ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
NO chat, NO BS, just a brief synopsis of each race with NO expectations that we will find all the winners (I wish) – but enjoy regardless (or pick your own selections, of course), and best of luck to anyone considering a punt!
Thursday 20th June
2.30pm
We start the day with the Norfolk stakes over a fast five furlongs (if the opening days are anything to go by), and with 13 two-year-olds, six of them unbeaten and a further four a winner last time out. We cannot second guess who will improve and by how much which is what makes this tougher to call, with the form in the book and past statistics all we have to rely on. We haven’t seen a winning favourite in the last 10 years (at least) with a 150/1 winner last year and a 50/1 winner in 2022 so all things seem possible, and if you have your own fancy, don’t let me put you off! Whether Whistlejacket’s form was franked or not is open to question with the horse who beat him on debut seventh in the Coventry Stakes on Tuesday, but less than two lengths off the winner, and he heads the market at a very short price. He did stroll home on his next start at The Curragh in Listed class and is clearly the one to beat, but 5/4 as I write is a stinking price in such a competitive race on paper. Saturday Flirt for Wesley Ward could be the each way call if he doesn’t fluff the start over this trip, but the formbook does at least suggest we ought to see a winning favourite for a change.
3.05pm
Chantilly heads the betting for the Aiden O’Brien team but he does have the best of records in this race and may be worth opposing with a bigger priced each way option. Candle Of Dubai would be my pick if Charlie Johnston’s filly gets in (she is first reserve at this moment in time) and she does look well handicapped off an opening mark of 81, but if she doesn’t get in, then Naval Force looks a massive price in the circumstances. Trained by Donnacha O’Brien, the son of Churchill won last time out at Roscommon by half a length despite giving lengths away at every bend, but if he keeps a straighter path here he could go well with the step up in trip, faster ground, and second race of the season all very much in his favour.
3.45pm
After the disappointment of Notable Speech on Tuesday, backing unbeaten Charlie Appleby horses comes with a wealth warning, but it is hard to see past Diamond Rain here, whatever the price. The daughter of Shamardal started off with a head win here over a mile, but showed plenty of improvement to run away with a Listed race at Newbury last time out, winning by over two lengths over the mile and a quarter, and pulling away late on. She steps up to a mile and a half here which is the only concern, but if she stays, she has a touch of class about her, though it is interesting to see that Siyola, third that day, reopposes here for the Gosdens, and she could be an each way alternative.
4.25pm
Kyprios won this in 2022 and missed last year, but he has looked as good as ever with two odds-on wins this season and arrives the odds-on favourite – which won’t make us rich. Of course he ought to win, and probably will, but if you fancy an each way alternative, you could do a lot worse than Coltrane who will be carrying my money, though not too much of it. 14/1 looks big for a horse who has won over course and distance, won’t mind the faster ground (unlike Trawlerman who was third at Meydan where his jockey reported he hated the firm ground) ), and is officially on a par with the favourite according to current ratings. A winner last time out here, he will be spot on, and with Oisin Murphy in the saddle, I am hopeful if not confidence of a bold showing.
5.05pm
Trying to find the winner of a 30 runner handicap is akin to solving a Rubiks cube in the dark wearing boxing gloves, but we will give it a go regardless. I suspect Mickley would be a shorter price were he handled by a “famous name” trainer and he can go well for Ed Bethell, as can Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Son Of Man, but much as I hate picking favourites without good reason, Quirat will do for me. Ralph Beckett’s son of Showcasing was short of room at Goodwood on his return to action but ran on well to win over seven furlongs by a length and a quarter, and a 4lb rise from the handicapper doesn’t look too punitive. It seems reasonable to assume he can improve for his first start since early October, and even if he heads the markets, 10/1 is a stonking each way price.
5.40pm
I am willing to acknowledge that King’s Gambit was mightily impressive when taking a Class Two handicap at Newbury on his only start this season, but I cannot fathom (famous last words) why he is as short as 5/2 favourite here when you look at the class of the opposition. Stromberg is an outsider to consider after a good second at The Curragh last time out and he may go well at 40/1 or thererabouts, but surely this is First Look’s to lose? 9/2 is freely available as I write and that looks outstanding value for a horse who is officially rated 7lb better than all of his rivals. Trained in France by Andre Fabre, or “God” as he is known by his fellow handlers, his last run saw him beaten a couple of lengths in the Group One Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) and although this will be the fastest ground he has encountered by far, he is by Lope De Vega who has a 34% progeny strike rate on Good ground and a 31% on good to firm – with lower figures on softer ground to back up my position. Admittedly he has only won once and placed on three other occasions, but he was the stable third string at Chantilly and is their only contender here.
6.15pm
A tough race to end the card (as usual), with a full field of 29 runners heading into battle over the seven furlongs. At first glance I was all over Fresh for the James Fanshawe stable with his course record of three wins and three places with two of those victories off higher marks, and he can go well at his favourite track under Hayley Turner, though he is owned by Clipper Logistics, suggesting Danny Tudhope would have had the opportunity to ride him – if he wanted to. That points me to the each way chances of Alzahir, a 28/1 chance who could pull off a shock. Trained by David O’Meara, the source of numerous winners for the jockey over the years, the four-year-old has a win over this trip to his name and one over further, and looked to be being primed for this when fourth at Chester last month where he pulled too hard to ever get serious. I may be imagining it, but you can’t unsee things, and with the Fanshawe horse and possibly all four O’Meara horses to pick from, the fact that he is on board the son of Sea The Stars looks like a pretty decent hint to me.
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