Poor yesterday if I am honest (and I am), with a couple of pales the best I can offer, though someone needs to explain to me how Jack Yeats was ridden to obtain his best possible finishing position as per the rules of racing after clearly acting as nothing more than a pacemaker for winning favourite Japan who impressed. I did warn that may well end up the case but that soothes no wounds and you wonder if the powerhouses get away with murder because of their influence on the sport? Three winning favourites form six races saw the bookmakers suffer (and we all like that), though the defeat of Hermosa came as a shock to most and was my biggest upset on the card but we move on regardless to day five as we come to the end of an exciting and at times stressful week at Royal Ascot. We have had winners, but we have had far more losers (nothing unexpected to be fair), and things haven’t always gone according to plan. I have never ridden a racehorse and probably never will yet I have seen fit to criticise a couple of rides (amazing what money can do), and I suspect you have to be perched on a gee gee’s back to really understand though I do stand by my thoughts made straight after the race and with limited information.
On to what will hopefully be far more positive things and the afternoon’s racing – complete with the possibility of sunshine and perhaps better ground? We open as always with the 2.30pm and the Chesham Stakes over seven furlongs, but life really doesn’t get any easier does it? Seventeen runners, six a winner last time out and five of those currently unbeaten and you can see my predicament, do I follow the betting or the evidence of my own eyes or both. Montanari intrigues as Andrew Balding allows him to make his debut in a race of this calibre suggesting they think something of him, while Lope Y Fernandez impressed at The Curragh and is a worthy favourite for Aidan O’Brien though 6/5 looks too skinny for my liking. Stable companion Year Of The Tiger looks a value alternative under Seamie Heffernan and went in to every notebook after an educational debut when running on late to finish second over a furlong shorter in Ireland. By Galileo out of Cheveley Park Stakes winner Tiggy Wiggy she is bred to be decent enough and could go close at a double figure price.
The Jersey Stakes comes next, a race I like and have had a few winners of over the years yet this line up look a little below the standard normally expected. Space Blues will make a bold bid at landing his hat-trick but needs to improve again to justify his position at the head of the market here and on a day when value looks to be the name of the game I will take the risk on Bye Bye Hong Kong. Trained by Andrew Balding, he won his first two starts this season but was slowly away last time and used up too much energy getting to the leaders before coming home in fourth. It may be that he can’t cope with this level but I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and if he starts well and makes all he could take a lot of catching over this trip from a decent high draw.
The Hardwicke Stakes is a race I have really been looking forward to as Derby winner Masar makes his first appearance since winning at Epsom last season, but he has been sparkling again on the Newmarket gallops and Charlie Appleby is reportedly pleased with his wellbeing. There is little doubt this is a big ask after over. Year off the track but his returns in in a Group Two which is easily within his abilities and at odds approaching the 3/1 mark he cannot run unbacked in the hope he is back to something near to his peak, though feel free to let the market be your guide nearer to race time if that is your preference.
Three races to go and if Blue Point is in the same form that saw him beat Battaash on Tuesday in the King’s Stand Stakes over a furlong shorter then he would be impossible to oppose but brilliant as he is, surely that race will have taken something out of him. I am happy to walk away with egg on my face yet again if he storms home and will have a little each way on Sands Of Mali instead who is officially rated two pounds his inferior, but trades at over six times his price. Richard Fahey adds a tongue tie to the course and distance winner after a third at Hamilton last time out but let’s not forget she beat harry Angel here on soft ground last season and a repeat of that would suggest he could well be massively overpriced.
Six furlongs again in the 5.00pm but the Wokingham handicap is a very different kettle of fish with just the one winning favourite in the last ten years and a 33/1 shock last year with Bacchus. Brian Meehan’s gelding is back again this season but has to carry three pounds more and top-weight in 2019 and that makes it that much of a bigger ask. A quick look at the statistics (I think they call I race profiling) and I had it down to “just” the seven, and with a lucky pin (yet again), I have decided to have 50p each way on Summerghand. The in-form David O’Meara and stable jockey Danny Tudhope is a great start when looking for a bet in this contest after a pair of seconds so far this season. He does need a career best off this mark but has what looks a decent draw in the fifteen stall as well and looks a bit of value on a tricky final day.
And so, after five days of burning midnight oil looking for winners (or at least horses with decent chances), we have the grand finale, the Queen Alexandra Stakes over a massive two miles five and a half furlongs. No big shock to see that this race is regularly taken by trainers better known for their exploits at the National Hunt game (Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins, and Gordon Elliott to name but three). Pallasator is back to try and retain his crown and races off two pounds lower this season making him an interesting option though his recent races do make the 9/1 look on the short side. This trip is a huge question mark for almost all of these and it’s even more guesswork than other races I’m afraid, but I feel duty bound to name one, and Black Corton it is – with near to no confidence. A decent hurdler and even better over fences he needs to adapt to these conditions, but Megan Nicholls will give him an excellent ride regardless and he could run in to a place at a massive price.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Year Of The Tiger each-way 2.30pm Royal Ascot Saturday
Bye Bye Hong Kong each-way 3.05pm Royal Ascot Saturday
Masar 3.40pm Royal Ascot Saturday
Sands Of Mali each-way 4.20pm Royal Ascot Saturday
Summerghand each-way 5.00pm Royal Ascot Saturday
Black Corton each-way (NAP) 5.35pm Royal Ascot Friday
Good luck as always,
Sean
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