Horse focus this week to start with, and what did we all think of the Guineas last weekend? Much as Auguste Rodin appeared to be the hyped up talking horse that I was worried about (and I did my money), we did see a well-backed and highly popular winner in Chaldean, ridden by Frankie Dettori and bred by my friends at the Whitsbury Manor Stud. He out the race to bed in pretty devastating style, but the time of the race (1m 41.64s) was a lot slower than the fillies in the 1000 Guineas on Sunday. Both conests were run on soft ground yet Mawj clocked in at 1m 37.92s – so are the fillies this year better than the colts? Only time will tell on that one, but congratulations to Saeed bin Suroor for training the winner and remaining so polite and gracious afterwards when asked about why Charlie Appleby seems to have the best Godolphin horses.
Next up I prove how British I am – by talking about the weather! What exactly is going on when we have newton Abbot abandoned for waterlogging in May – and the Lingfield card switched to the all-weather for the same reason on Saturday afternoon? Has it really been that wet this month, or could both tracks have done more to sort out their drainage I wonder – it does all seem very unusual but not beyond the wit of man to find a solution – preferably in advance?
Lastly for the waffle we have had our first recognised Derby and Oaks trials already with Chester seeing Savethelastdance win the Cheshire Oaks by 22 lengths, and Arrest win the Chester Vase but close to seven lengths. Bother were impressive with their rivals strung out behind them, but the ground is the issue for me and who knows if they can repeat that on what will hopefully be a better and quicker surface at Epsom? We await the other trials with interest after Attest’s Chester Vase win and San Antonio’s Dee Stakes win failed to send my pulse racing and in my view (right or wrong), we may have seen an Oaks winner already – but not one for the Derby just yet.
Saturday racing
1.30pm Ascot
A lack of time leaves me working with just a decade of statistics for these races, but eight of the last 10 winners carried more than nine stone, and all of them started at a single figure price. Four-year-olds won seven and five-year-olds the other three so we know the age group we need to focus on, and all of that leads me to the chances of High Fibre, who is having his first start for Harry Fry, better known for his exploits in the National Hunt sphere. Only beaten a nose by Educator on his final start for Ralph Beckett, he has been gelded since and step up in trip to the mile and a half for the first time this afternoon. On breeding it has to be deemed questionable that he will stay this far, but his connections should know far better than me and if he does get home, he has a squeak in a very competitve event.
2.05pm Ascot
The statistics don’t really tell us very much I am sorry to say with two exceptions – four-year-olds have won nine of the ten runnings as have horses drawn in single figures. That info leads me with a shortlist of four to consider, and I have come down on the side of Timeless Melody, who represent the yard who won this in 2018 with Urban Fox. The son of Teofilo got off the mark on his first start for the yard after leaving Charlie Appleby when: taking a little novice event at Leicester last month and crucially, that was on heavy ground where he ran on strongly to win going away over a furlong shorter, and with soft or worse expected here, the conditions and step up to a mile may yet see him come out on top.
2.40pm Ascot
When the early betting sees the favourite trading at 8/1 you know you are talking about a very competitive handicap, and with winners at odds of up to 25/1 in the last 10 runnings, all things seem possible. Four-year-olds have taken 13 of the 23 runnings which is an impressive figure, with five and six year olds only managing nine between them, while we are yet to see a winner rated higher than 104, and with only nine outside of the first 15 in the market, we can at least get rid of a few. Although those statistics hardly inspire massive confidence they do lead to Kingdom Come, one of only two four-year-olds I can see who are currently in the top 15 in the betting (Admiral D is the other one), and as he has won his last three starts he looks a solid each way pick if nothing else, though it is noted that all three victories were on the all-weather at Kempton, and there is no guarantee he will be the same beast on the turf. There is hope he will handle the cut in the ground with his sire (Kingman) winning the Irish 2000 Guineas on soft to heavy and the Prix Du Haras on soft at Deauville and in a tricky race, he seems to have as good a chance as any.
3.15pm Haydock
Byker was only beaten a neck in the Fred Winter when last seen in action at the Cheltenham Festival and if he can repeat that form, even the 6/1 odds here may ultimately prove to be pretty generous. Only a four-year-old, there is a concern that his age group rarely win this with the last one in 2014, but on the other hand he may have the most improvement to come, and you can be pretty confident his connections will have him fully primed for another trip over the Irish Sea to plunder some of our prize money.
Something for the weekend:
Byker each way 3.15pm Haydock
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