As always there is plenty to discuss in the big bad world of horse racing, but we have to start with the decision to keep the Cheltenham Festival to four days, much to many people’s relief. Personally I am quite keen on keeping things as they are unless there is a good reason to change them, and as a fifth day would have diluted the cards to six a day and added two new races out of a hat (none of us could work out what they would be), money must have been the only call, though thankfully they have abandoned the plan – for now at least.
Meanwhile, I had field sizes on my list earlier in the week, and although my contentious plan to put maximum sizes on race fields and thus force horses elsewhere (we have had months of small fields and now we are suddenly seeing races divided and oversubscribed), my thoughts have been pre-empted by an announcement today (Wednesday) from racings powers that be. Truth is I have things to do this week so I have only had the chance to give it a cursory glance, but they are returning to the good old days of six race cards in July and August for any meeting not worth £200,000, which effectively removes about 120 races, ditto for National Hunt meetings in July, August and September, with the numbers going back up on the all-weather and over jumps later in the year when the need is there. The whole racing programme also comes under scrutiny with cuts in certain races and increases in others, finally looking at the actual horse population, what is needed – and framing the racing accordingly. Whether it will work or not, only time will tell – but three cheers for everyone involved (no punters were asked for their opinions obviously grrr), for getting off their butts and actually realising things cannot go on as they are.
Meanwhile we had a good news story for a change as Hewick, trained in County Carlow by John Joseph Hanlon, travelled all the way to Far Hills in New Jersey. Bought at the sales for just 850 Euros (about £800), the seven-year-old had won seven of his 28 starts before then and was already a brilliant money-maker for the yard, but he added another £111,111 to the kitty in America with an easy 11 length success – though how it can be called Grand National when it is run over hurdles, only the yanks could tell you. He is now being targeted at the Cheltenham Gold Cup and in a sport where you sometimes need a dream to keep going, all we can do is wish them all the very best of luck.
To finish with, we have to at least mention Champions Day, the good and the bad. I had the first three winners I thought it was my birthday, but it all went downhill rapidly after that. Kinross was a brilliant winner and now heads to Hong Kong (though I suspect the going will be a lot quicker there), Emily Upjohn really impressed me and I can’t wait to see her next season – but both Inspiral and Baeed disappointed, the latter losing his unbeaten record, which is a shame for racing fans – but just goes to show just how brilliant Frankel was (I had to get that in somehow). The last race was a competitive handicap won by 80/1 shot Shelir, but it was the post-race comments of jockey Jason Watson that intrigued me most. He casually mentioned, almost in passing, that the horse had been over-racing and was now wearing a citation bridle (I had to look it up), but it made me wonder whether changes to bits and bridles should be available to us punters in the same way as headgear or gelding operations? Bits are in other jurisdictions (Hong Kong and Australia, for example), and as it appears they can make a big difference, I wonder why they are not divulged to the betting public?
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2022/10/20/the-fag-end-of-the-flat-season-but-its-cheltenham/
for my opinions added to those of Ron Robinson of Worldofsport fame
On to the racing:
Saturday
Newbury 1.50pm
The Horris Hill Stakes has seen winners at odds as big as 33/1 in the last few years and I also note we have not had a winning jolly in the last decade with just two favourites successful in the last 25 runnings. That doesn’t come as a huge surprise when you think of the softer going expected at this time of year (two of the last three were run on heavy ground), but we still have to try and find the winner. Seven of the runners this season won last time out so it does look to have the potential to be a half-decent renewal, though as I speak the rain is falling and the going could get worse than the currently predicted Good to Soft. Looking down the card and it would be difficult not to have been impressed with the Crisford’s Mehmas colt Knight, a winner on his only start despite looking as green as grass and starting slowly at Yarmouth. He can only improve from that and crucially that was on ground with some cut in it, though I will be going small and each way with the likes of Striking Star and Promoter just two of a long list of horses who could also get involved in the finish.
Newbury 2.25pm
I have always been a fan of the St Simon Stakes (no idea why), and that has only driven me to work even harder in my search for the winner this season. In the last 10 years William Haggas, Saeed bin Suroor, and Andrew Balding have all won this twice, and with Hamish doing us a favourite when winning last time out I see no reason to desert him now. He is best in at these weights (by 1lb) on official ratings but has had a very easy season so far with just the three starts with wins at Chester and Ascot sandwiching a good second in the Irish St Leger. That effort stands out here, and if he gets a bit more rain to turn the mile and a half into a bit more of a stamina test, he is clearly the class act in this field for a stable who remain in hot form.
