Well, we had a great week with plenty of winners to round off November as the calendar ticks over for another month – soon be Christmas and 2021 when hopefully we can put a terrible year behind us (I am talking Covid) and get back to what we all saw or see as normal.
Plenty of gambles have been launched again this week, some successful and others not so, and it got the little grey cells working overtime here at Trivass Towers – are trainers setting these up to keep under pressure owners happy in these restricted times and with lower prize money, and if so, is this a pattern we can expect to see continued in the months or even years ahead? To make my position clear, I have no objections to a good old fashioned punt (I just wish someone had told me well in advance), as long as the horse has run on its merits previously as per the racing rules, and in most cases, a good look back at the form shows me what I have missed and merely points out my own laziness in failing to miss the clues (though who has the time to look at every horse in every race in that much detail). That said, on some occasions we see horses who have started not at double figure odds but at triple figures in recent races then being punted off the boards and winning hard held, and those are a little harder to swallow. Clearly a wind op, change of stable, trip, going, jockey et al could well be the reason, and good luck to connections who pay the bills for getting a few quid on, though only as long as the authorities look at past races to make sure the punter in the street (you and me) has not been misled as to the horse’s true abilities. Personally, it makes winner finding close to impossible in those races (prior to the gamble, of course) which is hard to swallow, and could make those new to the sport lose faith in our integrity, and with racings finances largely dependent on income via bookmaker levy, that is something we cannot just sit back and allow to happen unwatched.
Oisin Murphy is one of the nicest jockeys I have ever had the privilege to meet, and it is very sad to see him banned for three months after a positive cocaine reading. I had and have no doubt whatsoever that he did not take cocaine himself or any other drug for that matter, but he admits to spending time with somehow who does (though he didn’t know),and that in turn has seen him contaminated which leads me to another question – are the limits allowed in anyone’s system too low for 2020 when the drug is rife? Before I get attacked from all corners for suggesting it is acceptable (it isn’t), I am simply pointing out that any one of us could unwittingly spend time with a “user” and thus pick up the relevant traces – but we don’t get tested so we would never know. I am 100% certain Oisin will learn from this and choose his friends more wisely in future, but if you can pick up enough from associating with others then I have to wonder if the levels set are way too low?
One last thing this week (I should call this bit bookie bashing corner), and why were the bookmakers betting each way one and two for the eight horse Tingle Creek at Sandown this weekend coming when we would normally expect one two – and three? There was a mini Twitter storm on this one with a surprising number siding with the enemy and pointing out the likelihood of all eight standing their ground was slim. With hindsight, they got that bit right (six left now), BUT if they got their book accurate enough then their place losses on the third would have been balanced out (and then some) by all those who lost their money on the two non-runners? Isn’t that the whole point of betting ante-post – the punter’s risk is losing their stake on a non-runner in return for the bigger price on offer – a 50/50 deal that the bookies now appear to be tweaking even more in their favour.
Griping over, and on to the racing…
Saturday
11.45am Aintree
A fifty-fifty mix of favourites and others in the six runnings of this race to date though 40/1 shot West To The Bridge caused an upset in 2018 so all things are possible. Comparing the form of lightly raced improvers is always a challenge and this race is no exception, with some interesting variables to consider. Mackenberg brings the best form to the table after a very impressive debut win over obstacles at Carlisle followed by a half-length second to Hooligan at Wetherby in a Class Two where his jumping probably cost him victory, and I suspect he will be sent off a pretty short priced favourite. Fly To Mars has to be of interest for Colin Tizzard but he has been off track since falling at Exeter over 20 months ago, and unless the market speaks wildly in his favour, he may well need this outing to put him straight. Backing favourites worked pretty well last weekend but I am going to oppose one here with the exciting hurdling debutant Dargiannini who absolutely bolted up on his debut in a Sedgefield bumper. Although well backed that day even trainer Harry Whittington was surprised with the ease of victory and if he can jump a hurdle, he could be a very smart prospect. He will be better over further in time so we don’t want a crawl here and he may even have to make his own running, but I await this start with interest and with an itchy trigger finger hovering over the Cheltenham ante-post markets.
1.43pm Navan
Unlucky thirteen runners at the time of writing and a tricky beginners' chase to try and deal with. Yes, we have a short-priced favourite here, but this is still a race worth talking about with the jolly seen as a livewire Cheltenham Festival 2021 contender. Step forward The Big Getaway, Willie Mullins’ six-year-old who looked decent enough over hurdles but has the stamp of a chaser about him. Already a point to point winner, a bumper winner at Punchestown, and a hurdle winner at Naas, his best run was an eight length third to Envoi Allen and Easywork in the Ballymore at Cheltenham, (with the decent The Big Breakaway in fourth), and if he can repeat anything like that over fences then he ought to come home alone barring any accidents. Sempo is his nearest market rival and will be staying on late over this trip but may find the selection has way too many gears for him, and I prefer Conflated for the places. A third and a second at Punchestown gives him an experience edge over most here and with the Gordon Elliott stable continuing to fire in winners, he could go well at bigger price.
