Two things to talk about before we go to work on finding some more winners, starting with the Arc meeting last Sunday and my (probably biased) views on the winners.
I won’t go into detail too much on some races, but if you weren’t impressed with Aidan O’Brien’s Opera Singer in the Prix Marcel Boussac – then you need a visit to Specsavers. The daughter of American superstar Justify made all before drawing away for a five-length success, and she is clearly pretty decent – though I won’t be rushing off to snap up the short prices for next year’s 1000 Guineas and Oaks. The time was nothing inspiring and she has had more races than I would expect if she is one of the best fillies at Ballydoyle, though she could go well if sent off to the Breeders Cup as expected.
In the Arc I was cheering on Japanese raider Through Seven Seas who ran well in fourth (plenty of bookies paid out the first four so I am hoping some of you collected), but she was left with too much to do in my opinion, though that takes nothing away from winner Ace Impact. He kept his unbeaten record when sent to the front over a furlong out on his first try at a mile and a half to put the race to bed in a matter of seconds, beating useful yardstick Westover (who returned home injured and has now been retired) into second, though I suspect he will now be rushed off to stud where he can make far more money than he can if he is kept in training next season.
Blue Rose Cen bounced back to something like her best to land our bets in the Prix de L’Opera by a neck and restore my faith in the daughter of Churchill, though I am hoping that will be it for the season as she looked tired to me, with fingers crossed she stays in training next year and beyond. It has to be said that her season started back in April in a French 1000 Guineas trial, and with five runs since, I just feel she may have had enough for 2023.
Lastly, we all “knew” that Highfield Princess could not win the Prix de l’Abbaye, but like many females in my life to date, she delighted in proving me wrong. Drawn way too high in the 14 stall she broke well enough before getting up late to win by a length, and although the so-called experts are crabbing the form, I felt that was one of her best runs yet considering the draw, and she heads to the Breeders’ Cup with every chance, faster going permitting.
Naturally, racing would not be racing without a negative story as the BHA try to jiggle the fixture list to make it more attractive to the next generation(s). As you would expect there will always be winners and losers in any chances, with plenty of racecourses speaking out publicly of the pain they will suffer if their fixtures are moved to morning or later in the evenings on a Saturdays. I know I am the odd one out here but I don’t buy it as a big deal IN THE LONG TERM - yes we are all used to meetings starting at say 2.00pm or so, but that is just a historical habit and there is no reason why I won’t go racing earlier or later if I want to. I remember six race cards as the norm, but now look at things – nine at Newcastle Friday night and Ascot standing out like a sore thumb for ONLY having six contests – times change and racing may need to as well. Whether the plans in place are the miracle cure is a very different question, and I am not convinced it will make too much difference – it largely depends on whether the likes of ITV use the added time between races to promote the sport – or revert to type with some reality TV bozo looking at the fashions or trying to promote his or her social media channels – not for me I’m afraid but then again, I am not the audience or ABC segmentation they are trying to attract.
Tired of reading (or in need of Specsavers as mentioned earlier?) - tune into the podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/10/06/arc-meeting-review-who-fancies-going-racing-at-10-30am-plus-eight-winners-tomorrow/ for me and Ron Robinson arguing the toss!
On to the racing…
1.30pm Newmarket
I hate it when they start the ITV racing with a handicap but it is what it is, and we do have seven races of history to help us. Three-year-olds have won six of the seven, while Roger Varian has won two, and all have carried eight stone eleven or more. Using that as a starting point we can theoretically dismiss eight of these which leaves us with a more workable list of 10 lol. Red Danielle is the only one trained by Mr Varian, and that looks to be the final nudge I needed to draw a conclusion. The daughter of Sea The Moon took four races to get the hang of things but bolted up last time out at Yarmouth in a three horse race and that will hopefully have done her confidence the world of good. It wasn’t much of a race to be fair and the form of any small field contest should be taken with a pinch of salt, but the handicapper feels the same and has only put her up 3lb, which must give her every chance on her handicap debut here.
1.50pm Ascot
A Listed sprint over five furlongs with no obvious draw bias is interesting if nothing else, but this is an all things are possible contest with winners at odds up to 33/1 (twice) in the last 26 runnings and horses rated from as low as 81 all the way up to 111, a range of 30lbs! Age seems irrelevant though older horses do have the higher winning percentage, while we can add that only one solitary winner hadn’t had a race in the last 60 days, for what that is worth. If everything runs to form which would be a rarity, then Emaraaty Ana is by far the likeliest winner. He has been placed in similar races on his last two starts at Newmarket and York and is officially rated 3lb clear of her field at these weights, though he hasn’t won a race since September 2021 which has to be of some concern.
