The most wonderful thing about being a racing scribe is that there is rarely or ever a quiet week with nothing to talk about – be that a good thing or a bad, of course. This week I thought I would start with a brief chat about the Punchestown Festival over the jumps, where plenty of the Cheltenham Superstars head aback in to battle, but at the end of a long hard season and on surprisingly decent jumping ground considering the time of year. Personally, I never get involved from a betting perspective as some equine stars will still be racing when perhaps they should have been roughed off ahead of next season, but money talks and the prize money on offer has certainly persuaded a few to go back to the well one last time, a decision some will now regret. As I write this we have already seen shock results aplenty with the odds on Monkfish soundly beaten and Envoi Allen pulled up with an injury in the Champion Novice Chase won by Colreevy, and that’s just for starters. For me, that rather removes (or at least diminishes) the gloss for the winners which seems a little unfair, and we have seen some first class efforts. We all know the Irish took us to the cleaners at Cheltenham, but the Brits did get one back at the away ground after Clan Des Obeaux took the Punchestown Gold Cup despite all the naysayers suggesting he didn’t have the heart for a real battle. Outbattling and outstaying dual Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo there will have been plenty of celebrating in the Paul Nicholls yard on Wednesday evening after Sam Twiston-Davies steered the nine-year-old home in front. Other than that, we have basically been watching the Willie Mullins show after the stable had five winners Tuesday, three more on Wednesday, and a further five on Thursday (though I am writing this before Friday is over and who knows how many more he will add to the tally). On the downside, punters can be left confused as most races he goes in “mob-handed” and wins with one of them, and I do wonder if it is time to at least consider coupling horses with the same trainer in the betting market to avoid all the conspiracy theories of skulduggery?
Meanwhile, I will keep banging the punters drum as larger business entities keep trying and succeeding in consolidating bookmakers together which can only be to the detriment of the man or woman in the street. Entain, already the owners of bWin, Ladbrokes, Coral, Sportingbet, and Partypoker are now looking to buy Tabcorp in Australia for £2 billion (no, that is not a typo), and for me are starting to get that bit too powerful. From a UK perspective, firstly bookmakers are now returning an off course SP – how does that work fairly when the bucket of bookmakers used can be effectively owned by a few market dominant companies? Secondly, what about cross company restrictions? If I have a decent winning bet (we can all dream) with Company A, I am quickly restricted to pennies, but I have already heard of occasions where those limits are instantly transferred across to sister companies, leaving punters everywhere scrapping around trying to get a bet on – but is that right - not in my view it isn’t.
Using a very tenuous Australia link, what does everyone else think about the rule changes for future Melbourne Cups that seem to drastically limit the chances of more British winners. The main gist is horse safety which I stand firmly behind, and although costly, I have no issues with pre and post travel veterinary inspections to ensure any runner is in peak physical health before partaking – assuming the same applies to home trained runners that is. The ones I don’t understand are the “no more than one prep race in Australia” and the “24 horses in quarantine” limits that seem set to try to mute the European challenge - is this an anti-competition thing and if so, what are they scared of (it’s a handicap for goodness sake).
Next on what is rapidly turning in to a who shall I upset next list, we have an interesting if underreported story from Dubai. To cut a long story short, assistant trainer Sultan Al Hajri was recorded giving an unknown substance to Visual Effect prior to finishing sixteenth in a maiden at Meydan in early March. He claims it was sesame oil, but it was all a bit “cloak and dagger” with the stable door closed after the groom left the box, and the syringe used removed concealed in a towel, very Dick Francis. After a hearing in Dubai the punishment handed down is a two year suspension, and therein lies my issue – I thought all racing jurisdictions were supposed to be working as one as best as possible for the future of racing. Whatever was in the syringe will always remain a mystery, but I still naively believe in innocent until proven guilty, and the fact is, the horse did not fail any drugs test (none were taken), so how is he guilty of an offence that means his livelihood comes to an end without real evidence. If he did dope the horse throw the book at him, I have no issues there, but I would like to think there would be uproar here at such a draconian sentence, and can only hope racings powers work together for a lot more uniformity in the future. Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see what happens next for Mahmood Al Zarooni whose eight year ban came to an end last weekend. From what I hear he does plan to reapply for his training licence, possibly at home in Dubai, and it will be interesting to see if he can get back to work having done his time, or will racings authorities not see him as fit and proper to ever work with horses again.
