Thoughts, musings, congratulations, and a suggestion at 100/1 (each way, funnily enough)

ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN

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Nothing like putting the cat amongst the pigeons to start with, and as I continue to read that owners are the backbone of the sport, it got me thinking – are they the be all and end all as they imply, or are punters really the unsung heroes (and yes, I am obviously bias)?

Of course they pay to buy the horse, to train the horse, to feeds the horse, vets bills, transport costs, entry fees and all, I am not denying their input for a second, but (perhaps unfortunately), racing is inextricably linked to betting and that is not just about the Levy payment to racing (£72.7 million to racing in 2025). If we assume as I do that any payment from a bookmaker effectively comes from the punter’s pockets (let’s face it – bookmaker profits rarely dip, they simply fine tune the starting prices or reduce/remove bonuses etc) then that money is coming from the public. Looking at this Saturday’s racing (assuming no abandonments) we have a total of 35 races in the United Kingdom, and 34 of those are directly sponsored by bookmakers – no punters mean no bookmakers means no sponsorship, so once again, that money is effectively coming from us. The money the bookies put in is admittedly topped up by entry fees, but also by media rights (paid for by the bookmakers per race) which again boils down to, you guessed it, us punters. Some is also paid by the racecourse (who can only afford it because of the racegoers, most of which are having a bet), while many of the top yards (Nicky Henderson Unibet, Dan Skelton Ladbrokes etc) can keep their costs to the owners down (in theory) meaning to me at least that the great betting public are far more important to the health of the sport than many would have you believe.

Talk to the fox but ignore the chickens?

From that it seems logical to me to mention that Baroness Twycross, Gambling Minister, seems able to find the time to talk to the BGC (Betting and Gaming Council), but is yet to reach out to agree (or even offer) a date for a meeting with the Horseracing Bettors Forum despite numerous requests. More evidence if it was needed that the rank and file who simply want a Lucky 15 on a Saturday afternoon without giving up all their personal data come low on the list for politicians and the industry, despite my evidence (above) that we are a VERY important source of funding. I naively thought they were elected to represent the people (how stupid of me) but we aren’t seen as worthy of their time apparently, though don’t worry, I haven’t finished knocking on doors just yet even if I am usually ignored!      

Race of the year?

Anyone who missed the Saudi Cup last Saturday evening needs to watch the replay here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wD848csjW30 as (spoiler alert), Forever Young and Romantic Warrior had a battle royal in the hunt for the £8,000,000 first prize. It always looked likely to be a battle between the two and so it proved with the third ten and a half lengths adrift, but the bravery of the pair deserves further comment. As you know I am not one to criticise a jockey having never ridden a horse in my life, but I do wonder if James McDonald regrets circling the field when (with hindsight), he would have got a run up the inside? Only beaten a neck at the line he gave away a lot more ground than that with his tactics, though we must remember this was his first run on dirt and not one to be ashamed of in the slightest. The winner heads to the Dubai World Cup and the runner-up to the Dubai Turf where it must be pretty short odds they will land the double between them.

Finally, congratulations to Simone Meloni, named Employee of the Year at the Godolphin sponsored Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards, and another winner for Nicky Henderson albeit by proxy. In a sport that likes to air its grievances in public (Guilty M’Lud), it was good to see a smiling face who genuinely loves his job at Seven Barrows. Already immensely popular at the yard by all accounts, he just made more friends with half of his £30,000 (he also won the rider/groom award) to be shared among the rest of the staff (I wonder if Nicky gets a percentage?), but it was the reasonings behind his victory that perked me up. Apparently, during the judging there was no ”me me me” from the Italian who would only talk about the horses and how he treats them all as individuals, while his “infectious personality” was also seen as a massive positive, along with his constant smile. I’ll admit it is so so easy to forget about the lads and lasses who work long unsocial hours looking after the horses we can easily see as nothing more than a betting medium, and to see them recognised at least once a year is the very least they all deserve.  

