Plenty of winners last week but as I am in the process of moving house (have you ever seen so much paperwork, and don’t get me started on legal fees!) I have failed to keep abreast of all the comings and goings in the racing World over the lasty few days, so this week we will settle for zero politics with the plan of providing even more winners instead.
The only aspect I will comment on is the return of limited crowds to the track as of next week (in certain areas) as we crawl our way nervously out of lockdown, with a 50% maximum capacity at tracks deemed to be in Tier One, 10% for Tier Two, and unsurprisingly, no crowds at areas seen as Tier Three – though naturally these will be subject to change on a daily basis. What I don’t know is whether those figures are cost effective for the course concerned when they take the entry fees and subtract staff costs etc but therein lies the predicament – if you are a member at one or more racecourse then who would blame you for expecting to be allowed to attend, but the brutal reality is, you and I bring in very little extra money and the tracks would be far better with the one off “paying at the gate” racegoer. I know that sounds a little negative, but we are in many ways part of the hospitality sector that has already taken a bit of a caning over the past few months, and with nothing announced at the time of writing, it will be intriguing to see how the racecourses playthings.
On to the racing…
Saturday
12.30pm Fairyhouse
Having been asked to over the occasional Irish handicap, this weekend seemed a good place to start – though please don’t expect me to find the winner! Recent runnings have seen the winner priced at between 3/1 and 40/1 (so not a lot of help there), though the last two have been won by Gordon Elliott with a French named runner and he has two in this year that fit the bill in Or Jaune De Somoza and Bel Ami De Sivola, though both need to step up on recent efforts to get involved. The first named fell when weakening over this sort of trip when in the care of Henry De Bromhead in July while the last named was pulled up at Loughbrickland in a point to point – I can’t say they won’t win, but I can say their recent form is less than inspiring. Timoteo looks like he may be the best of the Elliott trio (and although I am not convinced by the name, he is French bred), assuming he improves for a weakening fifth at Down Royal on his first start in close to a year since leaving Alan King. The seven-year-old won a novice handicap at Kempton in 2019 off a mark of 124 (five pounds higher here) and is lightly raced over fences (five starts for two wins), and although five pounds higher, he should give us a good run for our money. Game of War is another to watch but may be fragile, in a race better off watched than speculated in.
1.01 Fairyhouse
Just the six runners and all over bar the shouting if we assume that Concertistaturns up here fit and firing. Trained by the genius that is Willie Mullins, the daughter of Nathaniel out of a Selkirk mare was bred to be pretty decent on the flat but looked a class act over hurdles last time out when hacking up by twelve lengths in the mares’ novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. Prior to that she hadn’t really set the World alight (that was her only win from five starts over obstacles) which is a bit of a negative, but she is, on all known form, quite comfortably the best horse in the race. Minella Melody is her biggest rival according to official ratings and arrives with a clear fitness advantage after her second to Beacon Edge at Galway last month which may well bring them a lot closer together, while we also have a couple of dark horses to consider in Queens Brook (that man Elliott again) who was caught close home over shorter at Down Royal and perhaps Carrigeen Lotus who can only improve for her winning hurdling debut at Galway in a maiden hurdle, and arrives here with some fairly solid bumper form to her name.
12.55pm Newcastle
Just the one winning favourite in the last nine renewals (Ballydine in 2015), and winners at 50/1 in 2018 and 40/1 in 2019 suggest we tread pretty carefully here! With no trainer or jockey clues to assist us in the statistics we need to look at the formbook in isolation and that leads me to Getaround who I can forgive a fourth last time out at Lingfield when tried over further and seeming to run out of stamina. Prior to that he lost a shoe when fourth at Chepstow in a Grade Two novice event after a comfortable Perth success, and back in trip he looks to have a solid chance for the small yard of Ella Pickard, who is a relative newbie to the training ranks. He will need to be at his peak to score again here, and may struggle to hold off Tupelo Mississippi at the weights. My suggestion returned from an eight month lay-off when a length behind Le Cheval Noir (reopposes here) on his hurdling debut at Carlisle and should turn that around on five pounds better terms today, and although he has to step up a gear to beat likely favourite Getaround, he may well prove the value call in a tricky race to even try to summarise.
