Well I have decided to wake myself up from a summer slumber (we Brits do love to moan about the weather, don’t we), and do things just a little differently this week and perhaps for a few more articles after that. I have picked the contests that interest me the most, gone through them in my usual way – and will then list the ones I really fancy at the bottom as always. Before then, please take a moment to at least think about jockey Liam Treadwell who has left us all at the tender age of 34. A Grand National winner on Mon Mome and an all-round likeable bloke, I can’t pretend we were friends, but he was always amicable on the few occasions I did run in to him at the track, and he will be sorely missed by everyone who knew him in the racing game. We all have our demons and is not for me to comment on those of anyone else, but I would like to take this chance to big up Riders Minds (https://ridersminds.org) who are there for you should you feel the need to talk – none of us are alone and no problem is insurmountable, please please talk, especially in these strange times.
On to the racing and starting at Newmarket…
Criterion Stakes 2.40pm
Limato is back to try and win this race again after scoring as a seven year old last year and he certainly could go well fresh in his youth though whether father time is catching up with him is another matter. Loves the track the trip and the going while trainer Henry Candy is hitting an acceptable if not earth shattering 17% suggesting he has to have a chance of following up. Godolphin are double handed with Mubtasim the higher rated of their pair (and a CD winner) but I narrowly prefer On The Warpath of over him who looks sure to do better this season. Sir Dancelot can never be discounted but race conditions see him giving too much weight away in my view and I would be sorely tempted by a little on Turjomaan in a first time visor who ran too fresh last time out to have any chance in a far better race and should be far more comfortable in this company. If he settles he has every chance and that may well be a risk worth taking.
Betway Fillies Novice Stakes 4.25pm
The filly’s novice stakes at 4.25pm may not be the best race of the day but it certainly intrigues, if only because of the jockey bookings. Frankie Dettori rides impressive course winner Pure Beauty for Godolphin yet retained Godolphin jockey William Buick rides the once raced Sakura Petal who was beaten 28 lengths over further at Yarmouth. What we read into that is open to question (they are with different trainers), but is it simply that Saeed Bin Suroor prefers Frankie to his stable jockeys, or has Sakura Petal improved out of all recognition at home? I would be tempted to stick with what we have seen on the track, just don’t be too shocked if the Appleby filly runs a far better race than her sole performance so far implies with first-time cheekpieces employed to aid her cause.
Newcastle
Chipchase Stakes 1.50pm
I have precious little faith in anything in this particular race as we see impressive course and distance winner Mubakker heading the betting after scorching home in comfort in a Class Two handicap here on his return to action. He certainly deserves to step up in class to this Group Three event and could well be improving sufficiently to come home clear of this field but the 5/2 looks skinny enough and at 11/2 or soBrando looks an each-way bet to nothing. Kevin Ryan has his horses pretty much running to form and if we ignore his substandard fifth in the Abernant Stakes when he pulled too hard for his own good, then we have a Group One winner at an each-way price. Naturally, there is a fly in the ointment as he makes his all-weather debut at the age of eight, but it is called gambling for a reason and having weighed up all the pros and cons I will be having a 20/80 on Saturday afternoon more in hope than with any massive confidence.
Hoppings Fillies Stakes 3.00pm
Possibly a top weight v bottom weight here as the unbeaten four year old Aloe Vera tries to give twelve pounds to Ed Dunlop’s Virgin Snow. Both impressed last time out with comfortable victories but Ed’s has had the benefit of a run now whereas as Ralph Beckett’s filly has been off track for well over a year now and that could be the edge she needs to come home in front – a no bet race for me but one well worth watching regardless.
Curragh
Alleged Stakes 4.45pm
Just the five runners for a Group three on good ground seems shameful to me and hardly helps the owners cause when they continually whine about a lack of opportunities and prize money. Four of the five runners are trained by O’Brien but in this case three of them are in the care of Joseph, though surely Sir Dragonet is the likeliest winner for his father Aidan? Jockey Ryan Moore took plenty of social media abuse from the armchair jockeys after coming from well off the pace in to second on board the Camelot colt in the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot which makes life all the more interesting here. Assuming he needs to be covered up to give his best he may well have trouble again in this smaller field and although the most probable winner, I won’t be betting here for that very reason.
Irish Derby 7.15pm
Fifteen runners, and five trained by Aidan O’Brien, three by Joseph O’Brien, and one by Donnacha O’Brien – seems like a family affair to me! With no distance winners in the field stamina has to be taken on trust, but it seems fair to think that Queens Vase winner Santiago has no issues there having scored over a mile and three-quarters. He seems to be the choice of Seamie Heffernan while Ryan Moore is forced to stay in the UK, but he did hang right at Ascot and any more misdemeanours could well affect his chances here. We may well have the winner right there to be honest but where is the fun in picking the favourites all the time, and there may be each way value elsewhere, but how big dare we go? The last ten years have seen four odds on winners but no jollies in the last three, though we all know this year is very different. Crossfirehurricane is a tempter as he bids to keep his unbeaten record intact but form e he needs to do a lot more to compete, while I also expect a huge run from Fiscal Rules, despite being wary of his stamina having never raced beyond a mile before and with Make Believe as his sire. Edward Greatrex rides Galileo Chrome and he could surprise a few and even hit the places, but in the end I have come down on the side of Tiger Moth, a twice raced son of Galileo who looks a backward sort who can only get better with more experience. Staying on well to win his maiden at Leopardstown over ten furlongs three weeks ago, he looks sure to appreciate the step up in trip, and with Emmet McNamara in the saddle he should give us a good run for our money at odds around the 16/1 mark.
Vintage Crop Stakes 7.45pm
Another race where a watching brief may be the best way forward as Aidan O’Brien looks to start the once classy Sovereign off with a win despite over a year off the track. Front running here in the Irish Derby he shocked everyone with a six length success at odds of 33/1 though we won’t be looking at anything near to that this evening. That was only his second win and he was fifth first time out as a juvenile before a second last season on his return at Leopardstown, suggesting he really ought to improve for the race. His best form makes him a shoe in here but I will be keeping an eye on French import Belsanndi who was bought out of Alain De Royer-Dupre’s stable for 210,000 Euros after winning at Chateaubriant and will need to be competitive here to match up to that price tag on his first start for Luke Comer and with Rory Cleary in the saddle.
Can’t be bothered to read my waffling – don’t blame you – you can listen to my views and those of Ron Robinson here free of charge https://www.postracing.co.uk/2020/06/26/its-the-irish-derby-tomorrow-but-has-it-become-a-group-2-in-all-but-name/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Turjomaan Each way 2.40pm Newmarket Saturday
Brando Each way 1.50pm Newcastle Saturday
Sir Dragonet 4.45pm The Curragh Saturday
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