Whips, Money Grabbing (?), Winning Bets That Aren't, My View Of The Best Horse In The World - And Hopefully Some Winners Too!

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

Plenty of strange or controversial stories to write about this weekend, but I have to start with South Africa, even if I do feel a touch guilty covering the story.  For those yet to see it (link here https://wwos.nine.com.au/videos/horse-racing/jockey-whips-rival-during-race/cm6ftzhve000s0hmnnr53c6x1), Gavin Lerena, a top top jockey and as far as I am concerned, a decent bloke, had a “falling out” with fellow jockey Jason gates, and lost his rag before whipping his rival three times during the race. Now none of us know what goes on behind the scenes, and I suspect there is more to this than anything available in the public domain, but it was quite frankly unbelievable, and something I have never seen on a racecourse before. Gavin quickly issued an apology for his actions on social media, and I have to add it was totally out of character for the man, but it won’t stop here and I suspect he is going to end up with a pretty lengthy ban.

Of course, you could have asked the trainer for his or her opinion, but if some have their way in the UK you will need an open wallet to do just that. Trainers have been talking about refusing to conduct post or pre-race tv interviews without payment, a scenario that is already in place for jockeys apparently, so I can their point – though that money is a collective sum that goes towards the professional Jockeys Association career-ending insurance scheme, and not directly to the jockeys involved. Peter Savill and his newly formed Professional Racing Association seem to be behind the move (on hold at present), but I have to feel we have example number 179 of racing shooting itself in the foot. Free publicity has to be a good thing for the sport, the public want to hear the trainer’s view (good or bad), and taking that away, or making it cost prohibitive cannot be a good thing. Perhaps smaller demands, and a sensible fund for trainers who fall on hard times may sweeten the pill a little, but as things stand, many people I have spoken to see it as little more than outright greed.

Talking of greed (did you see what I did there?) when is a winning bet not a winning bet – when it’s an outrageous acca. I have been approached about bookmaker limits which vary dramatically from £1,000,000 at the top end to as low as £50,000 -but how many punters are aware of the numbers when they place a bet? For amusement purposes I put together an acca on the biggest priced outsiders at an evening meeting and got an amusing screen flash along the lines of “oops - someone is shooting for the moon – your bet goes through our limits” from Paddy Power, but do all bookmakers do the same – and what if my bet was at SP so they cannot calculate the winnings in advance? I think most of us will agree with the concept that if you cannot win, you cannot lose with a bet either, but what if you put on a seven horse acca (for example), and the first five win having drifted, and you have now hit your bookmaker limit (lucky you). What happens now with horses six and seven? As I understand it, they are now effectively tunning for the bookmakers – if they win, your payout does not increase, but if they lose, your bet goes down the toilet – how can that be correct? To the best of my knowledge, nothing is in place at present for that scenario, which is an outrage (not that I have ever been there by the way), and the bet should automatically stop when the limits are reached.

Lastly (I like to end on good news if I can find some), and I was lucky enough to be invited to the Longines Awards last week when Dubai World Cup winner Laurel River and Aidan O’Brien’s City Of Troy were crowned joint top race horses of the year (the Juddmonte international at York was race of the year for those interested). I have no real issue with either, and I note Maddy Playle did an excellent piece in the Racing Post along those lines and beating me to it (no plagiarism intended) (https://www.racingpost.com/news/opinion/comment/city-of-troy-and-laurel-river-may-top-the-ratings-but-this-underrated-star-is-one-we-should-all-be-celebrating-aTvqI8A8NCp2/), but what about Romantic Warrior? Officially rated a few pounds off the top by those who calculate these things, he has now won 18 of his 23 starts, over £18,000,000 in prize money, making him the highest earner of all time, 10 Group Ones over distances from six furlongs to a mile and a quarter, and scored at home in Hong Kong and away in Australia, Japan, and last week in Dubai when he turned the Group One Jebel Hatta into a procession. His next race is pencilled in with the Saudi Cup where he will try to outdo City Of Troy by winning on dirt before a possible crack at the Dubai World Cup, and in my eyes he isn’t just the best horse in training at the age of seven, he has proved time nad time again he is one of the greatest of all time.

Fancy a podcast to get the views of me and Ron Robinson too – click here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2025/01/31/post-racing-podcast-31-01-25/

Saturday Racing

Romantic Warrior - my fave horse!

Leopardstown 1.15pm

Sandown see very small fields for their better races so I have turned my attentions elsewhere, with Leopardstown in Ireland the cream of the crop.  The first race at 1.15pm is a 12 runner novice hurdle, though Willie Mullins trains five of those and Gordon Elliott a couple – someone needs to report them to the monopolies commission!  The betting certainly suggests that Final Demand is the Mullins first strong, and perhaps understandably so after an impressive debut over hurdles at Limerick. Bought for a huge 230,000 Euros unraced in 2022, he made his debut in a point-to-point at Lingstown where he won by six lengths after heavy support saw him sent off at 5/5 favourite, he moved to Willie’s yard and was sent off odds-on for his hurdling bow which saw an impressive victory. 10/1 for the Turners at Cheltenham and only 8/1 for the Albert Bartlett, he will need to win this and do so comfortably to justify those odds, but he does look an exciting prospect and is difficult to oppose. 

