ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
My own suggestion may have been a late non-runner thanks to underfoot conditions ahead of the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last weekend, but how impressive was Edwardstone? Making all from the off he barely touched a twig throughout, coming home 40 lengths clear after Boothill fell two out, and (perhaps crucially), I felt the time was more than acceptable in the conditions, just over eight seconds slower than the norm. When you consider the opening novice hurdle over the same trip was 16 seconds slow, then either the ground dried rapidly in less than three hours, or the performance was even better than it looked, and with the closing bumper (same trip again) 10 seconds slower carrying 1lb less, I rest my case. As for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, he does appear to have a mountain to climb with the likes of El Fabiolo and Jonbon to beat, but last Saturday was the first time he has ever been ridden from the front that I can find (on his 29th start!), and although he won’t be able to dominate at the Festival, soft ground and an easy lead could well see him hit the frame, and I have just had some each way pennies on at 9/1 for the fun of it.
Next up is the dreaded Irish raiding parties – not only do they head here for Cheltenham and Aintree these days, but they can often be plotted up for some minor event at Sedgefield, Musselburgh, Ayr etc, and if you read the racing media, they take home every prize and leave our trainers crying into a barely affordable half of bitter. Of course, just like me the rest of the media love to exaggerate (and I have told them that a million times), so I have had a look to see just how successful they really are.
As a recent example, they took a group of nine runners to Ayr this Tuesday, but only one obliged and that was 5/4 favourite Pitwood Road in the last, meaning a huge loss for anyone blindly backing all those from the Emerald Isle – yet all you will read elsewhere is “another Irish raider takes the spoils”. Trying to find more data has unfortunately proved problematical, so all I can add is that if you had backed every UK runner from astute trainer S R B Crawford who is a regular combatant on these shores for the last 10 years, you would have had 916 bets and 121 winners BUT a loss of over 250 points had you backed them all at bookmaker starting price. Gordon Elliott’s figures are 1407 runners for 389 winners and a loss of 99.56, Willie Mullins 975 runners for 134 winners and a loss of 209.99, and Henry De Bromhead 336 runners for 41 winners and a loss of 6.45 points (all data all UK races 1 January 2014 to 31st December 2023). My point is, Yes they are taking the vast majority of the big races but they aren’t monopolising as some think and as far as I am concerned, competition seems to be a good thing. For the anoraks out there, backing every Willie Mullins runner at the Cheltenham Festival would have given you a loss of nearly 38 points at starting price over the same period, suggesting that as good as we all know his horses are, it is partly down to the number of his runners and not just their quality.
To round things off its that old chestnut about low sun – not a question that has an answer, but one that does upset plenty of punters out there. I didn’t listen to the TV segment discussing jumping but I am told that a horse can gain lengths in the air if they are a decent jumper of an obstacle – and lose lengths if they aren’t. That makes perfectly good sense to me so what happens when hurdles or fences are omitted because of low sun? The honest answer is that there MAY be a different result (hard to prove), and that any punter who chose their selection based on jumping ability may well feel hard done by, but what can or should be done? Some will tell you the race should be voided, but what about all those who backed the winner, or who paid entry to the course to see the races – or the owners jockeys and other connections? I know some think you should be able to “tick a box” when placing a bet to say if fences or hurdles are omitted make mine a non-runner, but the reality is, if there was an appetite for that they would have come up with it years ago, and where do you draw the line – imagine the uproar if your horse strolled home at big odds only to find after the event that two fences had been omitted – and your “winner’ was now a non-runner, not good publicity for the sport at all. Sadly I don’t have the answer, though I do wonder if they could slip a bumper into every card at that time (its not an unknow quantity, sunset), or simply don’t have a race at that time (add in some entertainment, trainer interviews, a competition, whatever to fill the void) – both ideas could work, but the reality is it has been happening for all the time our sport has existed, and no-one has really complained about it until recently.
Podcast here for those who prefer a second opinion from Ron Robinson of Postracing fame https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/02/16/the-bha-get-both-barrels-edwardstone-and-irish-raiders/
Saturday Racing
2.25pm Ascot
At the early declaration stage we had 32 entered and with a maximum field of 18, some will need to head elsewhere. Come the 48 hour stage we have a fractionally more manageable 16 runners for this two and a half mile handicap hurdle. Looking through the last ten years, and we have had nine runnings, with eight of those won by the front six in the market, so I will concentrate there, though naturally I have to use current odds – not starting price. The next fact I did discover was that eight of the last nine renewals were won by a horse rated 127 or above, but lower than 142 which gets rid of two of the remaining six, leaving me with a current shortlist of Rare Edition, Monviel, and Rambo T. Of that trio my suggestion and Rambo T both won last time out, and both have been put up by the handicapper (3lb and 9lb respectively) with Charlie Longsden’s seven-year-old seemingly the better treated. Already the winner of four of his eight starts over hurdles, he ran on well to win readily at Kempton last month, and with the longer trip possibly in his favour and room for more improvement, he will do for me in a tricky race to try to solve.
2.40pm Haydock
It takes a decent sort to win the Rendlesham Hurdle but a word of early warning – we have only seen one winning favourite in the last 10 years, though nothing bigger than Wholestone who took this at the rewarding odds of 16/1 in 2022. Interestingly, we haven’t seen an eight-year-old winner in that time meaning early favourite Botox Has needs to buck the trend to get to the front where it matters, and I narrowly prefer the chances of the year younger Butch, three times a winner over this trip and tough to beat in a finish. He never does things the easy way with his victories this season being by 13 lengths and a neck (twice) but what we do know is he stays, he handles any ground, and he arrives in the form of his life. This is his toughest ask yet and he does need to find a career best against these rivals, but I do love a battler and he certainly fits the bill.
3.00pm Ascot
A three mile handicap chase is next on the list and it’s a tough one to call, and with the stats telling me precious little, I will have to go through the formbook instead. Luckily for me we have some big priced outsiders that I cannot make a case for so I can put a line through those, leading me to Victtorino for starters, who is trained by Venetia Williams who has trained the winner of this twice in the last decade. Seventh at Cheltenham last time out he needs to bounce back from that to have any chance, and I like the look of the bigger priced Threeunderthrufive. Second on both starts this season at Wincanton and Cheltenham, he should be spot on now after two starts following wind surgery, and although he has an added 2lb now thank to the handicapper, ground and trip look ideal for the Paul Nicholls challenger.
3.15pm Haydock
Three and a half miles plus on heavy ground is going to become a war of attrition regardless, and we can but hope that every runner returns to their stables safe and sound. All things seem possible here with an 18/1 winner last year and a 33/1 shot in 2020, and as we haven’t seen a winning favourite in the last 10 renewals, it is very much a case of punter beware. Venetia Williams has won three of those, making both Chambard and Fontaine Collonges big priced alternatives for those who like that sort of thing, but the top six in the market have dominated this over the years and may well do so again. Yeah Man sits on the very edge of that criteria for Gavin Cromwell but I am hoping he is supported before the off, with his trainer seemingly fairly sweet on his chances. The heavy ground is an unknown, and he can get behind in a race and have to play catch up, but he stays forever which will be needed in these testing conditions, and I can see him getting up late on to win going away, getting off the mark over fences in the process.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Majestic Force 3.40pm Punchestown Sunday
Kommentare