ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
We have plenty to mull over this week (that for me is the beauty of this sport, good or bad), and although I simply do not have the time or the form knowledge to go through every race at the Breeders’ Cup, it still deserves more than just a passing mention. I do have to stifle a chuckle at the typical America hyperbole calling it the “World Championships” when the Australian and Hong Kong horses are conspicuous by their absence, and coming at the end of a long hard season for the Europeans where this is more often than not an afterthought. Sadly , that is the World we all live on these days, and I cannot pretend it isn’t good racing – though I have to say that if I want an invitation in future! I have, in advance, tasked myself with finding two horses that I am willing to bet on with my own money, so here we go.
The temptation is to only pick British or European challengers but I have been to numerous Breeders’ Cups in the past – and come back potless after allowing my patriotism to rule my head. I won’t make the same mistake again (famous last words), well not in every race (if I bet), but we all want horses we know and love and I will start with Mawj in the Breeders’Cup Mile (turf) at 8.30pm. I have always been a fan of Saeed Bin Suroor who has been nothing but helful to me over the years, but he has become the forgotten man since the emergence of Charlie Appleby at Godolphin, and he seems to get seconds when the horses are split out between the trainers. He has had a bit of a resurgence this year, headed by the daughter of Exceed And Excel who landed the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket at odds of 9/1, beating favourite Tahiyra by half a length with the third over seven lengths adrift. That form has been franked with the runner-up winning the Irish 1000 Guineas, the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, and the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown, all while the Godolphin filly stayed at home. It looks to me (conspiracy theory time) that this may have been her long-term plan, and she reappeared at Keeneland to take the Grade One Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Stakes on her only run since last month, making 500 Group wins for her trainer in the process. She was pretty fresh that day so the race will have done her good, and although up against the males for the first time here, we know she has travelled well and settled into a different time zone.
Auguste Rodin was sorely tempting in the turf but I am going for a different O’Brien runner, this time in the turf sprint at 11.25pm. I am more than happy to admit in public that I will be screaming for Nunthorpe winner Live In The ream for Epsom trainer Adam West, and I know that he feels this track will play to his strengths, but if he goes off too fast as I expect, then he may be picked off late on. Aesops Fables seems to have sneaked in under the radar and perhaps rightly so with a season comprising of six runs without a win, but if Aidan and Ryan think he is good enough to take his chance, he probably is. In my opinion he ran his best race of the year by some margin last time out when third in the Prix De l’Abbaye at Longchamp, beaten a length and a short-head at the line when staying on strongly, and if he gets a fast pace to attack from that may play into his hands. Add the quicker ground here which should suit the son of No Nay Never whose offspring fare best on Good or Good to firm conditions, and you can see why I think he is overpriced – though in this cavalry charge he will need Ryan at his very best to get to the front where it really matters.
Secondly, best of luck to jockey James Doyle who is leaving his job at Godolphin to ride for
The Emir of Qatar’s Wathnan Racing, all very amicably from what I hear. He was always too good to be second jockey anywhere in my view but it was hardly Willaim Buick’s fault that he has gone from strength to strength, leaving James picking up seconds at best and finding yearly his winner tally dropping accordingly. He should and will appreciate a fresh start with the burgeoning owners who quite frankly are relatively new to the scene but with pretty much bottomless pockets, and although I cannot see them rivalling Godolphin in my lifetime, they look all set to join the powerhouse owners in the next few years, as long as they don’t get bored with the sport. With the obvious likes of Courage Mon Ami to look forward to it may start of as quality over quantity for James for now, but he remains ne of the very best in the saddle, and won’t exactly have to go begging if he fancies some outside rides.
Talking of quality over quantity, just the four races cherry-picked for this weekend…with racing currently 50/50 at best to even go ahead!
Saturday Racing
2.25pm Wetherby
Plenty of top-class staying hurdlers were entered here at the early stage in the hunt for the £28,000 winners’ prize, headed according to the betting by the classy Thyme Hill. Looking back though the stats to 1997 (26 runnings) as is my guilty sin, I note that: all the winners were priced at 12/1 or shorter, all came from the top four in the market (at the off), all who had a rating were rated higher than 135, and 25 had raced twice or less this season, with 20 making their seasonal debut (no big shock there). Add those together and we lose a solitary horse in Ambitious Fellow leaving us with five to pick from and it may all boil down to race fitness on the day. Dashed Drasher is an old favourite but he is yet to win over three miles though his second to Sire Du Berlais in the 2023 Stayers’ Hurdle certainly reads well and he did win first time out last season. He can go well but Thyme Hill has won on his return in four of the last five seasons suggesting he may have the edge. His stable are in good form and there is no issue with the three miles having won over this distance four times and even at 2/1 he will do for me today.
3.00pm Wetherby
For many, the Charlie Hall Chase means the jumps season is now up and running and with the names of the likes of Cue Card, Bristol De Mai, and Bravemansgame on the trophy, it clearly takes a good one to win this. Once again I have 26 runnings to work with, but this time things are not quite so clear – I wish they were! Age groups don’t apply to any of this field (no five-year-olds and no 11 year-olds either), while we have seen winners at odds ranging from 1/3 to 40/1 so “nothing to see here” and I will have to use the grey matter instead for this contest. Sadly we have a stupidly small field to work with and it all points to a straight up battle between Bravemansgame who won this last year, and Ahoy Senor, a personal favourite who is reported to be in good sorts at home. At the current prices, and with the Nicholls horses a bit in and out last weekend, I will stick with Lucinda Russell’s chaser who has another big race in him this season. A big strong powerful galloper, he can make mistakes at his fences which is the obvious potential issue, but he is relentless once he get into a rhythm and on the horrible ground I am expecting by Saturday, his stamina may see him hold off his speedier rival with a clear round.
3.15pm Ascot
We had to throw a decent handicap into the mix if only to look for something at a bigger price, and this two-miler certainly fits the bill. Once again I will start with statistics and have found out that we haven’t seen a winner in 25 running priced bigger than 14/1, and there has only been the one winner (from 40 runners) over the age of seven. Only one has been rated above 144, and only one lower than 116, and if we take those as fact (I wish), then we are left with seven horses to work with. Teddy Blue represent Garry Moore who has won this twice and placed with numerous others and he should go well, though his best winning mark is 8lb lower than he faces here, and that points me in the direction of Rare Middleton for Paul Nicholls. A lightly raced four-year-old who returns from a wind operation (which could bring plenty of improvement), he makes his handicap debut off a mark of 117 which seems pretty generous when you consider he was an 11 length third to Nusret last season and he is now rated 139, and although I am wary that some of the stable’s horses have looked as if they will improve for the run, the stable know the sort needed having won this twice and he will do for me.
3.45pm Ascot
Someone is having a laugh at my expense as we end with the Sodexo Gold Cup over fences and over a fraction shy of three miles where as I start to write (pre declarations), we have a 10/1 favourite – pretty competitive then! With “just” the 17 runnings to work with the stats tell me absolutely nothing so we will have to use another method to predict the winner (a crystal ball may help). Larry won this in 2021 off a mark of 132 and only has 3lb more this year and he can go well for the Moore team, but the narrowest of preferences is for top-weight Eldorado Allen as an each way option. Joe Tizzard’s nine-year-old was once seen as a future Gold Cup winner but is yet to live up to those lofty aspirations, though he has won four times over fences and accrued over £320,000 in prize money. More importantly he has won on heavy ground which seems likely by Saturday afternoon and although he will need to be spot on to carry this weight on the going, he is the class act here and can go close at a bigger price.
Something for the weekend
Sean’s Suggestions:
Rare Middleton 3.15pm Ascot
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