Despite the imposition of another lockdown here in England racing continues behind closed doors, though I did get to witness the silliness of some of the rules on Wednesday afternoon thanks to a (pre lockdown) round of golf! Playing at Lingfield (a challenging course, by the way) we completed our round and headed off for one last socially distanced drink. To my surprise, the outside seats bordered the course so I was met by a couple of tables of trainers who had worked out that they could see the racing on the big screen from there -and enjoy a decent meal, a sit down, and a drink to boot. Being me, I only found out on the last day before the golf club closes down for a month, but in theory I could have just wandered in and watched the racing from there free of charge – yet I would have been banned/stopped a few metres further down the track, now ridiculous is that?
Next up we need to congratulate trainer Joseph O’Brien for winning the Melbourne Cup with Twilight Payment, his second success in one of the World’s most valuable and competitive events, and after only taking up training a relatively short time ago. Those who took the 25/1 will be the ones laughing loudest after the seven-year-old got home by half a length form Aidan O’Brien’s Tiger Moth and the Charlie Fellowes trained Prince Of Arran, leaving the home team clutching at straws for the minor place money. The success itself was obviously noteworthy (though I suspect we may now find British and Irish horses are not so well handicapped in future runnings), but more intriguingly, can Joseph eventually outdo his illustrious father? Of course, the “silver spoon” principle means he has started with the quality of horseflesh most can only dream of, but he is certainly off to an amazing start and it will be interesting to see just how many records he can break along the way.
With the Breeders Cup sadly taking place without me this year (am I bitter – you bet I am), my overall enthusiasm has waned a little I confess, but then reading through the media, it appears I am not the only one. With our flat season winding down rapidly and the jumps taking centre stage it seems a bit of an afterthought this year to me, though we do have a few with half decent chances, though I say that most years before they let me down. We have to remember this comes at the very end of a long hard season for some and after a journey across the Atlantic as well, but fingers crossed we can still add to previous victories. I won’t be going though every race (there are far more interesting contests to preview below), but I will make a few suggestions for those who fancy a bet. Running through the Saturday card looking for European challengers and the first possible runner we have Glass Slippers who has every chance assuming she has travelled well and is at her best. It does seem a strange target for a horse whose best form appears to be on going with plenty of cut in it which she is unlikely to see here, but she has won on Good to Firm at Beverley, and she is a class act if she lets herself down on the rock hard surface currently predicted (and which we would never race on here).
The Fillies and Mares Turf looks as wide open a contest as I can remember and best of luck to Peaceful (Aidan O’Brien). Terebellum (John Gosden) Audraya (James Fanshawe) and Cayenne Pepper (Jessica Harrington), though they do look up against it if Rushing Fall turns up with her A game for Chad Brown. At 12/1 I may well be tempted with a little each way on Cayenne Pepper who looked to be going the right way with an easy win at The Curragh last time out which may be the confidence booster she needed, but my bet will be in pennies not pounds.
It would seem fair to say that on paper our best chance of success has to be in the turf mile where we have six of the fourteen runners, with 2000 Guineas winner Kameko heading the early market. He ought to be able to handle the ground as well as any here, but I am wary he has been on the go since early June and rarely runs two races the same. At 7/2 he can carry other people’s money and I prefer Siskinwho has had a couple of months off to come here and was visibly impressive when winning the Irish 2000 Guineas on faster going in mid-June. Admittedly, he hasn’t seemed the same horse in two races since and is closely matched with both Kameko and Circus Maximus on Goodwood form, but at 11/1 I can’t resist and each way tickle, and I just get the feeling he may well have been targeted here more so than his market rivals.
Good luck to outsider Harvest Moon in the Fillies and Mares Distaff for trainer Simon Callaghan, son of Neville and an old friend of mine from his Newmarket days – he is now doing well over there but to be honest, his daughter of Uncle Mo has a bit to find here in the Michael Tabor colours and I will move swiftly on to the Breeders Cup Turf. The Irish dominate the betting here with Magical (5/2), and Mogul (7/2) for Aidan O’Brien, followed by Tarnawa (7/2) for Dermot Weld. Lord North (7/1) intrigues over the mile and a half for John Gosden who also runs Mehdaayih in a race that looks far too tough to call – though if I had a charity bet then Tarnawa would do for me, with her trainer insisting she will be well suited by the track.
Naturally we end with the big one, the Breeders’ Cup Classic on dirt, and although we don’t have a representative, with £2,345,000 plus for the winner, the race deserves a mention. There are arguments to be made for numerous runners including Tiz The Law, Authentic, and Maximum Security (who I am told looked a picture in his work the other morning), but after much thought I will side withImprobable. Ridden from off the pace at Santa Anita in the Awesome Again Stakes in late September he quickened up in the style of an improving animal to beat Maximum Security by an easy four lengths, and with his tactical versatility on his side I am confident we will see a huge run once again, with Irad Ortiz Jnr a decent jockey to have on your side.
On to the UK and Ireland next and although it may be wetter, darker, and colder, at least I understand the form a little bit better!
Saturday
2.40pm Aintree
Just the six combatants for this two and a half mile hurdle but with five of them making their return to action after a summer off, perhaps not as easy to solve as you might think. Not one of them came home first last time out, only three have won at this distance, and none at this track, so we need to put the jigsaw puzzle together even more than other weeks. Make no mistake, there are some very decent horses in this line-up and others with much more to offer as they gain in experience, and I suspect the form of this may well work out over the weeks or months ahead. I will admit that older horses do well here but I still hope for a winning effort from Navajo Pass despite only being a four-year-old. He does have plenty to find at the weights, but the Donald McCain horses are going well lately and as a son of Nathaniel out of an Authorized mare, the step up to this trip may well bring plenty of improvement. The fact that a youngster who has won £54k or so has to give weight to Ch’tibello who has won over £300k is not lost on me but those are the race conditions and he may well be the main danger, though I won’t be betting the forecast in such a trappy race to unravel.
