I have been a busy boy in my other guise as a member of the HBF (Horseracing Bettors Forum) with meetings galore as we try to make life better for the punters in the street. Just like everyone there are only so many hours in my day (and there seem to be less as I get older), so less chat more horses – here we go!
The first thing to mention (sadly) is reports of a fight of some kind at Sandown last weekend. You don’t need to be Einstein to work out that there is a distinct possibility that drink was involved (shock horror), but I want to know a) how they can afford to get drunk at racecourse prices and b) how they can get served enough times to even breach the drink drive limit – I struggle to get a drink in between races at the quieter venues? All joking aside, I suspect plenty are bringing bottles of spirits in with them and the first step I would take would be more searching of bags as you enter the course. Naturally, racing has come up with an even more spectacular solution (give me strength) – with the announcement of a new initiative at Bath (if memory serves) of a self-service beer machine! Yep, you read that correctly – the opportunity to buy yet more drink, to get past the possibility of the rarely heard phrase of “I think you have had enough Sir”, and more importantly, can anyone tell me how the machine will check if the purchaser is over the age of 18? Every week I find something where racing shoots itself in the foot and just when I think I have seen everything – they find something to top the lot!
Back to the horses and the question I have been asked recently is whether or not Punchestown is a Festival too far? Those who backed Sir Gerhard on Tuesday will be nodding in agreement right now, when he looked a shadow of his Cheltenham self when trailing home an odds-on third. One horse does not a poor Festival make but racing is heading down a slippery slope where the only races anyone really cares about are run in march at Cheltenham, April and Aintree, and April again at Punchestown. We all love the better racing, me included, but there is a danger that the rest of a very long season is of almost zero relevance and thus less competitive, and that cannot be good for the health of the sport. If I had my way I would add in a lot more “win and you’re in” style races to encourage pre-Festival competition, but what do I know -and as you will see in a moment, it isn’t just the National Hunt season that is suffering small fields.
Want to listen to my gorgeous voice (didn’t think so – perhaps Ron’s dulcet tones) then tune in to out podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2022/04/28/2000gns-beer-vending-machines-on-racecourses-and-should-the-nh-season-go-on-and-on/
– it’s free of charge.
Friday
Newmarket 1.50pm
Four runners (see above) and a frankly shocking turnout for Listed contest worth close to £30,000 to the winner and to be raced on Good going (as things stand). Nations Pride represents the in-form Charlie Appleby yard and is all set to go off odds-on after his win at Meydan in February, but I am less convinced than some and am happy to look elsewhere for the winner. Hoo Ya Mal ran on well in to third after a slow start in the Craven Stakes, five-length behind 2000 Guineas favourite Native Trail and takes a drop in class here as well. He looks a huge danger, but a chance is taken on the once-raced Subastar from the Roger Varian yard. A comfortable maiden winner at Newmarket last September, his stable are in great form recently which is a bonus, and he still holds an entry for the Epsom Derby where his is a best priced 40/1. He will need to win this and do it well to justify those aspirations, but he has done nothing wrong so far, and is clearly held in high regard.
Newmarket 2.25pm
One better here with five runners (yippee?), so once again each way punters can pretty much give this contest a miss. Once again Charlie Appleby trains the favourite (Noble Truth), but he trailed home in the Saudi Derby on dirt last time out and he needs to bounce back on the grass to have a say. Gubbass ran well when fourth at Newbury in the Greenham Stakes and is one to consider, but mug as I am, I will give Ribhi another chance. Sent off the joint-favourite on his return at Newmarket in the European Free Handicap, he pulled far too hard early on to have any chance of seeing out the seventh furlong, but with that run under his belt he may well settle a lot better here.
Goodwood 3.15pm
Getting better but only slowly with seven runners this time around over the mile and a half, and Silence Pleaseis apparently the best horse here if we look up the official ratings. Campaigned over further at the end of his time with Jessica Harrington, he has his first start for Andrew Balding here and it will be interesting to see how he handles the drop back in trip which I feel may suit him ideally. He may improve for the run though, and I prefer the chances of the William Haggas trained Bartzella, the winner of two of his three starts here at Goodwood over a mile and a quarter and at Ascot over this trip, and if he improves as a four-year-old as hoped, he could well win this before moving on up the racing ladder.
