Sadly, there is only one place to start this week (is there ever good news lately in the sport we all love?), and that is the Danny Brock case which was publicised by the BHA this week – and its complicated. I won’t go into detail because it goes on forever, but the accusation which the BHA deem as proven is that ex-jockey Danny and others were placing lay bets on the exchanges and Danny was conspiring to lose races accordingly. Sadly, he chose not to attend the hearing so we do not really have his side of things, but he did reply to the Racing Post denying everything. I can’t pretend to know one way or the other but you would have to think some of the betting patterns released by the findings do suggest some wrongdoing, but more importantly for us, reminded me why small fields (yes, that old chestnut), remain a massive problem. One of the races in question involved a two horse race where the bets were on Horse A while Danny was on Horse B, and jhow much easier could it get to guarantee being on the winner? Even three and four horse races must now be seen as susceptible to manipulation – if you knew any one of those could not or would not win then dutching all the others would still potentially see an easy profit. That said, and bad news as it is, congratulations to those working at the coal face at the BHA who have uncovered and “prosecuted” those responsible, hopefully deterring others from trying the same trick over the months and years ahead.
Meanwhile, as we risk being accused of regurgitating old news, affordability checks are once again in the news. We all know they are coming, but we don’t know at what level and can only hope common sense is being used – though in racing that is anything but guaranteed. What we do know is that the Gambling Commission are already pressuring (and in some cases fining) bookies who are not following the rules – even though those rules are yet to be agreed. Personally, I am all in favour of the credit reference route where your rating already defines your financial health (and can and thus help problem gamblers accordingly), which seems far more sensible than a blanket £100 a month mentality where a 10p each way Lucky 15 per day would push you dangerously close to your limit each month – how ridiculous is that? Luckily for us all, the Racing Post have picked up the gauntlet on this one and are publicising the lunacy in an attempt to embarrass the politicians in to something sensible (what are the chances), but if not, the black market will simply explode. One thing I have heard is that High Street betting shops are seeing an upturn in custom which I would guess is down to having a bet without bringing your bank statements or a pint of blood, and it will be interesting to see if that pattern continues over the months ahead.
Lastly, every day is a school day, and I may have found out why bookmakers prefer you to bet on just about anything – except horse racing. Media rights deals mean a percentage of every bet (I believe but I am open to correction) goers to the racecourses, which in simple terms that I can understand, means anything else is far more profitable. That doesn’t stop them taking bets, so I take the crocodile tears with a pinch of salt, but it does quite clearly put us as a sport on the back foot, and although I have zero doubt the courses won’t give up their nice little earner, it looks a long-term thorn in the side that really cannot help us in the long term.
On to the racing itself (at last):
Saturday
Haydock 12.20pm
A two and a half mile novice chase to start this weekend, and in a race won by the classy Bristol De Mai in 2016, one that can produce a moment of brilliance or two. Sadly, once again I have to report a shocking field (three runners), with likely outsider Grand Voyage needing to find 20lb from somewhere on official ratings to bother the other two – so on paper, a two-horse race then. Lac De Constance did blot his copybook when unseating Harry Skelton at Kempton when going as well as any, but he may be better judged on a facile victory at the same track, backed up by decent efforts over hurdles with wins at Exeter (twice and Warwick. He could stroll home here but I narrowly prefer Paul Nicholls’ Stage Star today. He was also a very easy winner, in his case at Plumpton, where he made all to come home alone. I accept that form isn’t as good as his rival, but he is rated 8lb his superior over hurdles, and if he makes the running again, he may be able to force the odd jumping error out of the Skelton gelding.
Haydock 1.30pm
I am looking at a very decent field at the early declarations stage for a race won by Jonbon last season, and with five of the seven horse field a winner last time out, it seems fair to suggest this looks pretty competitive. Poetic Music has been given a break after a disappointing third at Newbury but she is better than that and could well get in to the mix, while the handicapper suggests Pembroke is the one to be on with a rating of 136 after wins at Wetherby and Ludlow. Both can go well, as could pretty much all of this field, but I have to select one and Chasing Fire gets my vote. He has done nothing wrong so far, winning a point-to-point at Tattersalls Far, a bumper at Wetherby, and twice over hurdles at Market Rasen – by 16 lengths each time. Obviously, this is a big step up in class but he is yet to be seriously tested, and I am hoping that he can take this in his stride before heading on for even more important contests over the months ahead.
Haydock 2.05pm
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies farmed this race with The New One between 2015 and 2018, and also won it with Ballyandy in 2020, and he has a decent chance this year as well courtesy of I Like To Move It. They think he is in with a shout of the Champion Hurdle (well, a place maybe), in which case he has to go close to winning this, but Epatante looks the likelier winner. The Champion Hurdle winner in 2020 and still a force to reckon with, she hasn’t got off the mark this season yet with a second to Constitution Hill in the Fighting Fifth in November and a second in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton in December to the same rival (and stablemate). She may not be the force of old at the age of nine, but neither of those runs were anything to be ashamed of, and if she can repeat that level of form she ought to win for the 12th time here, and take another step nearer to earning a million pounds in prize money for her connections.
Haydock 2.40pm
A fraction shy of three and a quarter miles over fences for our handicap of the day, and a chance for me to do a little more digging to see what we can find (we had the big handicap winner at 12/1 on our shortlist last week, I just made the wrong final selection). Looking back over the last 25 renewals and the following come to light: No winners aged over 12 (100%), only one winner priced at bigger than 20/1 at the off (96%), only one winner had raced in the last 15 days (96%), only one winner with an official rating lower than 135 (96%), only two winners younger than eight (92%), only two winners with an official rating above 156 (92%), only two winners who hadn’t had a run in the last 90 days, (92%), only two had raced more than four times so far this season (92%), and only two completed on their last start but failed to finish in the first six (90%). Put that lot into the metaphorical mixing bowl and you are left with a shortlist of Bristol De Mai and Fontaine Collonges – and you could dutch the two if you want to make some profit. I am not going to pretend I am exactly enthusiastic about either of them in this field, but is fair to say that Fontaine Collonges has room to improve further after only six starts over fences and at the age of eight as opposed to her 12-year-old rival (who has won 10 of his 34 starts).
Sunday
Thurles 1.10pm
Two decent races in Ireland to focus on this afternoon, starting with this Grade Two Novice Chase for mares that (unsurprisingly) has been won by Willie Mullins three times in the last five years, and four in the last 10. This year he relies upon Allegorie De Vassy, the winner of all three starts for the yard, two over hurdles at Fairyhouse and then on her chasing debut when coming home 19 lengths clear at Limerick. She won’t be a betting proposition here with odds of 3/10 forecast, but she is a horse to watch for now and looks to have a very bright future ahead of her.
Thurles 1.40pm
Allaho has won this for the last two season for Willie Mullins, but he has had to look elsewhere for 2023 and now relies on a three-pronged attack courtesy of Chacun Pour Soi, Royal Rendezvous, and Haut En Couleurs, with the first named the mount of Paul Townend and presumably the first string. All can go well, and team tactics will be interesting as they represent exactly half of the field, but they may still struggle to cope with Joseph O’Brien’s Fakir D’oudairies. Second to Galopin Des Champs at Punchestown in the John Durkan on his first start since April he is expected to improve for that run and has the scalps of the likes of Hitman and Two For Gold on his CV from last season. If he is at his peak then he may well prove too good for these with a clear round, and seems to me to be the one to beat for a stable in ridiculously good form.
Sean’s Suggestions
None this week with the going up in the air.
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