Musselburgh 1.42pm

The Scottish Triumph Hurdle at 1.42pm is interesting at the very least, though I would be surprised if the winner gets anywhere near to the frame if he heads to Cheltenham for the real McCoy. Maitre En Science heads the betting after wins at Dieppe and Clairefontaine for his previous handler, but that form looks questionable to me, and she has to give weight to the majority of her mainly male rivals. Nardaran pulled too hard for his own good at Kempton and wears cheekpieces here and if he settles he could be anything (or nothing), but I will take a chance on Hosaamm at a double figure price (as I write).Trained by Adrain Paul Keatley in Yorkshire, he showed a willing attitude to win at Wetherby last time out where the winning distance of a head didn’t reflect his true dominance, and I note that Brian Hughes rode him there as well as this afternoon – did he suggest this as a next target to connections I wonder?  In an ideal world, I see him being held up longer here (I felt he idled a little once in front at Wetherby) and if that is the case, we could be on a winner.

Leopardstown 1.50pm

In a race won in each of the last three years (and seven of the last 10)  by (you guessed it) Willie Mullins, it came as a shock to me to see Gavin Cromwell’s Hello Neighbour at the head of the market, though he is unbeaten after two wins on the flat and one over hurdles last time out, when scoring by a short-head from Lady Vega Allen who re-opposes on 1lb worse terms this afternoon. The jolly sports a hood for the first time here which sets alarm bells ringing with me, and I am happy to oppose him with a very small each way bet on Wendrock at a much bigger price. Trained by Gordon Elliott, who can get forgotten in the Mullins maelstrom, he was bought off the Flat before finishing third at Navan before a running-on two length course and distance victory last time out. He does need to take another step forward I admit, but he showed battling qualities that day, and if they go off at a good pace here, his stamina may yet see him run into a top three finish.

Musselburgh 2.50pm

The Scottish Champion Chase at 2.50pm is a two and a half mile handicap, and perhaps my one chance today to profile a race in the hope past runnings point us in the direction of the winner.  Looking at all 12 runnings for divine guidance (though they were over two miles to clarify) , I note that 10 of the 11 winners who finished last time out came home in the front five (one was pulled up), though that only sees two with a line put through them. None were sent off at bigger than 22/1 (we lose Lieutenant Command using current prices), and only one was older than nine (bye-bye Minella Drama). All came from the top seven in the market which loses another three), though that still leaves is with too many to handle. Only one of the 16 runners over the years who fell, pulled up, or unseated their jockey last time out came to the front where it matters, and although that is not a 100% stat, it does get rid of a good few more. We are now left with five, still too many so we need to go deeper, starting with their trainer records. Lucinda Russell (Traprain Law) has had a couple of places, while Harry Dereham (Sir Psycho) has placed with is only runner – the rest have left this race alone until now! Looking at the expected going (currently good to soft) and if we remove those yet to win on the ground, we are down to The Kalooki Kid, Marble Sands, and Saint Segal – happy days.  Of those three, only Marble Sandshas won off his current mark or higher (taking a small field Listed race at Carlisle in November, NOT a handicap), but at 6/1 and following a solid second at Cheltenham off 1lb higher in January, he looks a sold each way call at his current 6/1 – let’s all just hope that price or better lasts until race day.  

Leopardstown 2.55pm

Just the six runners declared for the Irish Arkle Novice Chase over two miles and a furlong, but make no mistake – the winner will jump up the betting for the Arkle “proper” at Cheltenham in March. We won’t get rich backing Majborough I’m afraid, but he is already as short as 4/1 for the Festival, and looks the likeliest winner barring any mishaps. The winner of the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham last season, he was sent straight over fences on his next start at Fairyhouse in December, winning by over six lengths from the useful Tullyhill, despite looking as if the experience would do him good.  He will need to brush up on his jumping to win this but is expected to learn with every race, and if that is the case, he is another short priced Mullins horse expected to win today.   

Leopardstown 3.30pm

Describing a price of 4/6 or thereabouts as value may see me hung drawn and quartered in certain places, but surely Galopin Des Champs is a good thing ahead of the Irish Gold Cup at 3.30pm? He is pretty much the same price to retain his crown at Cheltenham after winning by an easy seven lengths in the Savills Chase here last time out. I am told he still looked as if the race would bring about more improvement, and if that is the case, he should confirm the form with runner-up (and stable companion) Fact To File on the same terms. With six of the nine runners it is heavily odds on Mr Mullins takes home the majority of the prize money on offer, but sadly I really cannot find an each way alternative worthy of a mention.

Something for the weekend

Marble Sands Each Way 2.50pm Musselburgh