On to the racing…
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Saturday Racing:
Newmarket 2.25pm
Five furlongs for the speedballs here in a race won by Far Above last season for the James Tate stable, and where four and five year olds have dominated in recent years. The draw ought to be fairly irrelevant in a nine runner field where the Charlie Appleby trained Lazuli tries to be the first winning favourite since Sole Power in 2014 which is not a stat his supporters will want to read. He is clearly up to this sort of company with a length win over Tis Marvelous in September last year, but at 5/2 I’m afraid I prefer to look elsewhere in a race where each way punters can get involved. Judicial can go well fresh and is an old favourite at the age of nine, but generally speaking they get harder to get ready as they get older, and he may well strip fitter for the run, leading me to Dubai Station as my idea of an each way play. He has as good a chance as any on official ratings off mark of 108 (just a pound lower than the jolly who has to give him three pounds), and has his first run this afternoon for Robert Cowell who has a well-deserved reputation for handling sprinters. Second on his debut as a two-year-old, and a winner in this class on his first start last year for Karl Burke, there is evidence he comes to hand early in the season, and if his trainer has him primed for today he ought to run really well at a double figure price.
Newmarket 3.00pm
A mile and a half, plenty of prize money, a Group Two trophy – and just the five runners, someone somewhere needs to look for answers I’m afraid. I have no doubt that Pyledriver will go on to have a very profitable season and I am convinced he will be bigger and stronger with another winter on his back, but will he be spot on for the first of his races in what could prove to be a long season. I am a little wary that as a big stamp of a horse the undulations of Newmarket may not necessarily see him at his very best, while his run at Epsom reenforces that concern (though he was hampered), and for that reason I will go for an alternative this here. Al Zaraqaan has to be of interest but is taking a step up in class from handicap company, but I am quite taken with Sir Ron Priestley here representing the Mark Johnston yard. Second in the St Leger of 2019 behind Logician, he was kept off the track until earlier this month when he returned from an eighteen month break with a comfy win over further in Listed class at Nottingham. He looked as if the race would do him the world of good that day suggesting there is a lot more to come, with the mile and a half trip the main concern as connections feel he could yet be a Cup horse over even further. Very likely to make his own running here to try and draw the sting out of his speedier rivals, he never shins a battle even if they do get to him close home and I am rather hoping he can fend them all off to land my bets under the excellent Franny Norton.
Newmarket 3.40pm
The first of the five classics for 2021 and a big enough field of fifteen to suggest the winner will need luck in running. As I write Aidan O’Brien hasn’t named the jockeys for his trio though the assumption is that Ryan Moore will be on board Wembley who is the current 7/2 favourite. One win from six starts hardly screams 2000 Guineas winner to me, but then again the stable have won three of the last four runnings so what do I know. Second to stable companion St Mark’s Basilica in the Dewhurst Stakes last time out he finished one place in front of Thunder Moon that day, but was behind that rival in the National Stakes in September and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top this time around with the quicker ground giving the edge to the Joseph O’Brien colt in my opinion. Mutasaabeq looks a horse of immense promise and put in a very decent time when winning a conditions race over seven furlongs here mid-month and has been supplemented at some cost to take his place in the line-up. He does need to improve again but still looked pretty green that day and will get better race on race, and at 6/1, he is just about big enough to consider as an each way option. For those looking for something at a bigger price, Lucky Vega is expected to do better as a three-year-old and isn’t a mile behind the main protagonists for a 20/1 shot, a remark that also applies to Chindit who has a fitness edge over some after winning at Newbury and he looks overpriced at 12/1 if he handles the track this time around which is my main concern about his chances.
Newmarket 4.50pm
Listed class and Guineas Day – but just an embarrassing four runners which will hardly help the betting turnover racing relies on to survive and something needs to be done, possibly via qualifying points for races later in the season (just an idea). Won by Mishriff last season, this could well be a stepping stone for bigger and better things, but in a race that may go all tactical, I will wait and see before taking the for as anything special. Secret Protector looks likeliest to go off at the head of the market after a win in Dubai and a second here to Highland Avenue, but I am less convinced than the odds makers and I prefer the chances of Mohaafeth, already a winner at Lingfield and then over course and distance this season. Clearly not the easiest of rides, the son of Frankel did wander a little once he hit the front last time but I put that down to inexperience and can only hope it won’t be repeated. My main concern is a lack of pace to attack from today though hopefully Inigo Jones will tug them along from the off, and if this is run at a respectable pace, I am happy enough I have found the probable winner.
