To my own amazement I have managed to find a couple of POSITIVE things to talk about in the World of racing this week (well, sort of), starting with what I see as a coming together of the old enemies of bookmakers and punters – whatever next? At long last, people who are listened to by the great British public (not me as we all know) are breaking cover and singing from the same hymn sheet – racing WILL, without any doubt, suffer dramatically should the draconian affordability checks proposed by the white paper and amended (?) by the Gambling Commission come to fruition. Andrew Black, co-founder of Betfair has had his say, well-known professional gambler and racehorse owner Alan Potts has said he will simply stop betting, while Phil Cunningham, perhaps best known for owning 2000 Guineas winner Cockney Rebel, has told the media how he is being courted by offshore bookmakers for his business. Add in Oli Bell of ITV racing fame and his comments about the danger of black market operators and it looks like the gloves are finally off – those who were happy to keep the status quo over the years are not only speaking out but shouting out about the potential injustices this will bring on the unsuspecting punters and the knock-on effect on the finances for the sport as a whole - and many would say about time too, let’s all just hope the horse hasn’t already bolted shall we (and as I write other owners are coming out to say exactly the same thing).
Next on my positives was the performance of the Ladies team at the Shergar Cup at Ascot last Saturday, which really caught my eye. Hayley Turner, Hollie Doyle, and Saffie Osborne put their better known rivals to the sword with a winning score of 78 points, five clear of The Rest Of The World comprising Kazuo Yokoyama, Matthew Chadwick, and Joao Moreira, and that got me thinking (I know - that’s never a good thing). Are the Lady jockeys actually better than the men I wonder? That thought is based on an overall lack of decent rides for top stables from the ladies concerned (that is a sweeping statement but bear with me) – as I write the top 5 trainers by prize money are the Gosdens, Aidan O’Brien, Andrew Balding, Roger Varian, and William Haggas. Since the beginning of August Hollie has ridden 62 rides (as at 14th August) with 10 winners – but just the six rides combined for the top five yards. Hayley Turner rides a lot less and has had 22 rides in the same period (five for the top teams), and Saffie Osborne 42 rides, eight winners, but just the one for the yards mentioned. It has to be said that all the yards listed above quite rightly have their favoured jockeys (Frankie springs to mind for the Gosdens) and that is 100% their choice to make – but the Shergar Cup sees horses picked by ballot (so no trainer or owner input), and they proved at the weekend that if you put them on the right horses they are as capable as anyone. Interesting if nothing else, and although I have probably just been crossed off a few Christmas Card lists, I was not trying to point the finger at anyone – merely noting that when they get the opportunities, they are as good as anyone in the saddle.
Lastly, and I eagerly tuned in to watch Arc favourite Ace Impact strut his stuff at Deauville on Tuesday afternoon. The Cracksman colt had already won the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) at Chantilly after showing a devastating turn of foot when needed, and he won like an odds-on shot should albeit by less than a length this week. He is unbeaten and he probably does deserve his place at or near the head of the market, but it also makes you wonder where all the opposition is? One glance at the betting suggests we are rapidly running out of middle-distance specialists (and in case we forget, the French Derby is over a mile and a quarter and the Arc is a mile and a half and usually on ground with plenty of give in it), so who do you think is in with a shout? Hukum is his nearest rival in the market and at least we know he stays the trip and handles cut in the ground, while Paddington (12/1) would surely have been campaigned for Epsom if they ever thought he would stay a mike and a half? Westover is winking at me at the same odds and if I had a bet to place now he may be my each way call, while the fairer sex do pretty well here, and Savethelastdance would probably get her ground and may well end up as the Aiden O’Brien call number one.
Had enough of reading – head here to listen to all of the above and more as I chat with Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame here… https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/08/18/lady-riders-the-arc-winner-the-gambling-commision-and-seven-winners-tomorrow/
On to the racing with (hopefully) more winners to follow the last few weeks profits…
Saturday Racing
1.50pm Newbury
A Group Three to start our afternoon and one that has seen some classy winners in the past, headed by Hukum who took this twice in 2020 and 2021. He has gone on to better things, but this year may see Arrestcome out on top. I was mightily impressed with his seasonal debut when he won very easily in the Chester Vase, but I have to admit he hasn’t matched that in two runs since with a 10th in the Epsom Derby when he was sent off favourite, and a fifth to King of Steel in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. If he was mine I would be dropping him back to a mile and a quarter not stepping him up in trip, but I suspect the Gosdens know more than I do, and if he does get home he may have too much class for these.
