A couple of winners pinpointed to start the New Year last week but the going is truly horrendous pretty much nationwide at the moment, with meetings abandoned left right and centre making winner finding that bit trickier – and if anyone tells you otherwise then don’t lend them your wallet!
Before I start my second Cheltenham antepost article, a brief word for local to me trainer Zoe Davison who passed away on Sunday shortly after landing a double at local track Plumpton via Brown Bullet and Mr Jack at the unacceptable age of just 60. To my eternal shame I never did get round to visiting the yard, being far too obsessed with the larger more fashionable stables, but I have learned my lesson there and plan to go to see the smaller yards as soon as this covid issue is all over. All I can say is I have never heard or read a bad word about her in all my years, and that the outpouring of grief at her passing seems more from the heart than for others in the past, and racing has lost a great character who fought to the very last as racing folk are inclined to do. My thoughts go out to all her family, and I can but hope that the yard retains or even expands the support of local owners and keeps going and landing winners in her memory.
Meanwhile, I see this as Part Two of a Cheltenham look having run out of space last week, and now seems as good a time as any to start to delve deeper into the novice events – assuming we have a Cheltenham of course (though crowds seem highly unlikely at this stage of affairs).
As you would expect at this time of year, the markets react to any run by any novice in any contest and are usually over the top in doing so, but time to stick my head above the parapet and offer up some opinions, good or bad, on those currently deemed as potential contenders. Third Time Lucki starts our little list after scoring comfortably at Kempton on Boxing Day despite failing to run in a straight line late on and is now as short as 20/1 for the Supreme Novices Hurdle on the opening day. At first glance he looked to be a lucky winner (pun intended) with challenger On To Victory falling two out, but he already had that one’s measure and won despite looking pretty green once left in front. He did power away late on but remains questionable at his hurdles, though with improvement likely, that price does look about right to me.
An hour or so later, Shan Blue took the Kauto Star Chase for the same trainer jockey combo (the Skeltons) where he outjumped my fancy The Big Breakaway for a comfortable success. He was idling a little in front and I do wonder whether the result would have been very different with a clear round for the pair of them, but he jumped far better than his rival and deserves all the accolades he is now getting. If you are a glass half full type then the Tizzard yard seem out of sorts and The Big Breakaway can do better with intensive schooling, but eternal optimist as I am, I can’t guarantee the pacing will be reversed at Cheltenham, so I will be keeping my power dry on these two for now at least. If they do meet at Cheltenham, they will have to square up to Monkfish from the Willie Mullins stable, who kept his unbeaten record over fences at Leopardstown over the holiday period. Stamina is clearly his strong point having won the Albert Bartlett over hurdles last year and a fast run RSA Chase looks likely to be right up his street. Like many I have seen recently his jumping needs a bit of polish (though after only two starts over fences he is still learning to be fair), and at 9/4 I will again await race day before placing any bets on the now seven-year-old, though as things stand he is at least a worthy favourite even if that price is ridiculous in what should be a very competitive event.
In Ireland on Boxing Day afternoon two decent sorts put down solid claims for their respective races, starting with the unbeaten Zanahiyr in the juvenile Hurdle where he landed the odds quite easily in the end. I am not sure what he has actually beaten so far (the runner up here had won a small race in France and was having his debut for Joseph O’Brien), while the going saw a finishing time of close to 25 seconds slower than standard, and for me the 3/1 for the Triumph Hurdle is far too skinny. Runner-up Busselton is as big as 40/1 which seems far more tempting as he can only improve for his first start since May, though the very different going we are hoping for come March may have an even bigger influence on the result. Franco De Port took the Racing Post Novice Chase over two miles and a furlong and put in a perfectly satisfactory Arkle trial as far as I am concerned, though Felix Desjy went far too fast early on considering the going and his fate could be guessed at a long way out. The first three home (Darver Star was second and Felix Desjy third) are all above average, but of there isn’t something better than this trio for the Arkle, then in my opinion we are in for a substandard renewal, though if Shishkincontinues his progress it could be all over bar the shouting. In all honesty, the Wayward Lad Chase at Kempton was a bit of an anti-climax with just the four runners, but Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old did impress, coming home thirteen lengths clear. The time was OK but nothing better than that, and I thought I spotted a few jumping errors as in he needs to put himself right more often than I would like to see. His back legs get dangerously close on occasion and although he is clearly a class act, he beat a horse rated eighteen pounds his inferior, here which is nothing to write home about. Can he win the Arkle – very possibly – but at odds of 5/6 or worse he won’t be carrying my money just yet with plenty of potential challengers yet to come out of the woodwork.