Cheltenham 2.40pm
If the early entries had stood their ground we were in for a cracker of a contest, but the quicker going has seen a few drop out and we are now left with a small but very select field of five. All are four-year-olds (race conditions), so the guesswork revolves around who has or hasn’t strengthened up and improved over the summer. Tiger Roll won this back in 2014 which is an interesting story when you consider this is over two miles and he went on to be a Grand National favourite over fences, and the Irish have a strong hand again with Pied Piper, who dead-heated with Knight Salute at Cheltenham in March before being demoted to second. They meet at level weights again here making it a tough one to call, but I am going to take a bigger risk on Bella Scintilla, a daughter of Martinborough who gets over a stone from the market leaders. Numerous places in her native France saw her bought privately and transferred to the Joseph O’Brien stable, where one start since saw her win her maiden at Killarney when sent off odds-on. Given a rating of 129 for that success, at these weights she only needs to find 2lb with top rated Knight Salute this afternoon, and with improvement likely and the added benefit of a recent run, the double figure price is just too tempting to ignore.
Doncaster 3.00pm
Aesops Fables takes a big drop in class looking to get back to winning ways after coming home fourth on his last two starts at Group One level and if he can repeat those runs he ought to prove far too good for these, though I do have a nagging doubt about any further rain as his winning efforts were on a faster surface. If he has an off day then the Gosdens may strike with Bresson in first-time blinkers, but all in all this is a contest I can comfortably sit out – it makes very little appeal to me from a betting perspective.
Cheltenham 3.15pm
Just the seven runnings of this two-mile handicap to work with and the first note to make is that five of the seven winners have carried more than 11 stone one or more, four have been eight-year-olds with the other three aged six, and all of them have been priced at 15/2 or shorter. If we take those statistics literally (which would be naïve of course), then we lose the three seven-year-olds, and that only leaves us with four to focus on. I was going to go with top-weight Editor Du Gite for Gary Moore but the trainer reports that “he does benefit for a run” which is advertised by the fact that he hasn’t ever won returning from a break, while The Widdow Maker jumper right at Aintree and if he does that here, he may give away too much ground. Poseidon has his first start for Gordon Elliott after leaving the Charles Byrnes yard but he needs to step up in his one win from 10 starts record to have a say, and that seems to point to the chances of Clear The Runway. The winner of five of his seven starts over fences, he returned to action at Worcester with a comfortable 10 length success, and although upped 7lb for that win, he has his ground, and will try to make hay until conditions go against him.
Newbury 3.30pm
Fully Wet looks likely to be a player in this line-up as does the lightly raced Secret Solace who is going the right way, but I will be backing Small Oasis, who is having her first run for Jessica Harrington, and travels over from Ireland. Third on her debut at Naas, she improved considerably to hack up in a Curragh maiden before being beaten a length in to third in the Group Three Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket where she lost a shoe. She is dropping in class this afternoon to this Listed event, and if her new training regime brings about any improvement at all, then she ought to be the one they all have to beat.
Doncaster 3.35pm
This has not ended up the race I had hoped for considering it has Group One status with Charlie Appleby unrepresented, but we do get the chance to see the return to action of Aiden O’Brien’s Derby 2023 hope Auguste Rodin who is currently odds on to take this. He let the side down with a less than inspiring debut after some sparkling homework, but has made up for it in two races since with victories at Naas and Leopardstown. He may well be the best animal here by some margin, but I do note his trainer telling the media he is a better horse on a sounder surface, and with light rain forecast between now and off time that has to be of some concern. Personally, I cannot oppose him but nor can I back him at odds-on with the going likely to get softer by the hour in a race he could win by a street – or flop dismally if he fails to handle the ground.
Cheltenham 4.25pm
Well it isn’t embarrassing at all to have a five runner novice chase worth £13,000 to the winner to see four of them trained in Ireland – and one of those declared to run on Friday afternoon meaning we may well be down to four by the off – or less. Chemical Energy and Life In The Park both arrive with recent winning form over fences and that experience cannot be underestimated, but I will weigh in with decent hurdler Mahler Missionwho has always been thought of as a chaser in the making. The winner of three of his last four starts over hurdles including a Listed Novice hurdle at Perth in April, he is trained by the shrewd John McConnell who is inclined to target his horses at Cheltenham given the right ammunition. We know he stays the three miles, and he gets a useful 5lb or more from the previous winners, and although no good thing, he will do for me in an interesting race despite the ridiculous field.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Knight each way 1.50pm Newbury
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