In simplistic terms (a bit like me) there is just so much high quality racing this weekend in England, Ireland and France that the is precious little room left for me to wax lyrical about the goings on in the racing World with the one obvious exception. In my opinion, for what it’s worth, I never understood why the government felt racing could start to bring back crowds at racecourses when personal experience has shown me some (not all) of the great British public are incapable of following social distancing rules, but they did, though only for the one afternoon before new rules made their position untenable and the rest of the Doncaster meeting will be held behind closed doors. Much as I miss the track, the trainers, and all the social interaction so important to both my job and my hobby, lives matter more than sport I’m afraid and although I am no scientist, I have to assume the powers that be are getting far better advice than I receive via Facebook? Bottom line is I want racing back but preferably in the long term, and if we have to all sit it out a bit longer to make that happen then sadly, so be it.
Politics over and on to the racing – there is plenty of it, so some races have been covered in more depth than others.
Saturday
Champagne Stakes 1.50pm Doncaster
One for the favourite backers looking at all the past results with five of the last six obliging and seven of the last ten if you include joint favourite Outstrip in 2013. The Hannon stable (Dad then son) have won four of those renewals, suggesting the unbeaten Chindit is one to consider after his course and distance success on debut was followed by a comfortable Listed win in the Winkworth Stakes at Ascot. He certainly looks one for calculations but a look at the clock suggests the once raced Albasheer could be the one to be on for trainer Owen Burrows and jockey Jim Crowley. Easy to back here at the end of July when sent off at odds of 17/2 he simply pulverised the opposition to score by six and a half lengths despite looking as if he needed the run mentally at least. By Shamardal and out of a mare closely related to the great Nashwan, he is certainly bred to be above average and today is the next step on the educational ladder with connections hoping he could well be a serious classic contender for 2021.
Park Stakes 3.00pm Doncaster
Who can believe Limato won this back in 2015 and is here again this weekend looking for a second success at the age of eight and with a decent chance as well. A win here will push him ever closer to the £1.5 million career earnings mark which is impressive for a £41,000 purchase, and he is not passed over lightly I just wonder if he may have to settle for a place on only his second trip to this track. Plenty here have chances including One Master (who cost me money last time), and Molatham (open to further improvement), but I will naively give Wichita one last chance. His two wins from eight starts were both as a juvenile and he has failed to score despite four starts this season, yet even that form suggests he has a decent chance. A neck second to Kameko in our 2000 Guineas was followed by as length and a quarter third to Palace Pier at Ascot (St James’s Palace Stakes), a fifth to Mohaather at Goodwood (Sussex Stakes), and an eighth to Space Blues at Deauville over six and a half furlongs. He did look as if he wasn’t going forward that day which is a concern but his form (and official ratings) give him the edge, and like the lemming I can be on occasions, over the cliff I go – who is jumping with me?
St Leger Stakes 3.35pm Doncaster
The final classic of the 2020 season and perhaps not the race it once was. Thanks to breeding now more important than race prize money financially the tail is wagging the dog, and everyone wants to breed for speed – so who really wants a St Leger winner as a stallion other than National Hunt? Still, that doesn’t make this year’s renewal any less competitive I’m afraid and there are any number of decent horses entered here, plenty of them with something to prove. I have to tell you straight away that I doubt I open the wallet with more questions than answers, and English King now heading to France as I write, and that in turn changes the race dramatically. Galileo Chrome has been a revelation this season and clearly stays the trip and is one for the short list despite the rise in class for Joseph O’Brien, Hukum is fairly similar but has done the business at Group Three level, and Santiago won the Irish Derby before a good third to Stradivarius when failing to see out the two miles at Goodwood. Add in a personal favourite in Pyledriver (so impressive at York and ridden by fellow Evertonian Martin Dwyer) and you can see my quandary – which way do I turn? In the end it’s a narrow vote for Santiagothanks to the Aidan O’Brien entries and their abilities to influence the race tactically, but it’s a close call in a race I am equally happy to sit back and watch with a G&T Saturday afternoon.