Back to the novice hurdles now and I was a bit of a critic of the hype about Appreciate It prior to his run at the end of December – but not any more. He had the well regarded Ballyadam close to sixteen lengths adrift at the line despite never needing to be shown the whip, and although his turn of foot may not be electric, it is certainly more than enough to make him a major contender for the Supreme Novices though at 11/4 all the value has gone for now. For me he already has the stamp of a chaser and whatever he does this year, I may well scour around for a price for the 2022 Arkle where we may yet get better value. One horse I really do like is The Big Getaway, Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old novice chaser who absolutely hacked up over two miles five at Leopardstown on just his second start over fences, and with the promise of a lot more to come. Whatever the rest of the racing media claim I felt he was being educated at his fences by jockey Paul Townend which will serve him well in future races, and perhaps short of speed for the Arkle, and short of stamina for the RSA, I will happily take a little of the 16/1 as a 20/80 (20% win 80% place) for the Marsh Novice Chase which seems his most likely Cheltenham target. If he does take that route, then he may well run in to stable companion Colreevy though I was anything but impressed by her success at Limerick when she won despite a few unseemly errors on horrendous ground in a five horse race where only three finished with the odds-on Asterion Forlange one of the two fallers. Heavy ground seems a prerequisite to see her at her best and I really hope that is not the case at Cheltenham, meaning I am happy to ignore her chances at least until race day when we see the actual going and the final line up, and with a back-up plan of the Mares Chase, who knows where she will turn out for ante-post purposes. Similar going may be needed to see then best of Annie MCwho took a mares’ chase at Doncaster very easily but trying to upgrade that to make her competitive at Cheltenham is beyond my little brain with runner-up Cut The Mustard failing to stay I feel the form could be pretty suspect, despite being a Listed contest.
Lastly, and finally, a horse worthy of serious ante-post consideration in the shape of the Paul Nicholls trained Bravemansgame who took the Challow hurdle at Newbury by the scruff of the neck, making all and coming home an easy ten length winner. When his trainer compares him to Denman we all sit up and take notice, and although it seems unlikely he will go on to emulate the stable superstar, he is a tank who will take some stopping if getting to post for the Ballymore Hurdle which looks ideal for him. Sadly he is now as short as 4/1 for that contest but that will surely be the aim and if he runs and wins again in the meantime as expected, then that price can only shorten. We have to hope his two form rivals in Appreciate It and Menier head elsewhere but if they do, (or possibly if they don’t), he does look one of the better bets uncovered in recent weeks.
Saturday Racing: (all cards subject to getting the go ahead sadly)
1.25pm Chepstow
An interesting race if they can survive the inclement weather though some of the more intriguing early entries have given the race a swerve. An easy win here will see the victor leapfrog up the Triumph hurdle market and it looks, on paper at least, to be a straight fight between the David Pipe trained Adagio, and Gary Moore’s Nassalem granted clear rounds for all the runners. Nassalam is the higher rated of the pair after two very impressive wins at Fontwell. This is a very different challenge to the figure of eight Sussex track and it will certainly be interesting to see if he can skip clear of this far better field, or whether being taken on early for the lead could see him in a lesser light, but I know the stable think the world of him and those who take the 14/1 for the Triumph before this race could well be sitting pretty if he routs them as hoped. Adagio is certainly a classy rival after a second in the JCB Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham in November was sandwiched by successes at Warwick and then back at Cheltenham though it will be interesting to see if he can peg back the likely front runners. Elham Valley turns up after one run and one win at Sandown but may be lacking in experience and open to jumping errors when the taps are turned on by the others, but is one to keep an eye on, as is maiden winner Pyramid Place who looks to have plenty to find and the one raced Yggdrasil who was third to Eltham Valley at Sandown on his only start and may well reverse those placings granted even nominal improvement, and he could yet be the each way alternative to the front two in the betting.
