form, but he did it well enough and looked to be coming to his peak with a solid second after a wind operation at Haydock last time out. Trained for this race without a doubt by the ever shrewd Rebecca Curtis, he isn’t as ground dependant as others will have you believe and will give us a decent shout at a decent price today.
Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase 3.40pm
One of those races where I have to decide whether to continue jumping over a cliff like the lemming I am – or abandon a horse I have been backing all season only to watch it win (no doubt). The horse concerned in that statement is the Joseph O’Brien trained Fils D’oudairies, a six-year-old gelding who has been competing against the very best without success, and drops in to handicap company this afternoon. Second to Envoi Allen at odds of 25/1 (and landing regular readers the forecast that day he was then put up against Monkfish when put firmly in his place with a 44 length fifth, but surely he should find this sort of company far more to his liking. This will be his first start in the UK so the Cheltenham track is an unknown quantity but a good run is eagerly anticipated, though I am not convinced 8/1 is the value I had been looking for. I know I shouldn’t, and I don’t blame you one iota if you don’t, but I have finally come down on the side of Top Notch here at 25/1, a rare price indeed for a Nicky Henderson challenger. Top weights do not do well here I admit, but then again up and coming jockey Luca Morgan takes a very useful seven pounds off his back here, and that may well be all he needs to make all the difference. Third to Frodon at Kempton in January 2020 he was off after that following a wind operation before a poor sixth here in December after which he has had a second wind op before his return here in first time cheekpieces. Bottom line is he has won better races than this and when rated far higher, and if the surgery and headgear help him at all, he is undoubtedly well handicapped, and looks a huge price when you consider all those circumstances.
Mares Novice Hurdle 4.15pm
Those of a certain age have to love any race named after Dawn Run who is one of my all time favourites, but sadly that has no relevance whatsoever to whether or not I can find the winner. This race has only been run five times and Willie Mullins has won all of them, and with three of the first five in the betting in his care once again, odds on he takes this again. Personally, I was a little surprised to see Hook Up the shortest priced of that trio with Dany Mullins on board, and I prefer the chances of Gauloise who has Paul Townend in the saddle, though I admit I don’t know if he had the choice. Both were beaten last time out, as was favourite Royal Kahala, though she ought to reverse recent form with third favourite Roseys Hollow at these revised weights, and I will be taking a massive chance on 25/1 chance Martello Sky, unbeaten over hurdles and with some pretty decent bumper form to her name as well. One look at her form and you will soon spot that this is a massive leap of faith by connections after successes in a Fakenham maiden and a Class Three at Market Rasen. She hasn’t shown the turn of foot of a top class mare yet either, but has plenty of fight when needed which is a positive and trainer Lucy Wadham wouldn’t run her here if she hadn’t got some kind of chance. Bryony frost rides and has won on the mare before which is a tick in a box, and she could go close if it turns in to a war, but once again it’s a 50p each way job in a race I can’t work out.
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup 4.50pm
I have now looked at this contest on three separate occasions and I am none the wiser. Plenty can win this if putting their best foot (hoof) forward, but there is a distinct lack of consistency throughout the field and I am at a loss who to even suggest (just so you know who not to back). I will not be having a bet here (fact), though I can say that seven eight and nine year olds have dominated over the years, for what this is worth. If I was allowed two against the field then I am interested in the possibilities of Storm Control for Kerry Lee if he can manage to get a soft early lead (anything but guaranteed), though the really interesting one has to be Mount Ida, ex of the Elliott yard and now with Denise Foster (say no more). Stepping up in trip having raced exclusively over two miles (twice) and two and a half since sent chasing, this trip may well bring about plenty of improvement as a son of Yeats, and with the market suggesting that may well be the case, he looks the safest each way convenience – though no one says we have to bet in every race and I will happily watch this one without bothering with financial involvement.
Sean’s Suggestions (all Cheltenham)
Double
Envoi Allen 1.20pm, Paisley Park 3.05pm.
Win bet – Not today.
Each Way – Fakir D’oudairies 2.30pm
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