ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
No podcast this week I am sorry to say (not my fault this time around), but plenty to talk about for those willing to read on?
This time every year we get the age old question regarding the Arc de Triomphe – should geldings be allowed to run? Those who read my articles on a regular basis will be able to guess my answer in advance (odds-on), as I have long argued that the breeding industry hold far too much sway in decision making and that it is a case of the tail wagging the dog. Historically, European Group races for three-year-olds have seen geldings banned for the sake of the breed (or words to that effect), but horses are bred to race, not raced to breed and I can foul. Financially I can the reasoning – a 2000 Guineas, Derby, or St Leger winner is worth a pretty penny at stud provided he has all the “required equipment”, but is that really allowing open competition? We have recently seen Irish trainers threatening to take racing to court for framing races for trainers with less than 30 winners as that restricts them from competing, so when will owners consider similar actions if they have a top-class gelding who cannot compete in valuable races that suit him best. Remembering the Arc is not restricted to three-year-olds or a classic, and that top class geldings who could have shown up such as Goliath will be sadly absent. The French racing authorities are apparently considering changes in the future but the wheels of racing move slowly, and until then, us punters will be denied the competitive racing we all want to see – and bet on.
Meanwhile, I felt mixed emotions to read that Sir Michael Stoute will be retiring at the end of the season as he has been a large part of my racing life to date, from wide-eyed racegoer on my first trip to Newmarket in the very early 80s, to seasoned journalist running in to Sir Michael all around the world. In all honesty his winner tally has been gradually dropping off in recent years, and at the age of 78 we can only wish hm many happy years of retirement, though if we don’t see him on the racecourse again I will be very surprised.
Finally, and with plenty of racing to look at this week, the BHA have sparked more controversy by banning Irish trained runners from Class Five and Class Six events on the Flat for the rest of 2024, and starting on October the 1st. Naturally, this has divided opinion (as everything in racing does), with some suggesting we have enough small field raxes as it is, but the Irish are reciprocating with a similar rule so it isn’t just us whatever you may have read elsewhere! Now I am happy enough to have a go at the BHA when they deserve it, but in this case, it really isn’t down to them. They have a list of all horses in training with their ratings and know as fact that they need x number of races at y level for the rest of the season – and that is all they can realistically be expected to do. Whether those horses show up or not is in the hands or owners and trainers, not the BHA, and although we are not in October just yet I note a Class 6 handicap at Wolverhampton Thursday afternoon had to be divided – so the horses are there when they choose to show up.
Saturday Racing
Leopardstown 1.40pm
Our first of many top-class races this Saturday sees a one mile Group Two for juveniles that has been won six times in the last 10 years by (you guessed it) Aidan O’Brien, with Derby winer Auguste Rodin successful in 2022, so he clearly sends some good ones here when it fits into their programme. Four runners are set to go to post and Aidan trains two of them, with Delacroix the choice of stable jockey Ryan Moore. Second over course and distance on his July debut, he stepped up on that to win a Curragh maiden and although we don’t really know how good that form is or isn’t (though runner-up and stable companion Acapulco Bay won his maiden next time out), the fact that is trainer sends him here speaks volumes about how highly regarded he obviously is.
Doncaster 1.50pm
The Doncaster card kicks off with the Group Two Champagne Stakes over seven furlongs, won by Iberian for Charlie Hills last season, and by Chaldean for Andrew Balding in 2022, and he went on to take the 2000 Guineas the following year. Whether there is anything that good in this year’s field only time will tell, but I am happy to take on the favourite Chancellor here who is trained by the Gosdens. The winner of two of his three starts, he was impressive here last time out, but that was a Class Three event and he came unstuck in Listed class when only third at Ascot in late July. Although I thought I would be talking a lot about Aidan O’Brien in our Leopardstown races, I am also going for one of his here when the once raced Aftermath is irresistible at 12/1 or thereabouts. Second when as green as grass at Newbury last month, the son of Justify can only improve for the experience, and if the Coolmore Boys are sending him here, then he may be a whole lot better than we have seen so far.