3.10pm Chepstow
The Welsh Grand National revisited after we had a look at this race before the original running only to see it called off. No need to reinvent the wheel so I have copied last time’s column with the necessary amendments being a lazy so and so.Once again, heavy going will make the three and three quarter miles even more of a mountain to climb. Once again I have started with the stats in an attempt at getting the number of potential challengers down to something even I can handle, and the first things that jumped off the page is the fact that all of the last 23 winners had come home in the first six last time out, which takes out plenty of this field. Only one of the 23 had won over this trip before, so two more drop out, though after that we are having to make less accurate assumptions as the stats run dry. Only two of this line-up have won off the ratings they are lumbered with this afternoon from the remaining list, and that leaves me with Vieux Lion Rouge and Big River as my two against the field as they both handle heavy ground. Age is possibly against the David Pipe trained twelve year old, yet he was so impressive at Aintree last time I have no hesitation in including him with his four pound penalty, while Big River can only improve for his third at Cheltenham and could sneak into a place at a decent price.
11.52am Wincanton
Now we can add in horses with multiple declarations just to make an already tricky race that much harder, with preferences little more than a pointer as we wait to see which meetings do or don’t go ahead over the next few days. Both Dr Richard Newland and Paul Nicholls have won this twice in the last six years, and with the good doctor absent, we need to start with the two Nicholls runners. With the point to point form of Broken Halo a little patchy (the runner up is still a maiden but the third has won twice since in bumpers) it seems sensible to focus on Flash Collonges here with Harry Skelton in the saddle. A winner at Exeter on his debut he then fell at Doncaster at the fourth before coming home a half-length second to French Paradoxe at Newbury when sent off the 4/9f (ouch). The increase in trip today looks ideal as he was staying on at one pace after being headed that day, but he is no good thing and needs to do more to win again today and it may be worth looking elsewhere for an alternative. Malinello is the obvious alternative after winning very easily last time out at Market Rasen and he could well be the one from this field most likely to go on to bigger and better things. The six-year-old seemed green after hitting the front and can be forgiven an error at the last when cruising but may do even better if held up longer in this better company, though I would be far happier if the Ben Pauling stable were firing in more winners. Fishkov came under serious consideration as an each way option for Harry Fry and will be better suited by this trip as will Party Fuzz who ran well when third last time out and may do even better now on his second start after a wind operation.
2.05pm Wincanton
Well, I certainly wasn’t expecting just the three runners when listing this as a race to work on though it does still at least look like an interesting contest. Messire Des Obeaux made his debut over the larger obstacles as an eight-year-old when successful over course and distance last month and wouldn’t be the first of his age group to win this novice (perhaps surprisingly) after Hell’s Boy (2011), Oscar Whisky (2014), and Whisper (2017), though whether he is as good as those is open to question. His hurdling form gives him every chance here if he transfers that to fences but even then, he may struggle to cope with Protektorat who has really caught the eye at both Carlisle and more recently at Cheltenham when pulling clear of his field late on. Lieutenant Rocco isn’t a bad horse by any means and will win other races but even he looks booked for third in this line up, though I will not be having a bet – falsely run races often see jumping errors and a watching brief is very sensibly advised in a field this small where anything could happen.
