Not a lot of news that caught my eye this week with the obvious exception of the lovers’ tiff between the BHA as the rest of the racing world, as they tussle between themselves for control of a few more crumbs of the ever-decreasing pie.
Now the truth is, a lot like many subjects since the invention of social media, what or who you read may well decide which corner you are in, meaning that unless you are involved in the discussion, you don’t really know the facts – and most if not all of us are all outside the tent looking in. I have been in this game for 35 years or so now, and some things never change - the racecourses blame the BHA who blame the owners who blame the trainers who blame the racecourses – and so it goes on ad infinitum. Ask each section the question and you will get the same sort of answer “not our fault”, and perhaps (heaven forbid), they are all equally to blame? I am so woefully short of facts (everyone seems to have a different set of figures) that it feels wrong to even have an opinion - but all I will say is the that BHA seem to have less of a vested financial interest, and much as it may be harking back to very different times that perhaps belong in the past, I wonder if a dictatorship by the BHA may be the best way forward as at least it allows decisions to be made without the obligatory “blame culture” we are witnessing now.
My next subject is one I have to tread carefully on, but do we really need the Starting Price – and the answer is abso bloody lutely! I don’t remember the last bet I or anyone I know placed at Starting Price, but I do know that is the backbone of an honest betting industry. If we don’t have an independent authority making sure the starting price is fair and accurate then the point of Best Odds Guaranteed flies straight out of the window with nothing to compare it too, and that is a backup I feel is very much in the punter’s interest. Yes the SP is changing (why should a couple of hundred quid’s worth of bets on a midweek afternoon card determine the payouts for millions of off-course punters these days), and IMO we need to add exchanges in as well to get an accurate “average”, but we also need to make sure there is no price fixing among the bookmaking buddies, and that punters get a fair crack of the whip (pun intended).
Bored of reading – feel free to listen here instead
And on to the racing….
Saturday:
12.55pm Newcastle
Just looking at our first race of the day suggests to me we will be struggling for any value all weekend with a field of six the best they can muster for this Class Two Novice Hurdle. If I am proved wrong it won’t be the first or the last time, but I am willing to oppose the favourite as Paul Nicholls looks to win it with his first ever runner in the shape of Mr Glass who won two bumpers before success on his hurdling debut. I wasn’t impressed that day and as Rose Dobbin won this in 2017, I am hoping she can double up four years later with Captain Quint. Second in his only point to point he won over hurdles at the first time of asking with relative ease over two miles, and as he seems on paper to be the better suited to this far longer trip, I feel he may be the value call in this contest.
2.05pm Newcastle
I rarely mess with handicaps at this time of year over fences, but in this case I will make an exception. Running through my little list of stats (which unsurprisingly fails to come with any kind of guarantee), and in the last 22 renewals, 18 have been won by horses aged seven to 10 – so we will start there. Add in only two winners who completed last time but came home outside of the front four, and we start to lose a few if not enough of the starting line-up. Only two winners have carried less than ten stone four and I have now halved the field, but we still need to do more. Looking at trainer and jockey records in this p[articular contest and I note from those left on my list that Sandy Thomson has won this once from two runners (last year with 66/1 chance Yorkhill), while Ryan Mania has ridden in this three times, winning once and placing once. All that waffle suggests we may get a big run from Dingo Dollar, who would be a very appropriate winner for obvious reasons.
3.15pm Newcastle
The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is seen as the race of the day for many but good as it is, I don’t think it is quite as straightforward as the betting suggests. I do agree that a back to her best Epatante wins this for the second year in a row for trainer Nicky Henderson, and she does arrive here with the best form, but she is plenty short enough when you look at the opposition. Monmiral would possibly like softer ground but is unbeaten in five races over hurdles and is yet to be seriously tested, while Sceau Royal and Silver Streak both have a fitness edge having already been seen this season, suggesting it may not be quite so clear cut.