Matron Stakes 3.10pm Leopardstown
What a race on paper we have here, though with the O’Brien family responsible for over half of the runners I am wary of any sizeable bets amid the potential tactical minefield. Ryan Moore remains on board favourite Fancy Blue for Donnacha O’Brien and that seems to be one of the biggest clues we have. Runner up to Peaceful on her seasonal return in the Irish 1000 Guineas she has won both starts since at Chantilly and then Goodwood (by a short neck and then a neck) over further, and at 7/4 she looks way too short with the return to the mile unlikely to be in her favour as she can start a shade tardily. Peaceful is her obvious form danger but appears to have been passed over by Ryan in which case I will be having a little each way on Champers Elysees instead if only for the fun of it. This is her first start at the top table following wins in lesser class at The Curragh, Galway, and finally Gowran Park, but she is the apple of Johnny Murtagh’s eye by all accounts and expected to put in a bold effort at the very least.
Champions Juvenile Stakes 3.40pm Leopardstown
Just the eight runnings of this Group Two contest and six of those have gone to trainer Aidan O’Brien including last year when the decent Mogul came home at the head of the field. He only has the one runner this season in Van Gogh and if we ignore his last run when eased at The Curragh and focus on his second to Military Style here in early August then he has a solid enough chance. The added furlong here looks ideal and may well bring out the best in him, but it’s a decent enough looking field and he may not get things all his own way. Jack Duggan certainly caught my eye when winning on debut at Tipperary at odds of 20/1 and if he improves as I hope, he won’t be far away for the each way players.
Irish Champion Stakes 4.10pm Leopardstown
If Ghaiyyath turns up at the top of his game here, then it is difficult to see past him in this small field event. I do suspect Armory will try to go with him early doors and force him out of his comfortable stride by asking for more early on, and if that is the way things pan out, then a cheeky little bet on Sottsass could surprise them all. I do fully appreciate I am going against the best horse on the planet at present according to official ratings but I am wary of the three O’Brien horses finding a way to stop him tactically, and for that reason alone (and the price), I’ll have a quid on the French raider for the hell of it.
Boomerang Mile 4.45pm Leopardstown
An intriguing race for a Group Two and one to cover in as few words as possible (which is code for I haven’t a clue). Century Dream really impressed when winning the Celebration Mile at Goodwood last time out and looks as good a bet as any if he can repeat that on faster ground, while Safe Voyage is another English challenger entitled to have a say. No odds at the time of writing either but if Vatican City is a big price, he could go well for the places even though Ryan Moore presumably prefers Lancaster House of the O’Brien trio.
Is It 2021 Yet Stakes 5.15pm Leopardstown
Tiger Moth looks hard to oppose dropping down to Group Three company after a career best when runner up to Santiago in the Irish Derby, only beaten a head at the line and five lengths clear of the third. That was only his third ever start and there is every reason to believe he has a lot more to offer as a late maturing son of (you guessed it) Galileo, and he should be very difficult to beat in this company getting weight from his elders. Patrick Sarsfield may be the likeliest to follow him home assuming he gets this trip having never raced beyond ten furlongs before and after a good third to barney Roy but if the selection is fit and firing look no further.
Sunday
Blandford Stakes 2.35pm Curragh
Trainer Dermot Weld has won the last four renewals of this Group Two contest for fillies and mares and Zawara certainly looks an intriguing each way shot at 25/1. Second on her debut at Naas and then a maiden winner at the same track, the daughter of Dubawi is certainly of interest here despite the step up in class for a stable who obviously know exactly the sort needed to win this race. That said I have long been a fan of Gold Wand who I hear is thought of as one of the best fillies ever in the Roger Varian yard, and although she hasn’t made the waves we all hoped for, she won with a bit in hand last time out and seems the one they all have to beat.
Flying Five 3.10pm Curragh
Speed speed and more speed here as they go to post over the minimum trip of five furlongs, though the stiff uphill finish means they need a touch of stamina too. Looking at the line up whoever wins will need to be at their very best and I am rather hoping Glass Slippers may finally be reaching her peak. The give in the ground looks ideal based on her Abbaye win last Autumn, she seems better later in the year, and led the rest home behind the brilliant Baataash last time out at Goodwood albeit at a respectful distance. Freshened up since I am hoping she will win today granted a clear run with Equilateral my idea of the one to follow her home for any intrepid forecast backers out there.