Leopardstown 2.15pm
A one mile Group Two for three-year-olds and above, but surprise surprise, Aidan O’Brien has only won this once in the last 10 years, with British raiders scoring on seven occasions, and David O’Meara responsible for two of those with Custom Cut (2015) and Suedois (2017). This year I suspect the prize will stay at home with Diego Velasquez the likeliest recipient for (you guessed it) Aidan O’Brien. A look at the form figures fails to impress even if he did win a Group Three here last time out by seven lengths, but look deeper and he isn’t as poor as it looks. A length fourth to Metropolitan on the Group One French 2000 Guineas is not to be sniffed at, and he followed that with a four and three quarter length eighth to Arc favourite Look De Vega in the French Derby, before proving stamina is not his forte when weakening into a 30 length 10th in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. Dropped to nine furlongs for his recent morale boosting success, he looks back to near his best and with good ground this afternoon, he can show the watching World he is as good as we once thought he was as a two-year-old.
Leopardstown 2.50pm
Our first Group One of the day is the Matron Stakes for fillies and mares, and once again we are back over the mile. Tahiyra was the first winning favourite since 2015 when Dermot Weld’s filly took this at odds of 5/6, but I am hoping we see another with Porta Fortuna heading the market for an O’Brien – but this time it is Donnacha who trains the daughter of Caravaggio. Second in our 1000 Guineas in May, she has raced twice since, winning the Coronation Stakes by a comfortable length, and then winning the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket by close to four lengths. She is clearly pretty special on what we have seen so far, and if she remains at that level I will not be brave enough to even think about opposing her here. Jancis arrives inbeaten and is an interesting alternative, but this is her first step up against the big guns which may yet find her out.
Doncaster 3.00pm
A less than convincing Group Two at first glance with plenty of these looking to bounce back to form after a below expectations run last time out, including favourite Kinross who was third at Goodwood when last seen in July, and is possibly beginning to show signs of his age. He prefers going with plenty of give in it so the expected rain would be in his favour, but at 5/2 I can look elsewhere. Lead Artist is a lightly raced alternative for the Gosdens, and with only four starts on the board, two of them winning ones, he may have more to offer. He held on well at Goodwood over the mile last time out where he proved he can race on the pace, and with the drop back of a furlong here that may increase his chances if he can get a nice unpestered lead.
Leopardstown 3.25pm
The Irish Champion Stakes is unsurprisingly another Group One (the clue is in the title), and Aidan O’Brien is looking for his sixth winner in a row here after Auguste Rodin was successful last season. He is back for more as is stable companion Luxembourg who won this in 2022 and tries cheekpieces for the first time here, but they may both be up against it if Economics is as good as they think. The William Haggas trained three-year-old gets 6lb from his elders which may make all the difference after the Dante winer powered clear to win the Group Two Prix Guillaume d’Ornanao at Deauville on his first start since, and if he improves as expected, he may be hard to beat. Japanese raider Shin Emperor warrants at least a mention for each way punters after his third in the Japanese Derby, and it will be interesting to see how he gets on against his European rivals.
Doncaster 3.40pm
The St Leger is the last of the five British classics (1000 and 2000 Guineas, Oaks, Derby and St Leger), but with the need for speed these days it has sadly become less fashionable with a victory over the mile and three quarters not necessarily seen as a positive among the breeding experts when owners are looking for a post-racing career. Restricted to three-year-olds, this year’s renewal sees a poor seven runner field go to post, which has to be seen as disappointing for a race worth over £400,000 to the winner. In all honestly ,the race this year leaves me cold from a betting perspective, but if I had a charity bet to place, then it would be on the unbeaten Hans Bruegel with his untapped potential, and with Sean Levey riding a second for Aidan O’Brien on Thursday, he may go one better here.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Diego Velasquez 2.15pm Leopardstown
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