2.05pm Newcastle
A cracker of a race for late November, and one that seems sure to have major repercussions on the ante post Champion Hurdle market. 2020 champion Epatantemakes her seasonal return here and I admit to wanting her to win and do so easily as I have already backed her to retain her crown well in advance of next March. The winner of five of her six starts over hurdles with the one blip coming in the mares’ novice hurdle at Cheltenham in March 2019, she came home three lengths clear of a good field at Prestbury Park in March this year and is clearly the one they all have to beat. Reported to be on rude health by trainer Nicky Henderson, she will start here at very cramped odds but ought to win with plenty in hand, though the more adventurous among you could consider a forecast to boost the odds, with Sceau Royal the obvious option – but where is the fun in that? Looking for one at a bigger price comes with inherent risks, but Not So Sleepy will do for me – he can and has gone well in the past, represents the very shrewd and talented Hughie Morrison, and is a massive price – no good thing for second by any means, but possibly worth a few pennies for a fun bet.
3.15pm Newcastle
Close to three miles over fences next and a decent enough ten runner field to work with as well suggesting we may even get a decent price – assuming we can find the winner. For reasons completely unknown I have decided to attack this statistically using the last nine renewals as my guide. The first port of call was the weights which, to my surprise, got rid of all bar four of the ten horse field. Nothing has won carrying less than ten thirteen and with the 158 rated Definitly Red that only leaves us with him – plus favourite Pym, the first time blinkered Brave Eagle, and back from a wind op Takingrisks, and if have the winner in that quarter we are quids in even if we back them all. If that isn’t good enough for your style of betting (and I don’t blame you), then I also note the RP ratings have varied from 148 to 161, and that means we can wave bye-bye to Definitly Red and Takingrisks, leaving the Henderson pair and with favourites anything but the flavour of the month in this race, I will be having a small each way bet on Brave Eagle here who has the headgear in place and as he has won off a mark just a solitary pound lower, surely he has a better chance than his odds suggest.
12.40pm Newbury
The owners and trainers here will be hoping they have an RSA challenger on their hands and for that reason alone I have included it in my weekly offerings just in case we get to witness something really special. The Tizzard (three winners) and Nicholls (three) have dominated this over the years, and with just the latter represented here, that seems a good place to start. Once again the stable have two representatives to confuse us all with Southfield Stone in the capable hands of Bryony Frost and Next Destination to be ridden by Harry Cobden. My preference is for the ex Willie Mullins trained eight-year-old who won five of his six starts over hurdles and was a solid third to Samcro and Black Op in the 2018 Ballymore Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He has clearly had his problems and was off the track from April 2018 when winning at the Punchestown Festival until returning over hurdles at Wetherby last month when second to Roksana, hitting a flat spot before running on and never threatening the winner. He does make his chasing debut today which is a concern but there were plenty of options available had they decided to stick to the smaller obstacles, and he did win a point to point at Quakerstown suggesting he can negotiate a fence. Sadly, there are rivals aplenty starting with Anthony Honeyball’s Acey Milan (who won on his chasing bow at Aintree) as well as the likes of Kalooki (won here very easily on his chasing bow but made a few jumping errors), but if this were over hurdles, he would start odds on in this field, and I am happy enough to take the risk that he can jump a fence – fingers crossed.
