ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
This week is another labelled “short and sweet” as I sit in a (cheap and nasty) Durban hotel ahead of my journey home with the delay caused by me being a cheapskate – a much more affordable flight with Ethiopean Airlines meant two added days in South Africa and a VERY long layover in Addis Ababa airport for my journey back to blighty!
Unsurprisingly I am not 100% up to date on everything going on in the racing word at home so we will stick with a bit about Saturday’s racing with the intention to get back to “normal” from next week onwards.
Saturday racing.
Ascot 2.20pm
Soft ground at Ascot in mid-July is a pain in the posterior make no mistake, and with the majority of recent form on far quicker surfaces it really is a case of punter beware at present. With eight winning favourites in the last 10 runnings and nothing priced bigger than 11/2 (Master Of The Seas last season) it makes sense to look at or near the head of the market, and with Quddwah unbeaten at the top of the market he will certainly have his supporters and rightly so, and with winning form on Good to Soft he should go well. That said, so should Sonny Liston, officially the best horse in the race off a mark of 114, and with some solid placed form on soft ground as well. Beaten a head by Wild Tiger in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot despite failing to get a clear run when needed, he deserves compensation and today may be his day.
York 2.35pm
Looking at statistics I would prefer to be drawn on the low side here assuming there is plenty of cut in the ground, and if that is the case, then I can understand why Clarendon House heads the market from the two stall. He should go well and looks the main danger to Starlust who may still be worth the risk despite a high draw in the eight box. An easy winner course and distance winner in May on a similar surface, he tried blinkers over a furlong further in the Group One Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot before weakening into eighth but runs without the headgear now over his favoured trip and in receipt of 8lb as a there-year-old, I feel he has every chance of a fifth career victory.
Newmarket 3.25pm
A serious race in recent years with City Of Troy winning in 2023, Isaac Shelby in 2022, and Native Trial in 2021 – so the winner this year has plenty to live up to. Paps Turf may well try to make every post a winning one so it seems likely there will be plenty of pace in the race bit working out who that suits best is not so easy. Ancient Truth is short enough at 7/4 for a horse who may have a bit of an attitude, while Aidan O’Brien relies on The Parthenon, yet to excite despite winning last time out but representing the master trainer who will know just how good he really is. In a race I really don’t like from a betting perspective, I may risk a couple of quid each way on Line Of Force, who may have been underestimated by the bookmakers. Unbeaten after two starts at Ripon and Carlisle, this represent a leap of faith by trainer Karl Burke, but the son of Calyx is yet to be seriously tested, and you never know how good they are until they are upped in grade.
York 3.45pm
Hamish landed the odds in this last season when beating Al Qareem by close to two lengths on a similar surface, though William Haggas has allowed him to skip the race this year in favour of stable companion Klondike, and I am hoping that is a huge clue to the chances of the four-year-old Galileo colt. A winner last time out, albeit by a head over this course and distance, he battled on gamely after a front-running performance to repel all challengers, and if the same tactics are employed this afternoon we may see the same result, with Richard Kingscote replacing Ryan Moore in the saddle.
Newmarket 4.35pm
Officially the best race of the day as a Group One over the six-furlongs on Newmarket’s July course, and with a cracking line-up set to go to war. Three-year-olds have ruled the roost recently with five of the last nine winners, and they dominate the early betting once more. River Tiber intrigues dropping back in trip and if he can reproduce his Irish 2000 Guineas third he would be a danger to all, though he did finish behind Vandeek as a two-year-old which gives him a little to find. The Crisford’s star colt disappointed when third at Haydock on his return after possibly pulling too hard, but he does have something to prove for now and is held by Inisherinwho won that day and reopposes here. Kevin Ryan’s son of Havana Grey dominated that day and although conditions may be a fraction quicker here, he looks the class act and the worthy favourite in this highly competitive field.
Chester 6.05pm
Seven furlongs at Chester seems harmless enough at first glance, but if they leave the course configuration as they did at the last meeting, it may be a case of drawn low – or stay home. Al Shabab would have been my choice regardless having scored over course and distance by a comfortable four lengths at the end of June, and it is noted that trainer Andrew Balding has won this race twice in the last six years. He does have a bit to do on official rating I admit, but will be popping out of the two stall which might prove advantageous, is clearly on the upgrade hence the step up to Listed class under Jason Watson, who ride him to victory last time out.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Inisherin 4.35pm Newmarket
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