Moyglare Stud Stakes 3.40pm Curragh
Very little form to work with here for the juvenile fillies over the seven furlongs and in a race where the O’Briens dominate with five of the last ten winners for Aidan (including Love last season), and one for Joseph in 2016. It would be a surprise if there is anything of Love’s class in the field for 2020 but the betting suggests this is all about Joseph O’Brien’s Pretty Gorgeous after the daughter of took a Group Two here over course and distance by over two lengths from Shale who re-opposes today. There is precious little reason I can see to expect that to be reversed, and although I expect a big run from Aunty Bridy at a price, the jolly looks difficult to oppose on what we have seen to date.
National Stakes 4.10pm Curragh
Two year-old colts over the seven furlongs this time around in a race won in the past by the likes of Dawn Approach, Gleneagles, Churchill, and most recently Pinatubo, we can almost guarantee the winner will shake up the 2021 2000 Guineas market. Battleground apparently impressed everyone but me when doubling up at Goodwood where I felt he looked a little one paced, but with Ryan on board we all assume he is the Aidan O’Brien number one and deserves respect accordingly. Master Of The Seas will try to make it three wins in a row in this race for Charlie Appleby and land his own hat-trick at the same time and he could well be a bit special but it’s Lucky Vega for me in the hope he is even better over a seventh furlong. He quickened up in the style of a decent sort when beating plenty of previous winners here over six furlongs in August and if he can match or better that effort, he may well prove too good even for this field.
Irish St Leger 4.40pm Curragh
I have never been a massive fan of the Irish St Leger ever since they opened it up to older horses, but it is still a Group One and will still take plenty of winning. Sovereign hasn’t won since the 2019 Irish Derby and should be peaking ahead of this challenge but looks the sort to try to find one too good for him, while Micro Manage intrigues for Willie Mullins after a promising comeback after a long lay-off in mid-August but has a class mountain to climb in this company and looks up against it with a place the best he can hope for. Fujaira Prince could well be the one to beat for Roger Varian but even he could struggle at level weights with Joseph O’Brien’s rapidly improving Twilight Payment who strolled home last time out over course and distance and is fully expected to do the same this afternoon.
Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris 2.50pm Longchamp
As things stand there is every chance we will see Epsom Derby winner Serpentine have his first start since here before a possible tilt at the Arc itself for which he currently trades a 16/1 shot. It will be interesting to see how he gets on in this, but he is no good thing with English King expected to be far better suited by the track than he was at Goodwood, and Great Voltigeur runner-up Highland Chief credible dangers – and that doesn’t even include the local challengers. Port Guillaume may well be the best of them and with the Brits and Irish dominating the only betting I can currently find, he could well be the value call provided he can sit on Serpentine’s coat tails until being unleashed up the home straight.
Prix Vermeille Longchamp
Here come the fillies and mares for their Arc trial and a good field should give us a far better idea about their chances for the season showpiece. Sadly the final runners are yet to be confirmed so we are a little in the dark, but if Raabihah is as good as her trainer thinks she is then the daughter of Sea The Stars will lead them all home. Her one career loss was in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly when a half-length fourth in a bob of heads, but connections are certain the step up to a mile and a half here will see further improvement. Dermot Weld sends Tarnawa over from Ireland, Aidan O’Brien Magic Wand, and Laburnum, Ed Vaughan Dame Malliot, Ger Lyons Even So, and David Menusier Wonderful Tonight (all early declarations), so there is plenty of depth to the race and the winner will be one to include on your Arc shortlist.
Prix Foy Longchamp
Not the best field ever seen for this prep race but a good chance for Stradivarius to stretch his legs and to see how he handles the Arc course and distance under Frankie Dettori. Although the field looks strong enough to give him a proper work out and show up any faults he may have, he really ought to prove too good for main rivals Way To Paris and Anthony Van Dyck, though I suspect that all we will really learn is how effective the champion stayer is or isn’t at a mile and a half.
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Sean’s Suggestions:
Albasheer 1.50pm Doncaster Saturday
Tiger Moth 5.15pm Leopardstown Saturday
Glass Slippers 3.10pm The Curragh Sunday
Twilight Payment 4.40pm The Curragh Sunday
Earthlight 4.45pm Longchamp Sunday
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