12.05pm Kempton
Not the race I originally hoped for with five of the nine declared making their debut over hurdles, but it is what it is and something has to win it. Bannister brings the best form of those with hurdling experience after a win at Southwell and a fifth at Auteuil last time out, but he looks plenty short enough to me and others certainly appeal more at the prices when you consider he has to give six pounds or more away all round. Tinnahalla ran well for a long way when fourth to Goodbye Stranger at Newbury and could get involved if ridden with a little more restraint here by Aidan Coleman, but Table Mountain stands out if she can jump a hurdle, of course. Now in the hands of Tom Symonds for her winter career, she romped home in a Class Three handicap at Ascot on the flat last July over two miles, before being upped in class unsuccessfully in the Group Three March Stakes at Goodwood and the Listed Noel Murless Stakes back at Ascot. Moved on from Andrew Balding’s for 57,000 Guineas at the Autumn Sales she gets her filly allowance leaving her carrying seven pounds less from all bar fellow filly Epsom Dream, and thirteen pounds from the likely favourite, and if she has been freshened up by her new surroundings, she should be able to get involved at an each-way price.
12.35pm Kempton
Eight previous runnings of this race and eight different successful trainers which hardly helps our cause when it comes to statistics. It Sure Is intrigues as Nicky Henderson returns him to hurdles after just the one start over fences when a distant third at Newbury, though the step up in trip and first time cheekpieces smell of desperation and he may simply be no good in the end, a real rarity for his all-powerful stable. Barbados Buck’s has two wins at Southwell to his name, the last of them by a hard fought neck, and although nothing trained by Paul Nicholls can be ignored, others may have more room for improvement. Bobhopeornohope has the best name in the field as well as winning form at Exeter and Doncaster and looks sure to be even happier upped to this three miles plus, yet Undersupervision is the one I will be backing. Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, the son of Doyen was bought for £130,000 after winning a point to point at Loughanmore by a length from Banbridge and followed up with a novice hurdle success at Hereford over a furlong further than the three miles and half a furlong he faces here, and although that form may not add up to a hill of beans, he did do it nicely enough in the end. Tactically adaptable he can make the running or quicken up from off the pace, and if he builds on that experience as hoped, he can win this though I doubt we see the very best of him until he faces up to a fence in the future.
2.20pm Kempton
One of the best races of the day, quality wise, with the likes of Oscar Whisky (twice), Rock On Ruby, and Wholestone successful over the years. Stats are there to be broken I admit but interesting just the one nine-year-old has won this in nineteen runnings (and never anything older), suggesting we could (at a push), put a line through second favourite Younevercall as well as Summerville Boy and on The Blind Side (who, incidentally, looks overpriced at 16/1 for a place for Nicky Henderson and Nico de Boinville). Amusingly, only the one eight year-old has come home in front as well, which gets rid of the rest of the field with the sole exception of McFabulous. Trained by Paul Nicholls, he looked as if he failed to get the three miles when a still respectable six and a half length third to Thyme Hill at Newbury in the Long Distance Hurdle despite hanging right throughout. Although I would prefer him to run straight here, it is far less of an issue at Kempton which is a right handed track, and if he can repeat that effort after six weeks, he really ought to prove close to impossible to beat, with Thomas Darby my idea of the one for any forecast backers.
2.55pm Kempton
Only the four combatants here but with just the three pounds covering them all at these weights we should still be in for a close contest if they all give their true runnings. Master Tommytucker is the obvious starting point being trained by Paul Nicholls who also trained Silviniaco Conti who this race is named after, but he really needs to bounce back from a thirty-nine length seventh at Cheltenham last time out with no obvious excuses to get involved in the finish here. He may well end up as the hare to catch in this field but he is the only course winner in the line-up which has to count in his favour, and he has as good a chance as any on his better efforts. Forecast favourite Imperial Aura has now won four of his six starts over fences which is some record, but he does look very one paced on occasion and I wonder if as slowly run race could yet see him caught flat footed when the chips are down at this track. With Clondaw Castle another seemingly lacked a change of gear it might be worth taking a chance on Riders Onthe Storm for Nigel Twiston-Davies once again. We do have to forgive his return to action at Cheltenham when a distant third over a woefully inadequate two miles, but with that run under his belt and upped in trip, he should do much better. Two wins at Ascot in December 2019 and February 2020 (in the Grade One Ascot Chase) suggest this is his time of year, and although he has luck on his side that day (Traffic Fluide fell at the last), he already had the measure of Cyrname at the time which makes the form stand out in this company. Once again, he can’t be described as any kind of a good thing, but with a clear round he has a sporting chance in yet another race that seems to put forward more questions than answers.