Fancy a listen? Podcast link here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2025/02/28/podcast-28-02-25/

Saturday racing

Kelso 1.45pm

Not as many runners as I had hoped with a frankly disappointing turnout of four participants, but that won’t stop me having a bet on Dan Skelton’s Grey Dawning here. Not at his very nest recently and pulled up in the King George on Boxing Day, but he made a bad mistake at the first fence that day and could never get into a rhythm from then on. As well as a drop in grade this afternoon, the small field and soft ground look very much in his favour, and if Harry Skelton can get him to settle (or let him bowl along, one or the other), then this looks his for the taking.

Doncaster 2.05pm

At the risk of upsetting some owners and trainers, this is not the strongest Listed race I have ever seen – and that is putting it very politely. Of the few with official ratings, World Of Fortune comes out on top by a wide margin, but she has been well beaten in better company and looks short enough in the betting for my liking despite the return to a more suitable trip. She does look the one to beat and is favourite for a reason, but if all eight stand their ground, we could see an each way opportunity in rank outsider Ballela Sunrise. The daughter of Morozov won a point-to-point at Bitterley in April 2022 in a race that has worked out pretty well (the second and fifth have won under rules since), and it came as no surprise that she looked as if the race would do her good when she came home a 14 length fourth at Uttoxeter on her first start in over two and a half years. Sent off at 50/1 that day which merely enforces my view that the race was badly needed, she can only improve considerably, and with a first-time tongue tie added to help her breathing, she could run into the first three at a huge price.   

Kelso 2.55pm

A maximum of 10 runners go to post for this Grade Two Novices’ Hurdle over two and a quarter miles, but it is a very decent field with eight of them a winner last time out. Vanderpoel is a horse I like a lot after his wins at Huntingdon and Ludlow, and he could yet prove to be the biggest danger to Chart Topper. Willie Mullins isn’t satisfied with dominating Cheltenham year on year and sends the Walk In The Park gelding over from Closutton, looking to take the trophy and the £42,713 first prize back over the Irish Sea. Three runs in bumpers failed to see him get off the mark, but he has been a revelation since being sent over hurdles with a wide margin success at Downpatrick and an easy win last time out at Wetherby. This field looks as if we will see plenty of early pace, which may well play into his hands with his finishing turn of foot hopefully all set to settle the race late on.  

Newbury 3.45pm

As I have a new book out on Amazon here https://tinyurl.com/3m7kw8ya profiling the Cheltenham Festival for 2025, it seems a good time to attack the statistics once more with a 16 runner handicap – what odds we see a late non-runner so the bookmakers don’t have to pay out each way on the first four home? Once again I have looked at the profiles of the past winners, in this case all 20 runnings of the Greatwood Gold Cup over two and a half miles. You can never realistically expect nailed on facts in these handicaps, but I did note that of the 17 winners who had completed on their previous start, 15 had finished in the first five home (88%). 19 of the 20 were aged 10 or younger (95%), and 19 of the 20 were priced at 18/1 or shorter at the off (I don’t have that luxury so I need to work with current prices). 17 winners (85%) came from the first seven in the betting, 19 were rated 130 or above (95%), and 19 were rated 149 or lower. 18 had raced in the last 60 days (90%), and all 20 (100%) had raced at least twice this season, and if we chuck all those into the melting pot, we end up with a shortlist of four - Le Milos, Saint Segal, Vincenzo and Billytherealbigred. Four isn’t a bad shortlist, but we need to come up with a final selection, and of the quartet left, Le Milos is trained by Dan Skelton (the only remaining trainer who has had a winner of this race) and has have won off higher handicap marks in the past suggesting he has a solid each way chance at a reasonable price.

Navan 3.50pm

Only the five runners for this valuable two and a half mile chase but one worth mentioning as El Fabiolocontinues his comeback after a fall at Leopardstown last month.  Entered in both the Champion and the Ryanair Chases at Cheltenham, this will be his first try at two and a half miles as connections look to define his festival target. He is a half-brother to Tommy Silver who won over three miles so there is cause for optimism with regards to his stamina, and if he gets round in one piece (one fall in nine races does not make him a bad chaser), then the Ryanair may suddenly be on the agenda.  

Sean’s Suggestion:

Chart Topper 2.55pm Kelso and El Fabiolo 3.50pm Navan – a Willie Mullins win double.