Punchestown 3.20pm
I won’t be betting over the jumps today as discussed above but that doesn’t take away from the interest even in a race with a very short priced favourite. Concertista is clearly a mare out of the top drawer, and after finishing a head second to Black Tears in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham when mugged close home, she fully deserves this prize and is priced accordingly in the market to do just that. Trained by Willie Mullins, the most interesting opponent has to be stable companion Burning Victory, who is having her first race in over a year after a fortuitous success in the 2020 Triumph Hurdle when Goshen unseated Jamie Moore at the last when in total command. Unbeaten after two starts over hurdles since arriving from France, her jumping has left a little to be desired but she arrives here fresh and looks the value each way call should the main protagonists be feeling the effects of a tough race or a long season.
Punchestown 4.00pm
A cracker of a contest for four-year-old hurdlers and I have to start by mentioning the rematch between Triumph Hurdle winner Quilixios and Zanahiyr who was fourth that day after meeting trouble in running. You can argue until the cows come home about that form with some suggesting the favourite was unlucky and others convinced it made little difference, though we ought to find out on Saturday afternoon. Add the fact that Willie Mullins has won six of the last seven runnings of this contest and that his Haut En Couleurs was third at Cheltenham and one place ahead of Zanahiyr, and we have a potential cracker on our hands even if we ignore the other six combatants. If I had to have a bet (and I don’t), then I would stick with Quilixios but the interesting one is 33/1 outsider Mica Malpic. Owned by the legendary J P McManus, he won his first start very easily at Compiegne before being sold privately, and followed that with an eased off last of six at the same track when the heavy ground was blamed, though I suspect he was not 100% for whatever reason. A tongue tie is added this afternoon and you have to wonder why he has been sent over from the Cottin yard in France if he is the no-hoper he appears – and I will be having a few pence each way at a huge price just in case there is more to it than meets the eye.
Goodwood 2.05pm
One look at the line up and interesting to see the likes of Cieren Fallon and Oisin Murphy riding in Sussex on Guineas day. Race conditions here mean that three-year-olds get thirteen pounds from their elders, and if you have the right horse to go to war with, that is a very healthy weight concession to take advantage of, and Lilac Road looks just the sort for William Haggas having won easily enough after making all at Kempton at the beginning of the month over the mile. Fit as a butcher’s dog after that, she is stepping up in class but looks to have been found a very winnable contest for some black type for her owners, and with Cieren in the saddle I won’t be looking beyond her here. 2/1 looks pretty generous considering she has upwards of ten pounds in hand on official ratings, with Maamora the one for forecast backers in this field.
Thirsk 2.40pm
One handicap as a week (one too many, some would say) and a full field of sixteen to play with meaning each way places for the first four home assuming no non-runners. 9/2 the field as I write for this mile event, but time to look at past statistics for any clues. Starting with the draw, it doesn’t look as relevant as I hoped with a spread from low to high, though I do note that stalls 7-12 have seen 15 of the last 23 runnings which is worthy of note. Nothing bigger than 20/1 has come home in front over the same period so in theory (and using current odds), I can lose five of the field, while two more are struck off on age grounds with zero winners over the age of seven. None have carried over nine stone seven so farewell to four more, though that is where past performance statistics come to a full stop. Left with a shortlist of Acquitted, On A Session, Queen’s Sargent, Tom Collins, and Jean Baptiste and I will, as always, mess about with forecasts and tricasts to pennies. If I had to pick one, then On A Session gets the narrowest of votes as he comes out of the favoured 10 stall, and at 8/1 he will carry a small each way bet of mine as well.
Churchill Downs 11.57pm Kentucky Derby
Not a race I ever have a very strong opinion on, but as a great advocate of International racing, not a race I can ignore either. I could pretend I know the form inside out and upside down, or I could be more honest and admit to watching replays and reading form and stats articles before drawing my conclusions. If you have ever placed a win single bet at a window in America you will have probably experienced the same look as I have – and the comment “you must be English”. That is because, in the main, a straight win bet simply doesn’t pay out enough money for your average on course punter who wants to get rich quick, and they are far more interested in tricasts and other exotic bets that I am yet to get to grips with. That makes listening to the experts all the more fun as they are inclined to name not one, but five or six in with chances to “fill the box” in their hunt for early retirement, but they rarely put their necks on the line with the horse they think will win. The betting suggests this is all about the Godolphin owned Brad Cox trained Essential Quality, the 5/2 favourite over here at least, and currently unbeaten after five starts. He held off Highly Motivated by a neck in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland last time out over a furlong shorter yet that rival is a 10/1 chance here – go figure. Helium also has an unbeaten record as does Rock Your World (who I really like the look of) and they could also have even more to offer, but at the prices and having spoken to friends at track work, others appeal more at far bigger prices for those willing to take an each way chance. After careful thought my each way play will be on the Kenny McPeek trained King Fury, a 33/1 chance who has a bit to find but who has had a very laid back preparation. In all honesty, he didn’t have the best of seasons as a juvenile with a couple of minor wins here at Churchill Downs over a mile and half a furlong, but the son of Curlin was always thought of as a three-year-old in waiting and they allowed him off to the fields to chill out after a fifth in the Jockey Club Stakes here in November. Returning last month at Keeneland when the thought was he needed the race, he ended up winning the Lexington Stakes in what was little more than an exercise canter, and that has seen him look a much improved beast in the mornings. Brian Joseph Hernandez rides and knows the horse inside out, and with winners at odds of up to 65/1 (Country House in 2019), in this race, all things are seemingly possible.
