Well racing has been seen as being in a bit of a predicament in recent years as we all know, but have the powers that be finally given up the ghost? Those of a certain age can remember when the Derby was run on a Wednesday afternoon to a full-house, and although it was never the race that stopped the nation, we were allowed to nip away from our desks to watch it on the TV – if we hadn’t already taken the day off (or thrown a sickie). Whether those at the top have simply accepted its recent downfall in the public eye, or they are more concerned by a TV audience than they are by tradition is anybody’s guess, but the fact is the big race has been moved to 1.30pm – to avoid a class with the FA Cup final. That stinks of surrender to me, and agreement that we can no longer hold our own in a battle between the sports, and although I am not that bothered myself, I do wonder what signals it sends out about how important our major middle-distance race for three-year-old remains in the great scheme of World racing?
While you ponder that I will move swiftly on to what my friend Ron describes as the Mullinstown Festival, or Punchestown officially, though I can see his point. It has become a bit of a parade for him these days and with four winners Tuesday, three on Wednesday, and four on Friday, it does seem pretty obvious who is the stable to follow here. I am booked in to go next year because I am told it is an atmosphere to savour, but from a punting perspective, I don’t suppose I will come back with more money that I started with thanks to the numerous short-priced jollies.
Next we have an update on the (dreaded) White Paper, published by the government this afternoon, and sure to affect each and every one of us. As you will all know, we have been waiting patiently for the pathway for gambling reforms in trepidation with all sorts of rumours over the months/years, and a distinct lack of faith that the punters (end customers) have been considered at all in the matter (despite the HBF lobbying). I was sent the document yesterday but funnily enough, at 256 pages I have not had time to go through it with a fine tooth comb (like I have one – have you seen my hair or lack of it), but at first glance, it is not as bad as the naysayers were suggesting. We do need to protect problems gamblers, that has never been in any doubt, and with £125 in a month or £500 in a year losses only triggering a soft check (that you and I won’t even know about), that seems sensible. That will be looking for bankruptcy or CCJs and the figures will be higher before other alarm bells start ringing, though for some (not me), £2000 in a 90 day period may be seen as on the low side. What we don’t know (and I have a lot more reading to do) is whether bookmakers will react instantly and stop the nonsense of asking for bank statements, proof of income etc – or as I suspect, they will just continue to make sure they don’t face any more fines.
Lastly for the chit-chat, and for once I am not sulking despite being sat in England when I could or should have been in Hong Kong. Sadly editorial budgets added to an increase in air fares mean I could not go this weekend, but I wish my friends at the Hong Kong Jockey Club all the best, though that won’t be needed – they are ultra-professional and put our racing to shame I am sorry to day. Despite a card that will have involve more races than we are used to over here, I need to focus my attentions on the three main races that have attracted the best from Hong Kong, as well as numerous challengers from other jurisdictions, with one eye on the European raiders (obviously).
Chairman’s Sprint Prize 7.50am Sunday
Flaming Rib has travelled over for Hugo Palmer as they look to extend their operation abroad for the higher prize money, but it would be a shock to me if his 11th at Meydan in the Al Qooz sprint in March proved anywhere near good enough to win this. He may pick up some of the prize money (over £42,000 for finishing sixth), but this really ought to fall the way of Lucky Sweynesse, who has won his last four starts including when seeing off Wellington by a comfortable length when heavily odds-on earlier in the month. He is hard to oppose, with Japanese raider Aguri an interesting alternative dropping back to this trip.
FWD Champions Mile 9.00am Sunday
My Oberon used to be trained by William Haggas, but is now in the hands of Annabel Neasham in Australia and was last seen coming home second to Mr Brightside at Randwick in the Group One Doncaster Mile on heavy ground on the first of the month. He has own in better ground but it would be the shock of a lifetime were he to prove capable of seeing off Golden Sixty here. Rated one of the top horses in the World at present, he can give his supporters a worrying time by only ever arriving very late on the scene, but he has won 24 of his 28 starts and over £13 million in prize money, so he must be doing something right! California Sparkle did beat him in December and looks his biggest rival, but this really ought to be about one horse as they flash over the line.
FWD QEII Cup 9.40am Sunday
There may only be the seven runners for this mile and a quarter showpiece but it looks a tricky one to solve – and one where we may even provide the winner. William Haggas is yet to saddle a winning in Hong Kong, but he has a solid chance here with Dubai Honour, the winner of both races in Australia since sent globetrotting, and seemingly on the upgrade at the age of five. He will need to do more to take this, and I may be seeing through patriotic glasses, with both locally trained and Japanese rivals to take care of. Romantic Warrior won this last year for local trainer CS (Danny) Shum, and has only been put in his place this year so far by Golden Sixty. He may find this company easier to deal with, though I will be keeping an eye on all the Japanese raiders who arrive with strength in depth.
