It’s been a pretty good week so far with enough winners at big enough prices to keep the wolf from the door, though I cannot pretend for an instant it has been anywhere near as much fun as being there, regardless of the on course downpours.
As every year we end with a heady combination of tricky handicaps and group races and with eight contests to work through, it’s time to go to work.
Trying to solve one Wokingham handicaps was always a bit of an issue but this year we start with the consolation version over six furlongs at 12.40pm. The draw is an unknown quantity at present with the weather changing pretty much hourly along with the going so common sense suggests I take one from each side and back them both each way. Of those drawn high I quite like the chances of Burmese Waltz who won all out at Kempton but gets in here off the same mark. That was the four-year-old’s first start for Archie Watson after leaving Ger Lyons and following a 423 day break so it seems safe to assume he will come on for the race, the only issue being whether ten days is long enough for her to recover from a hard enough race. On the other side of the track , Ryan Moore has been booked to ride Magical Wish and he has a great chance if that draw is not his undoing. He cruised in to the lead two out at Lingfield before idling over a furlong further back in March, and if he can repeat that after three months off, he could well be a handful for them all to deal with.
Juveniles again next, this time over the five furlongs for the Queen Mary Stakes and where outsiders Star Of Emaraaty, Scarlet Bear, and Sparkling Perry are the only three to have even raced on going with the word soft in it. Sands Of Time was a horse I nominated elsewhere as one to follow but I never actually expected to see her in a race of this quality (though I still wish her the best of luck), but she will need to improve again to see off likely favourite More Beautiful or Wesley Ward’s Campanelle. Those who saw her put up a mind blowing performance when winning on her Gulfstream debut on firm going will think I am insane (and they may be correct) BUT she is a daughter of Kodiac and his offspring invariably handle plenty of juice underfoot. That doesn’t come with a guarantee sadly, and she may well be better on a faster surface, but her blistering time of 55.66 seconds for the five furlongs suggest she has speed to burn and it will be interesting to see how she gets on here under Frankie Dettori.
Rinse and repeat most of the words written above next as we have up to sixteen juveniles on soft ground most haven’t seen before – only this time over six furlongs for the Coventry Stakes. Leading owners of many a year remain preeminent here with the first five in the betting owned by Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier, Hamdan Al Maktoum, Godolphin, Al Shaqab & Manor House Racing, and Cheveley Park Stud, famous colours the lot of them. Much as I have tried to avoid as many favourites as possible (when I have been able to do so), I can’t easily see past Admiral Nelson here. Although his form amounts to very little after taking a Curragh maiden, he did it with ease and looked a machine in the process, and as a son of Kingman out of an Exceed And Excel mare he is bred to be well above the norm. Naturally, any of the others could improve to become his equal or even his conqueror, with Qaader one to note, but in a race well worth watching for future winners, I will side with Aidan O’Brien’s colt.
The Coronation Stakes at 2.25pm is yet another contest that has had the gloss taken off of it because of the weather I’m afraid, and with a maximum of seven runners we only get a place for first or second. Quadrilateral ran a good race when third in the 1000 Guineas and has won on good to soft ground, but she did look a little one paced in the finish that day and will need to do a little bit more here. Alpine Star is an unknown quantity on her return but ten months of may be a lot to overcome in this company, while had the ground been on the fast side, I would be convinced of a winning run from America raider Sharing who may still go well if handling ground that she has never seen before. For me, Run Wild looks the value call for the in-form John Gosden stable and after running away with the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket over ten furlongs on the seventh, we know she isn’t lacking in stamina. If she has the pace to keep up with the others from the off then she won’t be stopping despite this ground and with decent form on heavy at Newmarket last November, she seems the logical choice.
At 3.00pm up to seven contenders will go to post for the St James’s Palace Stakes over the mile but what a cracker it could turn out to be. Will last year’s top two-year-old Pinatubo bounce back to his very best or will 2000 guineas runner-up Wichita confirm the form? Is the highly regarded Positive ready to make his mark on his first start since coming home a poor sixth in the Dewhurst (Pinatubo, Arizona, and Wichita all in front of him that day), or will the currently unbeaten Palace Pier step up again and shrug off this rise in class? Truth is all options remain on the table I’m afraid, but I am willing to give Pinatubo one more chance. He was a bit bubbly ahead of the Guineas and unruly at the stalls which may well have affected his race and as long as he behaves, perhaps we will see the real colt once again this afternoon.
Those who love a fairy tale will appreciate the presence of Sceptical at the head of the betting after the Exceed And Excel gelding was bought at the horses in training sale for £2,800 in August 2019 when an unraced three-year-old. Four wins from five races since, three on the all-weather and a Listed race on grass at Naas suggest he was money well spent though this is a leap in to Group One class and he needs to improve again to come home at the head of this pack. That is quite possible and I for one will be cheering him home for that reason (someone at Godolphin presumably has questions to answer?), but at the prices I prefer the chances of The Tin Man who is twice his age. He is reported to be bucking and kicking at home ahead of his reappearance and has some decent form on soft ground to his name already and is two pounds better off with Hello Youmzain for half a length on Betfair Sprint Stakes form of last September. He invariably goes well fresh and has won first time out in 2016 and 2018 which is a positive, and at 10/1 he looks to have an outstanding each way chance with Champion jockey Oisin Murphy in the saddle.
Interesting to see that horses drawn two and three head the betting for the Wokingham handicap proper at 4.10pm though whether that will remain the case come the off only time will tell. Mubakker has that little bit more room to improve perhaps after just the five starts and did show his wellbeing with a comfortable win in his return at Newcastle but he did come unstuck (or stuck) on his only start on a softer surface so I will switch my allegiance to Bielsa from the Kevin Ryan yard. Three wins from four starts last season included a two and a quarter length Doncaster success on heavy ground off eight pounds lower, and if he has improved again for another winner on his back he could prove too good for these even off his new handicap mark though I can’t pretend I am writing that with as much confidence as it may sound.
One race to go then it’s all over for this year and we round things off with a two mile five and a half furlong flat handicap, though heaven only knows why! Mekong seems unlikely to turn out again after finishing fifth in the Gold Cup on Thursday afternoon and he had the best chance according to the ratings and that leaves us with a very difficult choice indeed. Fun Mac looks to have place chances on his best form and will be tuned up nicely by trainer Hughie Morrison. The in-form Jim Crowley rides which is a bonus, but he really is a stab in the dark in a race that sadly fails to set the pulse racing but has to be mentioned as the final contest after an amazing week.
Fed up with reading – Day Five about half way through the podcast here
Sean’s Suggestions:
Admiral Nelson 1.50pm Royal Ascot Saturday
The Tin Man each way 3.35pm Royal Ascot Saturday
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