Sunday Racing:
Newmarket 2.25pm
This may not be the race I hoped for in advance but make no mistake, there are some bred in the purple fillies in the line-up today and there will be numerous winners in amongst the also rans I promise you. A mile and a quarter awaits the three-year-old fillies in a race won by horses of the calibre of Taghrooda and Lah Ti Dar for example, and you will note that both were trained by John Gosden who has taken this five times in the last seven years, a strong hint if ever there has been one. This year he relies on the once raced maiden Taslima, a well-regarded daughter of Golden Horn out of a Saddlers Wells mare whose breeding screams a mile and a half in the long term. Clearly a backward sort, she didn’t see the track as a two-year-old until coming home second at Lingfield in late December last year, suggesting she was immature and I do have to wonder whether she will continue improving as the season progresses. Oaks entry A’Shaari is the one they all have to beat judged on her debut success here on the July course in August last year where she beat Ready To Venture by over three lengths, but it is noted that was on soft ground, and conditions will be very different here. The runner up has won her maiden and placed in a Conditions race, but I am not as convinced as some that the form is hot enough to see her trading at 6/4 here. Sea Karats looks a sensible enough alternative for trainer William Haggas, and was the talk of Newmarket ahead of her debut after some sparkling home gallops. Sadly, things didn’t quite go to script as the 10/11f was denied a clear run at a crucial stage of the race before running on strongly under hands and heels to be beaten in to third in a photo finish. She was certainly an eye-catcher that day, looking as green as they come before getting the hang of things, and with nominal improvement she won’t be far away today either.
Newmarket 3.00pm
The unusual distance of nine furlongs next in a race won twice each by Sir Michael Stoute, John Gosden, and Andre Fabre in the last ten years, and the first two are represented again, though at different ends of the early market. Interestingly, four year-olds have dominated this contest in recent years with all of the last ten winners, yet Sir Michael’s five-year-old is trading as short as 5/2 with all the four-year-olds trading at 6/1 or bigger – interesting. Lavender’s Blue sits second in the betting for Amanda Perrett but is also “too old” according to the stats, but she does hold Fooraat on Kempton form, pushing me further down the betting for a suggestion. Freyja’s form behind La Luna doesn’t quite look good enough on paper at least, so I will take a chance on 10/1 shot Indie Angel – for the Gosdens who as mentioned, know exactly what is needed to win this race. Three of her four career wins have been over a mile, so no great shock that she was tapped for toe on her return over seven furlongs at Lingfield, but with that race under her belt, an added two furlongs, and Frankie Dettori in the saddle, she may well do considerably better here.
Newmarket 3.40pm
Not a bad race to end the weekend as the fillies go to war over the Newmarket Rowley Mile for the 1000 Guineas, our second classic of the weekend, though I have to say it does not look the strongest renewal I have ever seen. Alcohol Free possibly boasts the best form having won the Fred Darling at Newmarket for Andrew Balding by a short head, but she was all out to hang on over the seven furlongs that day, and isn’t guaranteed to get a truly run mile as a daughter of No Nay Never. She won’t be far away at the death and even at 5/1 looks an each way alternative to the jolly, but all eyes here will be on the once raced Santa Barbara, Aidan O’Brien’s daughter of Camelot who is reportedly something very special. The very easy winner of a Curragh maiden on her only start in September, the bare form adds up to very little with a few maiden winners in behind her that day, but her trainer waxes lyrical about her abilities at home (nothing new there for the commercial enterprise that is Ballydoyle), and today is her chance to prove that is not all media hype. Personally, I have already backer her at 9/2 for today so I won’t be deserting her now, but 5/4 is a silly price for a maiden winner and I won’t be going back in at that price, though obviously I am hopeful she wins and does so with style.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Lilac Road 2.05pm Goodwood Saturday
Dubai Station each way 2.25pm Newmarket Saturday
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