1.50pm Sandown
Six runners and every one of them successful last time out so something has to give this Saturday afternoon. Allmankind is the best of them apparently (rated three pounds better than the field) and hacked up pulling a cart on his only start over fences at Warwick when backed down to the Even money favourite. A confirmed front runner that may be the edge he needs here with fellow front runner Ga Law the one who could prove to be the spoiler of those tactics are tried again. Hitman is harder to judge despite winning easily at Ffos Las where the opposition fell by the wayside barring runner-up Mack The Man but has to be seen as a danger, as do the rest of the field to be fair, in a race I will be recording for future reference when it comes to novice chases for the next few months at last.
2.05pm Aintree
Good luck to those who work the stats in this one as it is limited to three-year-olds, and all bar one of the eight winners have carried ten stone twelve – as do they all this season! On the brighter side trainer Alan King has won three of those races with L’Unique (2012), Nyanza (2014), and Midnight’s Gift (last year), though it should be noted all of them had raced over hurdles prior to this – and that remark does not apply to Her Indoors who is the stable representative in 2020. A lightly raced winner on the flat she peaked with a rating of 74 and is capable of winning a race if she stays, but with no evidence she can jump a hurdle 13/2 looks a pretty skinny price. The fact that Joseph O’Brien sends Scholastic over from Ireland for and £11,000 pot suggests the son of Zoffany has a solid chance and he has plenty of experience having won and placed four times from five starts and he could well be the main danger to Megan who powered home at Leicester on her first start since arriving from Germany. Less electric pace and more relentless galloping won the day there suggesting the step up in trip is ideal, and if he can get to the front, he will take some pegging back this afternoon on going that could well prove ideal.
2.25pm Sandown
My good mate Steve Smith-Eccles used to ride Tingle Creek who this race is named back in the late 70’s and for those of a younger age, he was one of the most popular horses in training not just ten, but possibly ever. Steve will be at Sandown if he can, knowing him to cheer home the winner, but the field looks a little weaker than some years with the obvious exception of Altior and Politologue. Once again fitness is the big question here with a back to his best Altior by far the likeliest winner, and last season’s Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Politologue the value alternative at 4/1. I don’t really bet odds on other than the occasional treble or accumulator and won’t be changing those habits now, but I can’t help but think Nicky Henderson’s charge would have been a much much shorter price barring his only defeat over fences by Cyrname at Ascot last year over further which seemed to take an awful lot out of him. A win at Newbury in February failed to placate his supporters before he missed Cheltenham, but connections report him back to his best, and if that is the case, even the 4/5 on offer would be seen as outstanding value, though I won’t blame anyone for backing Politologue each way at 4/1 as close to a bet to nothing.
2.40pm Aintree
Five runners but just the top three in with a chance if we use the rating as our guide, but a cracker of a contest nonetheless and a huge pointer to the Gold Cup at Cheltenham next March. The ever popular Frodon has the fitness edge today after winning on his return at Cheltenham in late October and it will be interesting to see if Paul Nicholls and Bryony Frost can cook up a way to use that to their advantage. He is a good horse but in my eyes, he comes up a little short of the other two so toss a coin between Santini and Native River. The first named was only beaten a neck in the Gold Cup this year by Al Boum Photo and is a class act but then again, Colin Tizzards’ Native River won this first time out last year and win the Gold Cup in 2018. The truth is we don’t know how race ready either of them are which makes betting a bit of a lottery, but I have always loved the selection who is lightly raced for a ten-year-old and will be betting with my heart on this occasion as I still feel he is the better jumper of the two.
3.00pm Sandown
Six losing favourites in a row in this contest suggests a case of punter beware though with a small field a double figure winner seems less likely. Much as trying something to oppose the favourite is a good way to start, sometimes that concept just doesn’t work out and I will be lazily siding with Cloudy Glen today with so many ticks in the right boxes. Trainer Venetia Williams has her horses running to form which is a positive, as is her 32% strike rate in the last two weeks, while the horse has more to offer at the tender age of seven and is the only last time out winner in the field after scoring over this sort of trip at Fontwell in November over a furlong and a half shorter. He wasn’t stopping at the end that day and should have no stamina issues here, while his jumping was acceptable despite jumping left on occasion which has to be a worry here, though I won’t be surprised if he runs in a different noseband today to reduce or remove that fault. On the down side, he does have to give lumps of weight away to some so I have at least looked for realistic dangers, and would suggest Pobbles Bay for the forecast. He may be ten now, but he has won off nine pounds higher albeit back in April 2019 while others have done more, but they look as if old Father Time is now catching up with them in their twilight years.