Newmarket 3.35pm
On a weekend that has a danger if turning in to the Godolphin show, it is close to impossible to oppose Yibirhere – though at the forecast prices we won’t be getting rich, that’s for sure. Beaten a neck last time out in the Group One Sheema Classic at Meydan, he drips in to Group Two company here and ought to find this competition far less exacting. The others all look fairly evenly matched but if you fancied trying a forecast you could do worse than Outbox, though overall this appears to be a race better watched than bet on.
Saturday
Newmarket 1.15pm
Oh dear – I haven’t any odds to refer to at the time of writing but I will be pretty surprised if we can get any odds against about Flotus here but she is, by far, the likeliest winner. Three-year-olds have won the last four runnings of this race so no negatives there for the daughter of Starspangledbanner. A winner on her debut at Goodwood, she improved all season long, culminating in success in Listed class at Ripon (very easily) and a good second to Tenebrism in the Group One Cheveley Park Stakes here at Newmarket. Connections have wisely decided to keep her to sprinting for now which on breeding seems a wise move, and a return to Listed Class for a stable in good form ought to see her start her new season on a winning note.
Goodwood 2.40pm
Once again we won’t get paid for third thanks to a seven-runner field, but it does look an interesting race nonetheless. Primo Baccio heads the official ratings and the early market after her runs in far better races last season, but she is yet to win first time out after any kind of a break and may be worth opposing on her return to action. Looking for a spot of value on a tricky day and it may be worth weighing in with Bashkirova at 7/1 in the hope she can hit the top two to give us some return. The winner of her first three starts at Nottingham, Newcastle and Goodwood, she stepped up in trip to a mile and a quarter at Doncaster before clearly failing to get the trip, but is dropped back to the mile here which should see her in a better light. Make no mistake, she will have to improve again to take a hand here, but she was unraced at two suggesting she is a late maturing sort, and she may well have more to offer with another winter on her back.
Newmarket 3.00pm
Trumpets blaring for our first decent field of the day with 12 all set to go to post for the Group Three Palace House Stakes over five-furlongs. Arecibo has won two of his four starts here and is one to consider as an each way alternative, but Twilight Calls seems to be getting better with age, and was a very easy winner on his return to action over course and distance when he gave weight and a beating to all his rivals. Make no mistake, this is a big step up in grade from a Class Three handicap but he can only improve for his first start in eight months and returning from a gelding operation. He could well prove good enough to start his way up through the ranks like his father (Twilight Son), but I am a little wary at his price that he is yet to do it at this level.
Newmarket 3.40pm
The first of the 2022 Classics is upon us already, but with Native Trail a fraction of odds-on it looks all over bar the shouting. Lest we forget, racing isn’t quite as simple as that, and we haven’t seen a winning favourite here since Churchill in 2017, with 16/1 chance Poetic Flare winning last year to upset the apple cart. The favourite has done absolutely nothing wrong, winning all five starts including the Craven Stakes on his return to action and may prove hard to beat, but he is not the only horse with solid claims today. Luxembourg also arrives unbeaten after signing off with a win in the Futurity Stakes over the Doncaster mile but Aidan O’Brien is making noises that he may find the mile on the sharp side this season, while Perfect Power took the Greenham Stakes at Newbury readily enough to suggest he could have a say. Checkandchallenge is another unbeaten colt and you have to ask if he would be a 25/1 chance if he was in the hands of a more “fashionable” trainer than William Knight, while Berkshire Shadow ran on in to fourth behind Native Trail after a poor start in the Dewhurst Stakes last October, and looks massively overpriced at 66/1 to me, though he will have to get away smartly to challenge this time around. So, in conclusion, the stopwatch suggests Native Trail is the one to be on, and being sensible that will be where my money goes – though I will also be having a sneaky little each way bet on Berkshire Shadow, which will pay out handsomely if he manages to hit the frame.
Sean Suggestions:
Bartzella each way 3.15pm Goodwood Friday
Win Double: Flotus 1.15pm Newmarket and Native Trail 3.40pm Newmarket, both Saturday
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