Tired of reading - head off to listen to the podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/04/28/mullinstown-the-white-paper-the-1-30pm-derby-and-sha-tin-prize-money-plus-plenty-of-winners/
Saturday
1.05pm Sandown
Dancila could go well here with a tongue-tie added to aid his breathing, but a mark of 120 seems pretty hard to me, and I prefer the chances of Under Control if we assume the ground remains on the good side of soft. She won her only start in France before moving to the Nicky Henderson yard and followed up at Newbury before she failed to handle the softer ground at Cheltenham when 20th of 21 in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle. She showed that form was all wrong when quickening up nicely to win back at Cheltenham nine days ago, and she may well repeat the feat here off just 7lb higher.
1.40pm Sandown
Potential versus form here as Nicky Henderson allows leading novice Jonbon, second in the Arkle Trophy and an easy winner at Aintree to take on his elders here in a fascinating match up. Captain Guinness is clearly the value alternative having finished a 10 length second to Energumene in the Champion Chase with Greaneteen a further 24 lengths back, and Editeur Du Gite a length behind him, yet the Irish raider is currently available at 13/2, with those behind him that day trading at 9/4 and 6/1 respectively – go figure?
2.15pm Sandown
Christin Williams was interviewed by the media on Thursday and he and his staff seem to think that (somehow), Kitty’s Light came out of the Scottish Grand National in good form and he will be all ready to go again here. Beaten less than a length into second as a five-year-old in 2021 and third last year to the classy Hewick, connections are out to avenge those defeats this afternoon. If he has come out of last week in good heart he is well-handicapped here with his rating going up another 6lb for future races, and as he is still only a youngster in chasing terms at the age of seven, there may be even more improvement to come.
2.50pm Sandown
Did you see what I did there, describing Hewick as classy in the write up for the 2.15pm? Hopefully I am proved to be correct as the Gold Cup faller looks to show he is even better value for the 850 Euros they bought him for back in 2017. He has won over £390,000 in prize money now which is pretty impressive, though we do have to take into account a crashing fall two out at Cheltenham that may or may not have knocked his confidence. If he gets round safely, he has 12lb or more in hand on official ratings, but if he has an off day, I feel First Flow could be the one to take full advantage.
3.05pm Leicester
Al Mubhir heads the betting here with his backers assuming he will improve again for his first start after wind surgery when fifth at Doncaster, but he was sent off 4/1 favourite to take the Lincoln, and there may not be as much to come as some think. If I am correct (a real rarity before someone else says it), then there may be value to be had elsewhere, and Aerion Power could be an each way alternative. The Sir Michael Stoute yard are firing earlier than normal this year with five winners and a 43% success rate in the last two weeks, and although he needs to step up on last season’s form, Ryan Moore is an asset from the saddle and a place will do for me.
3.25pm Sandown
There is nothing Gary Moore loves more than a winner at Sandown and at 5/1, Hudson De Grugy looks a very solid each way play. One of only two course and distance winners in the field (and the other is rank outsider Gloire D’athon), the six-year-old got back up after being passed to win here last month by a neck, and an added 3lb from the handicapper seems fair enough. He may well have more to offer after just the five starts over fences, and as he has won twice off higher marks over hurdles, he is potentially well treated this afternoon, and if he can iron out his jumping errors that invariably cost him ground, we can all expect a decent run.
3.45pm Haydock
A seven furlong handicap on the Flat rounds off the ITV action this weekend, though at first glance it does look a difficult contest to solve. One look at the statistics for the nine runnings of this Class Two contest tells us close to nothing with winners prices ranging from 3/1 to 25/1, ages from four to six, weights from eight stone four to nine stone eight, nine different jockeys, and a previous finishing position from first to eighteenth – disaster! Trainer William Haggas has won this twice with Predominance and Afjaan so it may be worth giving a second glance to Montassib despite a poor effort in the Lincoln when hanging badly, but coward as it makes me, I will stick with market leader Spycatcher. All his runs on the turf last season were in Group class, headed by a second in the Clipper Logistics Stakes at York, but he was gelded in March and returned to action in a Conditions Stakes at Thirsk for his first run in over 300 days, which he won with ease. That was further proof that trip and ground suit him ideally, and with improvement expected on his first start in handicap company since December 2021 when third on the all-weather at Wolverhampton, there are far more positives than negatives for him today.
Something for the weekend:
Spycatcher 3.45pm Haydock
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