2.05pm Newmarket
An absolute minefield for us punters with a big field of generally inexperienced juveniles vying for a big prize over the six furlongs. All I can add is we haven’t seen a winner at bigger odds than 14/1, but with only two winning favourites, most things seem possible. No trainer or jockey has won this twice which is as much use as a chocolate fireguard, but I do suspect we could see a surprise here despite the high prize find on offer. Jane Chapple-Hyam is a far better and far shrewder trainer than most give her credit for (and excellent company too), and I was amazed to see her running Elderflower here. An unraced daughter of Ten Sovereigns who cost just 50,000 Guineas at the sales, she gets in here off just eight stone eight thanks to race conditions, and although hands up I have heard nothing on the grapevine, it would come as no shock to me for her to run well, and then find out this has been a long-term plan.
2.25pm Ascot
I have always had a soft spot for the Cumberland Stakes for some unknown reason, though finding the winner hasn’t always been for me. We have seen two winning favourites in a row with Hukum and Hamish and three in the last four, but will Al Aasy continue that recent trend? With Postileo’s connections praying for rain and Al Qareem possibly better over further the answer is a resounding yes, though if I have a bet it will be a small one. The son of Sea The stars likes to do things the hard way with a neck success in August at Haydock and a half-length defeat to favourite Adelaide River at Leopardstown, but he clearly has the ability to take this if the race falls his way, of course.
2.45pm Redcar
Another trappy race but one that has fallen to the Richard Fahey yard twice (from 47 runners in the last 26 runnings) and he has placed with a further three suggesting recent ayr winer Flaccianello has a decent each way shout, while Stan Moore has an even better record with two wins from just the six runners, pointing to Queues Likely as an alternative. I will maker no bones about it, I am a huge fan of Stan who helped me out many years ago and has always been as straight as a die with me (unlike some I could mention) so this may be a heart rules head selection, but I can add he had two entered here, and now relies on the lightly raced daughter of Massaat who won her maiden at Windsor and wears cheekpieces for the first time looking to recapture that sort of form today.
3.00pm Ascot
Although this is a Group Three it is another of those races with very little recent pattern to them with no trainer winning it twice in the last 10 renewals, and no jockey either – back to the old drawing board for me. In the last 26 runnings we are yet to see a winner at a bigger price than 16/1 which may prove of some use, while we have only seen one winner rated lower than 98 which discounts three of these (using early odds as I have to, of course). As we probably can’t dutch the remaining 12 and make a profit, decisions need to be made, and my lucky pin has come down on the side of Dark Trooper, upped in class after winning a Class Two handicap here over course and distance. The son of Dark Angel is an improving three-year-old who has won his last four starts as he climbs through the ranks, and who is to say he cannot miss out Listed class and go straight to winning at this level?
3.15pm Newmarket
At last we have a proper race out of the top drawer with the Group One Sun Chariot Stakes over a mile, and here’s hoping the Good ground stays in place by race time to give them all an equal chance. With two winners at 16/1 in the last four runnings, favourite backers cannot count their chickens just yet, with both Andre Fabre (known as “God” to his fellow trainers) and Aidan O’Brien looking to burst the bubble of the odds-on Inspiral. Both Matron Stakes fourth Meditate and the Group One hat-trick seeking Mqse De Sevigne have clear chances, but as I don’t fancy one and can’t pronounce the other, Inspiral it is. She bounced back to her best with a vengeance at Deauville with an easy win in the Jacques le Marois despite a slow start, and she is more than good enough to take this if she is ridden to repel the late challenge from the French filly today.
3.35pm Ascot
A Heritage handicap over seven furlongs ends the ITV racing for this Saturday, and it’s a tough one to even try to solve with very few useful statistics that I can dig out. Four of the last 10 winners have been sent off favourite which would help – if I knew the prices at the off in advance which I don’t - and yet again, not one trainer or jockey has won this more than once in the last decade, so no help there either. Eight of the last 10 winners carried more than nine stone (and one was off eight thirteen) so that seems a good starting point, and leads me to one of “just” the 15 left - great start eh? Maywake has won two of his last three starts, both over this trip with the defeat when weakening late on over a mile, and he seems to be a gelding reborn judged on recent efforts. An added 6lb from the handicapper for an easy four-length win at Sandown may not be enough to stop him following up, and if he can handle the stiff uphill finish at Esher and win, then a fast run race here may just suit him to perfection.
OMMS
Something for the weekend
Red Danielle 1.30pm Newmarket Each Way
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