PLEASE NOTE - ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN.
Well, everything was firmly in place for me to discuss the Arc and the new look fixture list,
but other events have unfolded since and I have changed horse mid-stream as they say (I think). Firstly, and with ZERO accusations against those concerned, I am a lucky man in that my colleague Ron Robinson watches the markets like the proverbial hawk before sending out a list of those horses well backed each day. Most days of most weeks he spots up a gamble or ten, some successful some not to be fair, but my concern is not the gambles themselves - it’s the lack of questions from the Stewards afterwards that concern me the most and social media will soon show you I am not the only one.
On Wednesday afternoon this week the ex-Irish Karloss had his first race for trainer Samuel Drinkwater at Sedgefield when he opened up at 11/1 or bigger before being sent off a 4/1 chance in a two mile one furlong handicap which he won by a couple of lengths with plenty left in the tank if needed. Prior to that (and this is my point), he had raced five times, being beaten 74 lengths, 126 lengths, 129 lengths, 88 lengths, and 74 lengths on going ranging from heavy to good to yielding, and all over tow miles or thereabouts. He ran off the same mark this week as he did when 10th at Limerick last November on his final Irish start, so it sems fair to say this was a MUCH improved effort. So, I hear you asking – was it the quicker ground, different track, change of jockey, new training regime, different food – what was it that brought about this 80 length or so improvement - and the answer is we don’t know, the on-course stewards did not even ask the question.
There are other examples but this is the one that stands out to me – you could go through the formbook with a fine tooth comb as a punter and there is no way in a month of Sundays that you would ever suggest him as the winner other than his past connections – and that is not good enough. May a well-backed winner can be justified by a long hard look back through the formbook and the acknowledgement that if I had worked harder and spent more hours it was far from impossible to suggest the victory, but in cases like this the few remaining punters not closed down via affordability checks are, in my opinion quite rightly, questioning the integrity of the sport, and I cannot for the life of me, other than budgets, second guess why the BHA aren’t looking into these “incidents”with a bit more vigour.
Meanwhile, to no great surprise the living legend that is Frankie Dettori has postponed his retirement and will head to California for a bit of sunshine and a new job stateside. Thanks to the wonders of social media some who do not deserve a voice are becoming heard with plenty of criticism of his about face but you know what, it is his life and he can do as he sees fit in my eyes. I have been lucky enough to run into him a few times over the years and he has been, to me at least, as amicable as his on-screen persona and I just get the feeling that he needs to feel loved by both the public and his connections in racing. The well-publicised if short-lived fall-out with the Gosdens may have helped him to decide to retire at the time, but he has seen nothing but support ever since and has certainly proved he has lost none of his skills in the saddle. I have often thought about retirement but the reality is, what would I do with all that spare time (I like the odd game of golf but not every day), and although he has a bigger budget for hobbies than I do, I suspect he realised that he may get very bored very quickly – and that simply does not suit his personality from the little I know of him. I can partly side with those moaning about parting with an arm and two legs to attend a retirement dinner, and for publicity purposes I would hope he would refund and cancel (or go ahead at a much reduced price for those who still fancy the idea), but the overall dissent needs to be balanced against our initial horror at losing the biggest personality in the game bar none, and we can all only hope that he returns to Europe next summer if only to ride one or two for Wesley Ward at Royal Ascot next June.
On to the racing…..and as always, those who are hard of reading can listen to the podcast here… https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/10/13/dettori-and-what-should-be-done-about-these-gambles-being-landed/
Saturday Racing
1.15pm York
We have an awful lot of races for two-year-olds to deal with today and as we all know, the balancing act of racecourse form with progress and potential is never an easy one. This is a prime example with the Andrew Balding trained Purosangue heading the early betting after finishing second at Ayr on his fifth start – and my each way alternative having just his second race. Step forward Harry Angel gelding Esquire, who made all to win a Hamilton maiden, looking as if he had plenty left in the locker if needed. He needs a step up in class after that victory, and it is interesting that trainer David O’Meara sidesteps the novice route to go straight into Listed class here, suggesting they think a fair bit of him.