2.05pm Newmarket
All of the runners here are greyer if not balder than I am, and I have to be honest and say I can see the appeal of the occasional novelty event restricted to horses of a certain colour. It is still a handicap and still a tricky one to solve, and although I accept the form of Charlie Hills’ Divine Libra stands out after his two-length third in a Class Two handicap at Newmarket, I note the stable are hardly firing in the winners lately and I prefer to look for better value elsewhere. Music Society was last seen at Glorious Goodwood when coming home a three and a quarter length fifth despite failing to get a clear run in a Class Two, and he also drops significantly in grade which others appear to have missed. His last run in this grade was in October 2022 when he won a shade cleverly, and coincidentally that was off exactly the same handicap mark as he is burdened with today.
2.40pm Ripon
Off North to Ripon for our next contest and with the early betting showing us a 7/1 favourite you do not need me to tell you this is highly competitive before the stalls open ahead of this six-furlong handicap. I can see why Fortamour heads the market after his nose defeat over course and distance last time out, but that was in a four-horse field in a slow time and everything will be very different for him here with up to eighteen opponents. I accept a high draw is seen as advantageous over the six furlongs here but horses can and do win from lower stalls, and I will be siding with Thornaby Pearl from the eight stall. Trained by Adrian Nicholls who is a sprinter specialist just like his father, the five-year-old won two races ago over C&D by an easy four lengths, and I believe it was the heavy ground that did for him last time out and not the added 6lb from the handicapper. Better ground this afternoon (a bit more rain would not go amiss) could see him bounce back, and at a double figure price he looks each way material.
3.00pm Newbury
Trainers Clive Cox and William Haggas have won this twice each from the last six runnings, and they both have runners here which makes life interesting. Alpha Capture could go well in a first-time visor for the Haggas team but I prefer the each way chances of Scholarship, one of the Clive Cox pair and possibly the stable first-string with Richard Kingscote in the saddle. He also tries headgear with blinkers added after he pulled too hard too early before coming home sixth at Sandown last month, a run that has seen the handicapper relent and drop him 3lb this afternoon. Interestingly, his last win was in this grade over this course and distance in April, and off a mark just 1lb lower, so the ducks are beginning to line up for the son of Profitable who looks massively overpriced to me.
3.15pm Ripon
There is no doubt this is the handicap of the day, though that makes it no easier to solve I am sorry to add. Looking at the stats for this one and although everyone will tell you a high draw is imperative, horses have won this from stalls 1-5 six times in the last 26 runnings, so whatever your pick, not all is lost! We are yet to see a winner aged older than seven (in the last 26 runnings), with four and five-year-olds dominating (17 winners), with my next stop the official ratings. We are yet to see a winner rated higher than 101, and only two have been rated less than 83, while all bar one ran in the last 60 days, and if we throw those into the mix, we have a (not so) shortlist of 9 remaining. Looking at those (all of them) and I note that Bay Breeze has won off 2lb lower in the handicap before as have King Of Bavaria and It Just Takes Time, but at least trainer Tim Easterby has won this three times and placed with four others, suggesting he knows exactly the sort required, and as four of his six wins have been over this course and distance, surely has a big each way shout.
3.35pm Newbury
We round off the racing this afternoon with the Group Two Hungerford Stakes over seven furlongs, and an interesting contest assuming the rains stays away and they all turn up to do battle. Sadly, not one of these won last time out which makes pretty depressing reading, and although four-year-olds have the best strike rate at 18%, their sole representative this year is Witch Hunter, a rank outsider trained by Richard Hannon. He could well outrun his price, but I am happy to take a chance on the Gosdens trained Mostabshir. The son of Dark Angel sports blinkers for the first time this afternoon and one look back at his form makes him very interesting. A winner over a mile at Kempton on his debut as a two-year-old, he has raced over that trip on all four starts since, winning at York in May before coming home sixth to Paddington in the Group One St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and then fourth in Listed class at Newmarket. More importantly than the formbook I noticed that he weakened at the furlong pole on both those starts, but dropping back to seven here in headgear may see a much better performance, and hopefully a winning one.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Music Society 2.05pm Newmarket each way
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