2.30pm
I can certainly understand why Elite Status heads the betting after he followed up an easy debut success with an equally convincing display in Listed class at Sandown, and what he has done is proved that his debut win was no fluke – unlike most of these who have only had the one start so far. Sadly, 13/8 does look that little bit too skinny to me, and I can almost defy anyone to watcha video of American Rascal winning at Keeneland and then back anything else. He looked a machine that day when pulling away to win by over 10 lengths, and if he can repeat that kind of effort on his turf debut he could be more than just plain decent. Better still, as a son of Curlin whose wining form was all between seven furlongs and a mile and a quarter he has to be a freak of nature to burn his rivals off over four and a half furlongs and could yet be something pretty special.
3.05pm
I am clearly 100% missing something that others have spotted ahead of this mile and a half handicap because I cannot for the life of me see why Cloudbreaker is a 25/1 shot when on paper she looks to have an outstanding chance? A lightly raced daughter of Sea The Stars with just the five careers starts and one win at Newmarket as a juvenile, she put in her best effort yet when running on into fourth at Newbury over a mile and a quarter, beaten less than three lengths at the line in Listed company. She gets an added two furlongs here (tick), is due to go up 4lb for future races (tick), drops back into handicap company (tick), and tries first-time cheekpieces to keep her focussed (tick), and if you didn’t know she was such a big price, what is there about her that is not to like?
3.40pm
I have woken up in a surreal World, one where Bluestocking trades here at 15/2, yet her newbury conqueror Warm Heart, in the more than capable hands of Aidan O’Brien and to be ridden by Ryan Moore, trades at 20/1 – go figure when they meet at level weights once again? The Irish raider would be my idea of a value each way play, but she will need to take a step forward to hold off Al Asifah, a complete unknown at the start of May, and now odds-on for a Group Two at Royal Ascot. The daughter of Frankel was no secret when she strolled home on her debut at odds of 8/15 but it was the way she followed up in a Listed race when slowly away before swooping by for a seven length victory. She is up in trip again which is the only hole I can find in her armour as we cannot prove in advance she will stay, but she does look a superstar in the making and is already guaranteed a comfortable new career as a broodmare.
4.20pm
Quite frankly I have never been too enamoured with the Cup races and this season looks a pretty low grade renewal to me until we find the next Stradivarius. Eldar Eldarov is the obvious one but priced accordingly while Charlie Appleby has been pretty sweet on Yibir recently, but I will weigh in with Courage Mon Ami each way, unbeaten after four starts and the mount of Frankie Dettori who rides this place better than anybody on the planet.
5.00pm
Congratulations to whoever find the winner of this ultra-competitive handicap but sadly I rather doubt it will be me. Quantum Impact heads the betting but that may largely be down to the Frankie factor, and if I have a quid each way it will be on One Nation, presumably the Charlie Appleby first string under William Buick, second on both starts this season at Meydan and at 20/1 my idea of a bit of each way value.
5.35pm
I am at it again because someone needs to tell me why Jack Channon’s Caernarfon is a 10/1 shot for this because I am genuinely bemused? Last time out the daughter of Cityscape was a brilliant third in the Epsom Oaks at odds of 40/1, beaten a length and three-quarters and a head at the line after weakening inside the final furlong. She drops back in trip here, is the highest rated horse in this Group Three contest (so dropped in class) by 3lb or more yet she gets another 3lb or more from all of the colts so you tell me – with your hand on your heart (or wallet) that she would be a double figure price if she was trained by an O’Brien or a Gosden?
6.10pm
If I was there in person I might well look for an early go and miss this race completely, not because it isn’t decent but because I have no idea who will win it! I’;m not but you get the point and I have more chance of solving a Rubik’s cube wearing boxing gloves – in the dark. Early favourite Baradar was a little unlucky last time but not enough for me to make him market leader, and if I was given a charity bet (I would not risk my own money) then Redarna could give us a bit of a laugh. A 100/1 chance as a write, he will be ridden by Neil Calan who have a lot of respect for, has won off just 2lb lower in the past, stays further and won’t be stopping with a clear run, handles any ground, and has gone well after a break before – why not if you have to open the wallet this afternoon.
Comments