1.25pm Newmarket
Ancient Wisdom has been off the track since finishing third at Ascot in late July, and he can Chief Little Rock who drops a class after his Curragh second, but Per Contra looks the best value at the current prices. Trained by “new kid on the block” Ollie Sangster, the Footstepsinthesand colt won his maiden by over three lengths at Chepstow and followed up by close to five lengths at Ffos Las, despite showing signs of inexperience on both occasions. He can drop out early so those brave enough may want to consider backing him early in the race on the exchanges to get a bigger price, and as I expect him to be even better suited by this softer going, he can go well though with only seven runners he needs to hit the first two to land any each way bets.
2.00pm Newmarket
Everyone in racing except me seems convinced that City Of Troy is the best thing since Frankel, and although he needs to do a whole lot more to be mentioned in the same breath as the unbeaten superstar, he hasn’t done anything wrong with victories at The Curragh and then by a wide-margin in the Group Two Superlative Stakes here on the July course in (you guessed it), July. If memory serves he did then miss an intended engagement after a minor setback and is coming back from three months off this afternoon, and although I cannot necessarily find one to beat him, I won’t be snapping up any of the odds-on either in a race where we may be best sitting back and watching – or adding him to any accumulators.
2.25pm York
Horses coming out of a single figure draw have won nine of the last 10 renewals of this contest with trainer David O’Meara winning three of those, and Kevin Ryan and Michael Dods snagging two each. O’Meara and Ryan are both out to add to those numbers with three and four runners here respectively, but before I delve into their runners let’s have a look at the facts from the last 10 years. We haven’t seen a winner priced bigger than 20/1 or shorter than 13/2, all the winners have been aged four to six, none have been officially rated below 92, and all last raced within 60 days. Add those to the food mixer (using current prices I’m afraid) and we have just two horses left, with the William Haggas trained Montaasib, and my each way suggestion, Aleezdancer. Trained by Kevin Ryan (box ticked), he has the benefit of 7lb claimer Curtis Wilson-Ruddock in the saddle, has won off a mark just 1lb lower than todays, and wasn’t disgraced in the Ayr Gold Cup when a three-length twelfth after missing the start. He was close to two lengths behind the Haggas runner that day but is a pound better off here before his jockey’s claim, and that may see him run well at a working persons price.
2.40pm Newmarket
Just the 34 runners declared for the two mile two furlong Cesarewich handicap won last year by the well backed Run For Oscar who returned a 4/1 chance, though in case we forget, Willie Mullins won this three times from 2018 to 2020 and he has three in this year plus a reserve. I can fully understand why Pied Piper is the early jolly for Irish trainer Gordon Elliott who has booked jockey Ryan Moore which catches the eye, but any value has already gone in my eyes and I will be chancing the David Pipe trained Wordsworth here despite his weight. Bought specifically with this race in mind he has his first start for the yard over hurdles at Bangor when winning by 13 lengths in a canter, and if he can recapture the form that saw him come home third in the Group Two Curragh Cup in June last year when in the care of Aidan O’Brien, he could surprise a few with Christian Howarth deliberately targeted as a top apprentice who takes 5lb off his back.
3.15pm Newmarket
Five runners for a Group Three at headquarters on perfect ground is just embarrassing and we can but hope that recent moves by the BHA will make future racing more competitive, but for now we deal with what is put in front of us. Arabian Crown possibly has the best form after wins at Sandown and Salisbury but I cannot bring myself to trust the Charlie Appleby horses at present, and I will take the risk on Gasper De Lemos, named after a Portugese explorer, apparently. Fourth to stable companion Chief Little Rock when easy to back on his Leopardstown debut, he stepped up on that last time out when staying on well over the seven furlongs at The Curragh, and if the son of Justify gets the mile and a quarter here, he looks a sporting alternative in a tricky contest to try to second guess.
3.50pm Newmarket
With nine runnings of this contest in the last 10 years the stats tell me very little except for the fact that three and four year olds have been responsible for eight of that nine, which is some kind of a starting point and loses half of this field if that trend continues. Maximilian Caesar would buck recent trends to win off a mark of 97 which leaves us with four, so what about their trainers? Well none of them have had the winner in the last decade but the Crisfords have had two of their three runners place, and that is enough to make Knight my pick. Second on his last two starts in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood and then only beaten a head by an in-form Chindit in Listed class at Sandown, there was a worry he will find this ground too fast for him, but that also applied to main rival Padishakh, while the remaining three-year-old Real Gain is interesting, but has to find plenty stepping out of handicap class.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Per Contra 1.25pm Newmarket (each way)
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