I literally do not have time for the usual waffle this week with so much racing. If you hadn’t worked it out yet, I try to cover all the races Listed class and above on a weekend when I can, and with TEN of those in total this week, its straight down to the action!
On to the racing….and plenty of it this weekend…
Racing:
Friday
6.00pm Tipperary
I have 19 runnings of this race to look at and having gone through all the statistics I learned precisely nothing – what a waste of time that was. The O’Brien family seem keen to win the prize money here with Joseph responsible for four of them, and Aidan another three. Jockey bookings suggest Agartha is Joseph’s number one here, and if we ignore his last run when he didn’t get the mile and a quarter at Belmont (New York), his form makes good reading. A length second in the 1000 Guineas trial in early April, she followed that with a three-quarter length second to History in the Cornelscourt Stakes, before a six and a half length fifth in the Irish 1000 Guineas. In all honesty, she hasn’t reached the levels connections clearly once hoped, but this is perhaps her best chance of a win in 2022 and one I hope she can take with both hands (if she had hands).
6.35pm Tipperary
A wide-open race historically with winners at all prices and all ages making statistics another waste of time – so I won’t bother. Ano Syra is officially best in at the weights with her three-year-old filly allowance tipping the balance, and understandably so after her second to easy winner Go Bears Go in the Phoenix Sprint Stakes at The Curragh earlier in the month. I don’t see that as any kind of a disgrace with the winner held in very high regard, and if she can repeat that dropped to Listed class, she may prove difficult to beat. I would love to see Adrian Nicholls win with Tees Spirit (a decent bloke who deserves every bit of luck that comes his way), but this is very different to a class three handicap, but he may try to make all and won’t be stopping at the end of this six furlongs – perhaps a reverse forecast as a back up play could reap dividends.
Saturday
Goodwood 1.50pm
Two-year-old races are always tough to call but in the last 10 years we haven’t had a winner priced at bigger than 7/1, and with three winning favourites and a joint favourite it makes sense to focus our attentions near the head of the market. Bright Diamond is currently vying for favouritism and is very much the unknown quantity here. Karl Burke’s horses rarely run unbacked if they have been showing up well in their work yet the daughter of El Kabeir was sent off a 10/1 chance at Newmarket before strolling home by nine lengths despite a slow start. The implication is she will improve considerably for the experience and if that is the case, she could be way above average.
Beverley 2.40pm
The World and his wife are fully aware that a low draw is a big advantage over the five furlongs here at Beverley and I note that in the 18 runnings so far, not a single winner has been drawn higher than the nine stall. All the winners so far have been rated over 96, and if you add that to the draw bias you are immediately down to a shortlist of seven – if only life was that easy eh? Only one four-year-old has won this which I found quite surprising (43 have tried) leaving me with my selection from Ainsdale (best with more cut in the ground), Barbanera (yet to place this season), Korker, Tis Marvellous (won this last year) , Arecibo, and King Of Stars. I will be messing about with tricasts with the six of them to pennies, but when the chips are down, its Tis Marvellous each way for me. I wish he had been drawn lower than the seven stall but if we look at his runs this season (only two of them), he has been highly tried with a four-length sixth in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket and a nine-length tenth in the Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. Two runs will have put him spot on now and back in to Listed company at a track he loves he looks the likeliest winner of a tricky puzzle to solve.
Goodwood 3.00pm
A race named after the late John Dunlop deserved a bigger turnout in my opinion (when I started my journalism career he was nothing but helpful), but all we have are four runners despite the £56,710 on offer to the winner – and owners wonder why they don’t get too much sympathy. Perfect Alibi won a handicap at Haydock last time out and would be a popular winner for The Queen who also bred her, but if the form book holds up then there is only one who can take this and his name is Hoo Ya Mal. Second in the Epsom Derby and third to New London in the Gordon Stakes here last month, he step up to a mile and three-quarters here which is expected to suit with the St Leger followed by the Melbourne Cup next on his agenda. On official ratings he is 15lb better than the Haggas runner and it will be a big shock if he fails to take this though he will no doubt go off heavily odds-on.
Newmarket 3.15pm
It came as a surprise to me to see that three-year-olds do not have the best of records here with just the four winners from 61 attempts over the last 25 runnings. Summerghand showed there is life in the old dog yet with a win at York last time out and he cannot be dismissed if the race falls his way after winning this last year at odds of 16/1, but I am going to take a chance on Daneh here who has been off for almost exactly a year. Her three starts so far have all been over seven furlongs with a neck second in the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood her latest effort, but she has shown plenty of speed each time and I wonder if the drop back to six furlongs may see her in a better light. Her fitness does have to be taken on trust and has to be a concern, and I will be dropping my own stakes accordingly.
Goodwood 3.35pm
A small but select field for this Group Two over the mile and one where you would have to think that Jadoomimay be the only runner with room for improvement. A lightly raced four-year-old, he won two starts as a juvenile but only had the one run last season when third at Newmarlet after close to a year off. Not seen again that year, he was gelded in May and reappeared in a Listed race at Clairefontaine where he won by less than a length despite looking as if the run was needed. Recent rain down south can only aid his cause (I doubt he will run if it is too firm), and although I accept he has to take another step forward to win here, there I every chance he will improve for the run and get the better of some well-exposed rivals.
Curragh 3.40pm
No surprise here to read that Aidan O’Brien has won five of the last 10 runnings of this Group Three contest, but he has failed to take home the trophy since and 2019 and barring some massive improvement from Gowran Park 11th Lullaby, he won’t be winning it this year either. Seisai is by far the likelier winner after her half-length second to Lily Pond over this course and distance last month in the Group Two Kilboy Estate Stakes, and she looks to have been found a suitable opportunity to get off the mark for this season
Windsor 6.05pm
Newmarket trainers David Simcock (two) and Roger Varian (three) have dominated the last 10 renewals but only the first named has a runner this year in stable stalwart Desert Encounter, who will having his 51st race this evening and looking for his 13th success at the sage of 10. He is the only C&D winner in this field and has won on soft ground before, though he does need to step up on his form so far in 2022. Three-year-olds have won two of the last three runnings of this race and although Cresta is the best of them on official ratings, I am hopeful that Maksud may have more to offer. A lightly raced son of Golden Horn, he won on his debut here over a mile and a quarter and has placed in all three starts since with a second to Secret State in decent Goodwood handicap last time out. This is a step up in class but I suspect there is improvement to come and if that is the case, he could well get involved in the finish and surprise them all.
Windsor 6.35pm
A tough race to call over the mile and a quarter and I note at the early stage a number of horse declared for this contest – and the 6.05pm this evening as well. It does seem a bit naïve to put on two races in quick succession that cannibalise each other and that may explain why we only have the seven runners here. Grocer Jack let his supporters down (including me) when second at Haydock earlier this month where he pulled too hard too early and failed to respond as hoped in the finish. He is better than that if he settles and has some solid form on softer ground in Germany for his previous trainer suggesting the going won’t be too much of an issue, though I do note all his winning form is in a faster surface and won’t be opening the wallet too widely on Saturday evening.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Seisai 3,40pm The Curragh
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