ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Just like everyone else in the World I need to start with a Happy New Year message, and I genuinely hope that we will see an upturn in the fortunes of the sport we love – lets be honest, it needs a shot in the arm from somewhere.
I won’t pretend I have had the time to read too much into the news this week, though I did peruse a fascinating article from the excellent Nancy Sexton (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/6138/worlds-ten-most-expensive-sires-2024/) regarding the World’s top sires and their fees, and with a little bit of maths that even I can do, winning the lottery appears secondary to owning a top class sire! I am quite aware I am out on a limb here, and that the breeding industry may alienate me for evermore, but I was brought up with the old maxim that you breed horses to race them, not that you race horses to breed them which now seems the case, with the tail very much wagging the dog. I am a capitalist by nature, so I do understand that making money is the name of the game, but if Frankel covers the same 196 mares this year as he did last year at the new price of £350,000 that adds up to £68,600,000 (that is not a typo) or nearly 333 times his winnings form an unbeaten career of 14 starts including 10 group Ones, and over a period of three years. That does at least partly explain why some are rushed off to stud in haste rather than continue racing, after all they can earn so much more in the Breeding Sheds, but you have to wonder if something could be done to redress the balance a little? Dare I suggest a tapered tax on the stallions by age that could a) increase prize funds at the races and b) encourage owners to keep them in training for one more year accordingly – sacrilege in some eyes but at least something that could or should be looked at.
One interesting question came up this week and that regards a chaser trained by Paul Nicholls who goes by the name of Tango Tara who finished fourth over fences at Exeter on the 1st of January. Nothing too exciting I agree, but it is his handicap mark that has/had me perplexed. He had been off the course for well over a year and according to the BHA website had not racing for fences (no surprise, this was his debut over the larger obstacles), and no rating over hurdles either with his latest rating dated April 2022 of 119. Somehow (and I have asked the BHA) I have no idea why he raced off a mark of 117 for his debut over fences as it isn’t a chase rating and he doesn’t have a hurdles rating – nothing untoward but all part of the learning curve, and I doubt I am the only punter who was more than a touch confused on the day.
On to the racing this weekend…
Saturday
A real will they or won’t they scenario this weekend with bad weather due to hit both Sandown Newcastle and Wincanton, the three best cards of the day and the only ones on turf, not what any of us wanted to read. Common sense suggests we try to spread our suggestions around the Country for that reason alone, starting at Sandown in the Veteran’s Chase, the sort of contest where trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record. Good Boy Bobby (3.00pm) comes here looking for his hat-trick after wins at Chepstow and then over this course and distance last time out when always doing enough to come home a couple of lengths clear, and an added 4lb from the handicapper seems more than fair. He has won off higher marks in the past, albeit in 2020 and 2021 but seem close to his best once more, and if the first-time cheekpieces help him find anything at all, he looks a solid each way selection.
I have no idea why the Venetia Williams horses seem to come alive when the word heavy is in the going description, but George Saint (2.40pm Wincanton) would be a good example after the eight-year-old grey strolled home at Fakenham by 12 lengths last month after plenty of market support. He has been put up 7lb for that victory which clearly makes this a tougher assignment, but he may well outstay all of these in the atrocious conditions expected, and land his hat-trick.
One from Newcastle next and although the rest of the card looks tricky (or too obvious to get a price), I am sweet on Donald McCain’s Yougoglencoko in the all-weather bumper that starts the card at 11.55am. The five-year-old mare made an impressive start to her career when winning by six lengths at Kelso, quickening up when asked by Abbie McCain to put the race to bed in a matter of strides. That made her stand out as a horse with plenty of ability, and if she takes to the strange surface, that she may have never seen before, then she could well give the 7lb or more away to all of her rivals.
Southwell are rapidly making a name for themselves with their Tapeta surface attracting many of the better bred horses, a far cry from the ankle deep Equitrack that many trainers tried to avoid. There are plenty of interesting runners on the day but none more so than Archie Watson’s Out Of The Stars (5.30pm Southwell) in my view, as the daughter of Zoustar looks to make it thee wins from four starts. Backed as if defeat was out of the question on her Kempton debut, she won by a short head at odds of 8/11in April and was then sent to Royal Ascot in June for the Group Two Queen Mary Stakes where she was beaten 17 lengths in to 23rd, a run far below expectations and a bitter disappointment to connections. It may have been the turf or there may have been something amiss as she wasn’t seen again for the resto of the summer before returning back on the all-weather at Wolverhampton for a length win in a five-furlong novice. She makes her handicap debut off a mark of 81 this evening, but if she is as good as they once thought, that may not be enough to stop her 100% all-weather record.
We all know that backing newcomers can be a dangerous thing to do with real money, but word reaches me that the Clive Cox trained Nemov is pretty decent, and could well make a winning debut in the 5.45pm at Kempton this evening. A home bred son of Blue Point, the Cheveley Park Stud owned colt is related to some decent sorts including Zonderland, a winner here over seven furlongs and a Group Three winner at Salisbury. His sire will give him that extra injection of speed that he may need for this trip, and his inexperience obviously counts against him, but this isn’t much of a race, and he could well hit a place at least first time out.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Yougoglencoko 11.55am Newcastle
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