No time for chit-chat this week as my summer holidays finally come to an end, and i am sure you are all fed up with reading me whining n about small fields so i will give you a break!
When I am away I still follow the results and watch all the replays - but I am ignoring the news and the politics (back to “normal” next week) and will simply cover three races - to keep you ticking over.
The weekend is here and we round the week off with some brilliant meetings from Ascot, York, Chester, and Newmarket to name but four, what a time to be alive if you are a racing fan. Handicaps are, by definition, harder races to solve, but if you get it right you can reap your rewards and I am hoping we can all do just that courtesy of Dancing Goddess in the 2.15pm where the trip of seven furlongs made me sit up and take notice. She won her only start over this distance as a two-year-old on the all-weather at Kempton, and returned this season with a length second back at Kempton followed by a three-length fifth at Ascot, travelling well and weakening close home on both occasions. She makes her handicap debut off a mark of 94 here which seems fair enough, and if she can be covered up and produced late on by William Buick, this trip may see her get back to winning ways.
All the talk pre-race has been about Little Big Bear and whether or not he will be at his best after a minor injury saw him miss some work, but as far as I can see if everyone gets a clear run, he would have his work cut out to cope with Shaquille (4.35pm Newmarket) regardless. Despite knowing the result of his last start when coming home a length and a quarter clear of his market rival I am still amazed at his last success when he was slowly away at Royal Ascot before powering clear like Pegasus to come home comfortably on top, and although sprinters can almost seem to take it in turns to win these sprints, Julie Camacho’s son of Charm Spirit appears to be a once in a lifetime for his relatively small stable, and he could well go on to be seen as an all-time great.
The 3.10pm from York is the John Smiths Cup, a mile and a quarter handicap, and an opportunity to TRY to use past statistics in the hope of predicting the likeliest winner for 2023, despite the maximum 22 runner field – so wish me luck. I have 26 years of winners to work with and what have found a list of facts that may or may not serve us well. We haven’t seen a winner bigger than 33/1 at the off (100%), only one winner has been rated lower than 90 (96%), only one has been older than six (96%), and only one came from outside the first 11 in the betting (96%). Using those we can theoretically remove abut half the field, but then we need to see if past performances can give us a final selection. Andrew Balding has won this twice and placed with two others suggesting Nobel and Scampi can go well, Richard Fahey has won it three times (Spirit Dancer), while William Haggas has the best strike rate via three winners from only 18 starters, suggesting Millebosc could go well returning from a long absence. A five-year-old last seen finishing fifth at Lingfield on his only start for the yard after arriving from France, he has been gelded since and may well find significant improvement and if that is the case he could well be a bit of a morning gable on the day.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Shaquille to win 4.35pm Newmarket Saturday
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