3.07pm Chepstow
Who knows what to expect here after Evens favourite Geordiedeschamps in 2016 and 5/6f Chooseyourweapon in 2017 were quickly followed by 50/1 shots Secret Reprieve and Nightboattoclyro in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Trainers Rebecca Curtis and Evan Williams have both won this twice in the last nine runnings but only the second named has a runner here so we have to take a firm interest in Can You Call, a bumper winner at Uttoxeter for his previous trainer before changing stables. A brother to winners Passing Call and Passmore he is bred to jump without any issues and could go well, but his current stable are without a winner in the last three weeks or so which has to be enough of a concern to make me look elsewhere. Take Your Time would be the obvious choice for Paul Nicholls after the five-year-old drew away nicely to score over this trip at Lingfield last month, but he has to give seven pounds or more to the field for that success, and I will take an each way risk on Slip Road instead. Trained by ex-jockey Sam Thomas, he was only beaten a length in a bumper here on his first start since March last year, and he still ought to improve for that race even if he was sent off the 2/1 favourite. This is his first try over hurdles, but he did win a point to point on debut suggesting he can both jump and stay, and at the forecast 7/1 he ought to give us a small profit even if a place is the best he can manage.
Sunday
1.10pm Punchestown
A fraction short of two and a half miles for mares only over hurdles next and a contest won by the odds on Minella Melody for Henry De Bromhead on the first running last season. This year he relies on Boher Cailin for the repeat attempt and she has to be of some serious interest looking to maintain her unbeaten record. A point to point win at Turtulla saw her sold for a bargain £30,000 before an all the way success at Clonmel in a maiden hurdle and although stepping up in class this afternoon I am confident of another big effort. She is a decent sort with more to offer but may have to play second fiddle to Finest Evermore here who has looked a machine since joining Willie Mullins with successes in a Cork bumper and at Tipperary and Listowel over hurdles. Still immature in her attitude at least, she has never really been asked to step up a gear as yet and is tactically adaptable (she can make the running or come from off the pace) which are good attributes to have, and now we finally know Danny Mullins will be in the saddle, I suspect she will win this with her head in her chest.
1.40pm Punchestown
Plenty of top class winners in the history list for this two and a half mile chase including Don Cossack, Djakadam (twice), Sizing John, and Min, in both 2018 and 2019. No shock to see trainer Willie Mullins dominates with five of the last ten winners and he is back for more in 2020 courtesy of Min and three others, though to be fair the whole field looks class from top to bottom. Min loos sure to go off at the head of the market and rightly so but he hasn’t been seen since winning the Ryanair in March and his fitness could yet be an issue. Stable companion Allaho looks a very serious danger based on his third in the RSA at Cheltenham and with just the three starts over fences and three years in hand of the jolly, he looks to be a very serious danger and destined for the top at the winter game. Again, he hasn’t been seen for nine months or so and today may be the day to go over the cliff once more supporting Samcro who may not have gone on to be the megastar everyone expected, but still has some useful form including the narrowest of wins in the Marsh Novices’ Chase at the Festival. More importantly (well, perhaps) he has had a blow out this season when third at Down Royal where he looked as if the run would do him the world of good, and as one of the only guaranteed race fit contenders near the head of the market (Battleoverdoyen is the other but I am quietly confident Samcro will reverse Down Royal form today), and at 6/1 or bigger I will dare to step in with a little each way if nothing else.
1.50pm Huntingdon
With up to eleven runners, I really hoped for a competitive event but on what we have all seen so far, it is difficult to oppose Shan Blue here even if the six-year-old has to give a few pounds away to the rest of the field. Trained by Dan Skelton and to be ridden by Harry, his two starts over fences have seen very easy successes at Wetherby where his jumping was as sound as a pound overall, and although he was decent over hurdles, he seems sure to go to even better things over fences. In my opinion, if he jumps round cleanly he should win, but if he doesn’t, then Fabulous Saga is an intriguing alternative. Formerly with Willie Mullins, he hasn’t been seen in action since March 2018 when seventh in the Albert Bartlett, but he has some decent form to his name including a defeat of Delta Work at Limerick and would be interesting if taking to fences after such a long absence. One worry is that he isn’t overly big and has obviously had his issues, but if Paul thinks he can take to the larger obstacles, then who am I to argue.
2.25pm Huntingdon
One of my favourite races at a track I have a lot of time for – but one where I rarely if ever find the winner! Trainer Nicky Henderson does well here and has had three of the last four winners including Top Notch last season, and he is back for second helpings at the age of nine. Last year he had the benefit of a prep race which is sadly missing this season, but he does go well fresh regardless and belongs on any short list. Dolos looks sure to be his main market rival here for Paul Nicholls and has his second run after a wind op which can often be the best time to catch them, but I still see him as a little short of this class and prefer to risk my money somewhere else. Nuts Well is in the form of his life and climbing the ratings but needs a new personal best to take this more valuable prize, leading me to stick with Top Notch today, adding Fanion D’estruval into my forecast combos as I am convinced he has another big race in even if it isn’t today.
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to podcast here instead https://postracing.co.uk/2020/12/04/can-top-notch-win-his-third-peterborough-can-min-become-the-first-9-y-o-since-2002-to-win-the-john-durkan/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Dargiannini 11.45pm Aintree Saturday
Slip Road each way 3.07pm Chepstow Saturday
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