Sunday Racing:
1.00pm Naas
Mares only for this Beginners Chase over two miles and three furlongs, but with no winners priced at bigger than 5/2 in the five runnings so far, we need to be looking at or very near the head of the market for starters. The better horses entered at the early stage are sadly conspicuous by their absence leaving us with what, on paper at least, looks like a pretty ropey bunch with recent decent form thinner on the ground than my hair these days. Something Sweet is the only distance winner in the seven horse field suggesting she is worth a second look, though she was last seen coming home a thirteen length sixth at Leopardstown over further, when looking a touch one paced. She should certainly find this a lot easier than a 0-123 handicap to be fair, and if she goes off at 4/1 or bigger then an each way bet could well be on the cards with first or second place well within her reach against these rivals. Three paces from nine starts for Miss Pernickety looks good at first glance but she is proving very hard to win with for Joseph O’Brien and may well run acceptably again here without managing to get her head in front, leaving her as the most sensible option for the forecast in a very weak renewal.
1.30pm Naas
Two miles next in this interesting novice chase where the last ten renewals have seen Willie Mullins take this four times, and Henry De Bromhead twice. Both are represented again in 2021 (twice in Willie Mullin’s case), and it does loom more likely than not that the winner will come from one of the two stables yet again. If the tissue odds are to be taken at face value then Energumene is the Mullins first string here which makes sense with Paul Townend in the saddle, and he made it three wins in a row (one bumper, one maiden hurdle and one over fences) when running away with a Beginners chase at Gowran Park in late November. He jumped right on occasion that day, but still came home eighteen lengths clear with a decent front running performance, and with improvement likely, will take some catching here as well. Overall. the form doesn’t add up to that much with the exception of the third running well when second at Fairyhouse next time out, but he could do no more than win easily and he does look an interesting recruit to the chasing ranks. Stable companion Blackbow looks a serious rival here assuming a clear round after the eight-year-old fell at the third in a Grade One at Leopardstown on Boxing Day when well supported. That was a class above this and with a clear round he would be a very serious danger to all, while Captain Guinness is another for the mix if he can transfer his hurdling form to the larger obstacles as hoped after a comfy if not earth-shattering first success over fences at Fairyhouse. Not a betting race for me with far too many would be front runners, but interesting, nonetheless.
2.30pm Naas
A Grade One Novice hurdle to round off our weekend of action and Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have farmed this between them in recent renewals with the score 5-3 in the last ten years with just the two reversals. In all honesty I cannot work out the Elliott runners at all with Ragnar Lodbrok the clear form choice in my book, but Jack Kennedy on board Wide Receiver who “only” took a maiden over hurdles last time out. Is that a hint or is there more to it than meets the eye I wonder, but as I can’t be sure, I prefer to side with Bob Olinger from the Henry De Bromhead yard. He went in to the notebook with a very easy front running performance at Navan last month when coming home fourteen lengths clear of his field, and with this trip of two and a half miles looking his ideal, he ought to prove hard to catch. Blue Lord is perhaps the darkest of dark horses here (the race looks full of them) after winning over shorter at Punchestown and he could well be the one for the future but on bare form, that isn’t good enough and he will have to pull out all the stops to get competitive here.
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to podcast instead starting with Cheltenham thoughts here https://postracing.co.uk/2021/01/06/cheltenham-or-bust-06-01-21/ and followed by this weekends’ mutterings here https://postracing.co.uk/2021/01/08/its-on-its-off-no-wait-a-minute-it-might-be-on-or-off/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Malinello 11.52am Wincanton Saturday
McFabulous 2.20pm Kempton Saturday
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