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Writer's pictureSean Trivass

The White Paper Revisited - Where Will It All End (Plus A Few Suggestions For Saturday's cards)

Although I suspect this could be a recurring subject, we need to take a second look at the white paper for starters here as others are suggesting this could well be the thin end of the wedge- I can only hope they are wrong. I don’t really do politics if I can avoid it but I have never been in favour of big taxes on the multizillion pound companies purely because they will only pass any added costs on to the end user – tax BP a billion, petrol goes up, that sort of thing, and history tells me I am not wrong in that assumption.


Sadly, we may see the same with the white paper - a 1% contribution from bookmakers to the appropriate gambling charities is to be applauded, but only if it comes from the bookies themselves, and is not passed on to the long-suffering punters? Ditto any reform of the levy – I am (personally) happy with a little bit of my money on to the sport I love, and I’m old enough to remember paying betting tax, but not all of it, and I am equally worried about other implications such as restricted accounts- there are enough of those already as far as I am concerned, and even the smallest percentage change in bookmaker algorithms may push plenty of other accounts in to the restricted zone?


I have also been talking lately (did you hear my dulcet tones on the Nick Luck podcast – hopefully not!) about the need for further clarification on what a “frictionless check” really is and whether it has any long-term effects. Friends have already commented that they will stop betting instantly because the last thing they want is annotations on their credit reports when it comes to applying for a mortgage, credit card etc just so they can have a tenner each way on a Saturday afternoon, and although I have been told that can be done without any record, that needs to be made clear and NOW, before punters walk away in their droves.


One other subject that I wanted to discuss was the new incentive to encourage the next generation of racing fans to go through the turnstiles and get a hang of the sport we are all used to. I have zero doubt that there is a necessity to do something, but will they be alienating current customers by their ageist attitude? Allowing a 25-year-old (for example) entry to the 2000 Guineas for £10 while regular supports of the sport, including pensioners have to pay between £16 and £33 could be seen as a bit of an own goal and will cause some disgruntlement from those who have been the backbone of the sport through trying times. What I am 100% in favour of is any behind the scenes tours and raceday previews, as we need to make people understand racing is a sport and not merely a gambling medium, but to me they need to be open to everyone and not just a select few. I have argued for years that racecards or just a race sheet need to be handed out free of charge (how do you even know which horse is which if you don’t hand out the extra money as you walk through the door), and as pensioners have more time on their hands than most, why not offer up something similar for them?


I will keep the other news brief this week (stop cheering) but will add that Ron Robinson who I do the podcast with has worked out the profit and loss scenario if you listened to the podcast (so you get his suggestions as well as mine), and it was close to 80 points (NOT a typo!) to BSP (Betfair Starting Price) in the month of April – and all for free, so why not tune in and have a listen to two old men talking racing here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/05/04/18-26-club-80pts-profit-in-april-and-seven-races-dissected-for-saturday/



Saturday

2.50pm Newmarket


The wonders of a sprint handicaps have never really floated my boat, but we will look at the statistics regardless to see if we can find the winner. In the last 25 runnings we haven’t seen a winner priced bigger than 25/1 that I can find which is a starting point if nothing else. 23 came home in the first nine on their previous outing, 22 were aged four to six, 22 carried between eight stone four and nine stone 10, 22 were officially rated 102 or lower, and of the trainers possibly represented, only Richard Fahey (two from 24 runners and two places) and Kevin Ryan (two from 15 runners and four places) have won this more than once. With the Fahey horses in better form than the Ryan ones (according to the Running To Form figures), I will be taking a small each way punt on Strike Red, a six time winner who has the added assistance of Christophe Soumillon in the saddle to guide him home.


3.05pm Goodwood


Up in trip to a mile and a quarter for this Class Two handicap won by Evens favourite Moktasaab on its only running – so no stats to work with here! Although I can see the appeal of the Charlie Hills trained Maghlaak who is looking for his hat-trick on just his fourth start, I wonder if Honiton may have his measure. His third to Eldar Eldarov at Newcastle stands out here with the winner now rated 116 and although he disappointed on his one start after winning his maiden, he has been gelded since and we may see a bigger stronger horse this season.


3.25pm Newmarket


Another handicap to prune out the ITV7 contenders bright and early here, and with the rare distance of nine furlongs to cover, I immediately head to the distance winners for my first look, which leaves me with a shortlist of five from the 17 runners declared. King of Conquest was last seen winning in Bahrain but I admit I have some concerns about the form of the Charlie Appleby horses and although he could make a fool of me, preference is for Notre Belle Bete. He may have a slim fitness edge having won at Newcastle last month and like many Andrew Badling horses, looks to be improving as he gains in experience - no good thing, but every chance he could run in to a place here.


3.40pm Thirsk


With a 66/1 winner last season and no winning favourite since 2013 all options seem open for this mile handicap. Winners have come from stalls two up to stall 18 so the draw seems fairly irrelevant, and all I have to start with is a top ten finish last time out – 22 of the last 25 winners at least managed that! Four to six-year-olds have taken 23 runnings which seems a sensible place to start, while 22 have carried nine stone three or less to success. Add an official rating of 92 or less (also 22 winners) and a place in the top nine in the betting (23 winners) and we can at least shorten those to work with to a more manageable five remaining. Billyb, The Turpinator, Dark Moon Rising, Skilled Warrior and Pisanella may have this between them, and if that is the case, then Skilled Warrior could be the surprise package after running on from the back to score by a length last time out, and if he strips fitter as expected then an added 4lb from the handicapper may not stop him following up with a guaranteed fast early pace he can attack from.


4.00pm Newmarket


A Group Three sprint over five furlongs is next on our list, and a wide open contest if the early betting it to be believed. Manaccan heads the early betting (but is that the Frankie factor?), but I note that he failed to win on debut in 2021 and was only seventh first time out last year, suggesting he may not give everything at home and could improve for his first start of the season. He is precious little value regardless and I prefer the chances of Twilight Falls. Trained by Henry Candy who is a master with his sprinters, the son of Twilight Son, who he trained to win six races including two Group Ones, has only scored three times but he does compete at the highest level with a second in the Kings’ Stands Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out, and if he is fit to go on his first start of the season, a repeat of that could be enough.


4.40pm Newmarket


To round this Saturday off we face the tricky balance of ability versus value in the 2000 Guineas where the majority are making their seasonal bow – so who has trained on and who hasn’t? James Doyle win this last year on supposed Charlie Appleby second string Coroebus and will be hoping lightning strikes twice with the unbeaten Noble Style, and at 20/1 I am sorely tempted despite William Buick picking Silver Knott, while Chaldean would be the stuff of dreams if Frankie Dettori can ride a classic winner on his final season in the saddle. All three could go well, but Aidan O’Brien has won this four times in the last eight years, and he may hold the aces with Little Big Bear and Auguste Rodin, who are the first two in the betting. The last named is the latest talking horse off the Coolmore production line and is supposedly the next big thing, but they say that every year (marketing for their stallions futures), and we won’t know of its true or hype until after the race. What we do know is he has never won on the predicted Good going with all his successes on a softer surface, and as a son of Deep Impact, we all think he will be an even better horse on a quicker surface which is pretty frightening. 6/4 is poor if I am honest, but he may well be as good as they hope and seems the likeliest winner – though I will have a saver on Noble Style who looks overpriced to me.


Something for the weekend:


Honiton each way 3.05pm Goodwood


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