Sunday
1.05pm Fairyhouse
All of the last six runnings have gone the way of either Willie Mullins (four) or Gordon Elliott (two), and we have seen some outstanding winners of this over the years including Zaidpour, Jezki, and most recently Envoi Allen so expect some fireworks. Both trainers mentioned are represented again in 2020 (three times in the case of Gordon Elliott) which makes tactics difficult to assess without insider knowledge which I don’t have, though it would seem fair to guess that Ballyadam is his number one pick. A son of Fame and Glory out of a Bob Back mare, he cost connections a massive £339,000 at the November Cheltenham Sales in 2019 after one point to point win at Portrush but has repaid some of that with a bumper win at Downpatrick and a very easy maiden win at Downroyal on his hurdling debut. Gauging his ability from that one start is close to impossible but he certainly looked the part despite only being called “…a fair horse” by his trainer that day, and although this is a big step up in class, he may well prove more than up to it before continuing to move up through the ranks with experience. N’golo represents Willie Mullins this season and is looking for his hat-trick after success at Listowel and then Navan, though it is noted he was pulled up at Kilbeggan in August when failing to fire which has to be a concern for his many supporters and I am not convinced just yet he has the scope of the selection. Away from the two “big” yards, we can’t ignore the Noel Meade trained Cask Mate, who has done nothing wrong since returning from a close to three year break, with wins at Limerick and more recently, Punchestown. He did it very easily last time after being held up before being brought with a winning run, but that was over two and a half miles, and I am not so sure he will be able to close in so easily on horses of this calibre dropped back to the minimum trip.
1.35pm Fairyhouse
Two and a half miles over fences wait the four runners here but it is not the race I hoped it would be when working out this week’s contests, with Envoi Allen seemingly scaring off most of the worthwhile opposition. Nine wins from nine races makes the six-year-old impossible to oppose, comprising of a point to point at Ballinaboola, four bumpers including the Cheltenham Festival in 2019, four over hurdles including the Ballymore at this year’s festival, and his only start over fences when pulling six lengths clear, barely touching a twig at Down Royal. Being an awkward so and so who doesn’t always follow the party line, I wasn’t quite as taken with his jumping as the rest of the fawning racing media, but he did get better as the race went on and assuming natural improvement, he will take all the beating today. In conclusion I won’t be backing him at odds on here, but I can see so many faults in the jumping of his rivals that I cannot find one to beat him regardless and once again, a watching brief for future reference seems the sensible way to play this race.
2.35pm Fairyhouse
Another race that he seen the wow factor over the years with Hurricane Fly coming home in front back in 2010 (where do the years go), Jezki in 2013, Apple’s Jade in 2016 2017, and 2018 and the odds on Honeysuckle last season. The Henry De Bromhead trained mare is back for second helpings this season on her return to action as she looks to follow a similar path to last season that saw her take the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham on her last start. Race conditions see her receive seven pounds from her male opponents (so much for equality, eh?), and as she is already the best horse on the ratings by three pounds, they clearly have their work cut out to get anywhere near her barring errors. Ronald Pump fell at the last over this trip at Navan last time but is perhaps better judged on a very good second to Lisnagar Oscar in the Stayers Hurdle but could find the selection has too many gears for him over this trip, leaving Fury Road as the one for the forecast. He does have a few pounds to find but looked to be going the right way when making all at Punchestown, and if they give him too much rope here he won’t be stopping up the straight, and may well take some passing.
1.50pm Carlisle
Plenty of money on offer for the runners here for a Sunday with over £13,000 to the winner and prize money all the way down to sixth. Naturally, life isn’t quite as simple as I would like with the top rated here (Happy Diva) finishing a disappointing fifth at Wetherby before falling two out at Cheltenham. Thankfully, this does look considerably less competitive, and her second to Simply The Betts at Cheltenham last March stands out on form, but I have to carry some slight concerns about her jumping as things stand, though if she puts in a clear round, she will prove very difficult to beat. Chilli Filli caught my eye (you have to love the name), but she may find one or two a bit quick for her dropped back to this trip, while My Old Gold (pulled up behind Chilli Filli last time) could go close if she can brush up on her jumping which was her undoing there. Add in Early Morning rain who is having her second run over fences (and second after a wind op) and we can all see this won’t be the cakewalk I had hoped, but all in all I am happy my suggestion will at least go close.
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to podcast here instead https://postracing.co.uk/2020/11/27/low-sun-crowds-going-racing-hollie-doyle-and-the-weekends-quality-racing-discussed/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Next Destination 12.40pm Newbury Saturday
Kommentarer