12.10pm Newbury
Someone must know something that isn’t in the form book looking at the early betting with Elle Est Belle and Nina The Terrier trading as joint favourites. Looking at their last run where they met here earlier in the month, and the last named came out a comfortable winner by four lengths with the Skelton mare in third, and the winner if 5lb better off here. All I can think of is the fitness advantage the Alan King mare had that day after winning at Chepstow in October, but it will still take a herculean effort to turn that form around.
12.40pm Newbury
Just the four runners here in a contest won by horses of the class of Grands Crus, Thistlecrack, and Native River over the years. Ahoy Senior was running a huge race before unseating at Carlisle in the race won by Fiddlerontheroof last month and he could gallop them in to the ground here, but he won’t have it all his own way here. Irish raider Mr Incredible is likely to improve for the step up in trip, while the Paul Nicholls trained Flash Collonges, who was useful over hurdles, makes his debut over the larger obstacles here.
2.25pm Newbury
Another small field and another with the chance it could get tactical, though Onemorefortheroad likes to front run and should ensure there is a decent pace from the off. If I have read this correctly then that will set things up nicely for Jonjo O’Neill’s Soaring Glory, who won easily on his seasonal return in a similar race at Ascot despite idling once he hit the front. Jonjo Junior takes over in the saddle today and will know the horse inside out, and if he is produced close home, I expect him to be good enough to quicken away from this field at the business end.
Sunday:
1.05pm Fairyhouse
So the Irish can put on half-decent filed on Good ground but we can’t get an each way bet on a softer surface something is rotten in the state of Denmark (was that a Shakespeare quote – who knows) – shameful. My Mate Mozzie has done very little wrong and is clearly a decent sort but 6/4 looks plenty short enough to me and I will risk a little each way on the Willie Mullins trained Statuaire instead. A bit of an unknown quantity, she arrived from France after pulling up on her last two starts but has done nothing wrong since with wins at Downpatrick and Wexford. Admittedly her last success was a fairly narrow one, but she idled in front once she felt she had done enough, and if she is ridden to be produced late again here, she should give us a big run for our money.
1.35pm Fairyhouse
Lifetime Ambition was easier to back than Beacon Edge when the two met at Down Royal for their respective debuts over fences, and as they meet on the same terms here, I would suggest that form will be franked, with more improvement expected from the selection. Admittedly, the Harrington yard could be in far better form which is my main concern, but the son of Kapgarde may lead them all a merry dance form the off again here, in a race where I would suggest the form may well be worth following over the months ahead.
2.40pm Fairyhouse
Odds on to end our Irish racing this Sunday afternoon when the brilliant Honeysuckle returns to the track for her first start since winning the Irish Champion Hurdle to add to the English equivalent last April. No horse is bulletproof and the lack of a recent run may be an issue to some, but she has won all twelve of her career starts and is clearly easy enough to get ready at home. She is rated 10lb better than market rival Saldier when you take in to account her mare’s allowance and although it isn’t big or clever of me to tip an odds on shot, though if you are looking for an each way alternative, you could do a lot worse than Sire De Berlais, hampered when runner-up last time out and massively overpriced at 16/1.
1.45pm Carlisle
It really is getting past the embarrassing stage with the poor turnouts for these races and with the going officially Good to Soft I fail to appreciate the problem, and with so many jumps horses flat bred these days surely they could muster more than four runners for a Listed race? If Elimay turns up even 90% fit (and I don’t think Willie Mullins would send her over from Ireland if she wasn’t ready to run), then it looks all over bar the shouting. She is officially rated 7lb higher than Annie Mc who looks her only realistic rival, on paper at least, and having won four of her 6 starts over fences and placed in the other two, why would we look elsewhere. Equally adept over fences or hurdles, she has won better races than this at Thurles and Cork and with a clear round, we should see an easy victory.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Lifetime Ambition 1.35pm Fairyhouse Sunday
Win treble Epatante 3.15pm Newcastle Saturday, Honeysuckle 2.40pm Fairyhouse Sunday, Elimay 1.45pm Carlisle
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