2.25pm Wincanton
It was never the plan to cover a three horse race, but novices intrigue me as we look for the next Sprinter Sacre or Denman over the years ahead. All three won last time out, all three represent top yards, and two of the three are unbeaten over fences, so we should be in for a good race. It looks most likely that Ga Law and Grand Sancy will be vying for the lead from flag fall with Hurricane Harvey trying to come from off the pace, and although the Paul Nicholls runner will go off heavily odds on, in receipt of a stone I will side with Ga Law instead at a far better price. A winner at Fontwell and then Exeter over fences he isn’t the best horse here by any stretch of the imagination, but I think that weight differential may tell close home if as expected they go too fast early on, and that will hopefully be the difference needed to land my bets here.
3.00pm Wincanton
Good ground good prize money lovely track weekend racing – and just the six runners – go figure. Once again, the top yards are represented including Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Colin Tizzard, with Sceau Royal heading the market at a fraction of odds against. Once again race conditions leave the youngsters at a disadvantage on paper at least with the four-year-old Solo having to give three pounds to the favourite despite being rated six pounds his inferior, but having spoken to Paul at a stable tour at the beginning of 2020, I know he really thinks a lot of the ex-French gelding. A winner at Auteuil for Gerard Macaire he followed that up at Kempton for his new handler before failing to handle the track at Cheltenham. Although he arrives here with both a fitness and an experience disadvantage it seems fair to suggest his trainer knows a lot more than I do, and assuming he will improve with age he will do for me here, though Master Debonair isn’t out of it either.
3.35pm Wincanton
Once again, I am breaking my “I don’t do handicaps” rule for the Badger Chase, which many see as the start of the National Hunt season in earnest. AS always it is a cracker, and at 5/1 the field if we can find the winner (or even a place), then we will be in the money. Favourite Present Man pulled up here last season, but he did win it in both 2017 and 2018 (on Soft and then Good going), so I was a little confused to see his poor run was put down to being unsuited by the going (Good to Soft) last year? He is only rated two pounds higher than his 2019 victory and has to be considered, but is 5/1 any value, I am not so sure. That said, trainer Paul Nichols does farm this race with the last three winners and five of the last ten, but he is also represented by my Way and Danny Whizbang, the latter a lightly raced sort with room to improve further – though in my view he will need to. there are, without a shadow of a doubt, some decent horses here but most do seem handicapped accordingly, with the possible exception of Supremely Lucky who at 20/1 looks an interesting outsider. Trained by Dan Skelton, the eight-year-old has finished runner-up on all three starts over fences but then had wind surgery before returning for a pipe-opener over hurdles at Uttoxeter where he came home fourth in a decent race. Assuming that was to blow away the cobwebs for today he looks potentially well handicapped off a mark of 136 less Tristan Durrell’s seven-pound claim, and although expecting a win may be a step too far, a place at a big price is not beyond the realms of possibility.
Sunday
1.00pm Navan
No great surprise to note that five of the last six running’s of this race have fallen to the Willie Mullins (three) of Gordon Elliott yard, though with the first named perhaps surprisingly unrepresented this season, it’s down to Gordon to keep up that trend. Two and a half miles over hurdles on a softer surface will require plenty of stamina and that suggests to me that siding with Sire Du Berlais could be the one to be on after the eight-year-old took the three mile Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last March. Many felt the first time blinkers made all the difference that day and they remain in place this afternoon, though we do have to take his fitness on trust. If he isn’t up to the task, then Sixshooter could be the one to take advantage. Rated a good few pounds inferior to the selection, he has room to go on to better things this season after a battling win at Punchestown last month, though we have to balance his fitness advantage with just how much that race may well have taken out of him at the tender age of five.
2.10pm Navan
Not the biggest field ever assembled for a Grade Two Chase but it is what it is, and with any luck we ought to be able to bag the winner. Éclair De Beaufeu will go close for Gordon Elliott as he looks to win this race for the first time since Clarcam in 2017 and is an interesting one after his second to Chosen Mate in the Grand Annual at the Festival last March. If the market speaks strongly in his favour, I may be tempted to jump ship, but until then I am happy enough to go with A Plus Tard in the Cheveley Park Stud colours. Trained by Henry De Bromhead, whose horses are running well, his third to Min and Saint Calvados in the Ryanair looks the best form on offer here, and with the drop back to two miles seemingly in his favour, he does look the one they all have to beat despite giving plenty of weight away to my alternative suggestion, and needs to win this to be a serious contender for the Champion Chase of 2021.
2.25pm Sandown
Oh dear. I pick these races in advance as the ones that look likely to be the most interesting, but I have dropped the ball here with a miserly three runners, and only one winner according to the official ratings. If The Cap Fits looks suitably named as Harry Fry’s eight-year-old is rated twelve pounds superior to nearest rival Pym, yet somehow he gets six pounds from the Henderson horse thanks to race conditions. Add the fact that he is the only one of the three with a recent run when winning at Ffos Las and thus a fitness advantage and he is hard to go against, though be warned, his jumping needs fine tuning more than some and at odds on I will simply keep a watching brief. Of the others, Pym has something to prove after pulling up at Ascot and then Cheltenham last spring but is the obvious forecast call, while Dominateur has close to two stone to find with the selection and is hard to make a case for barring the “outsider of three” principle.
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to podcast here instead https://postracing.co.uk/2020/11/06/the-badger-the-breeders-cup-and-a-little-something-for-the-weekend/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Improbable 10.18pm Breeder Cup (Kentucky) Saturday
Ballycaines each way to small stakes 4.10pm Naas Saturday
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