This one may well be trickier for you to read than for me to write as I play pool (badly) on a Wednesday evening so the Thursday preview is being written on the afternoon before, meaning results are coming in (and amending my thought processes) by the second. A third in the opener and a second from Magical looked as good as it was going to get but NO, Afaak took the Royal Hunt Cup at odds of 20/1 (I got 28/1 in the morning) and made everything alright in the World once again, putting us in to the black assuming we always play to level stakes, of course.
As every day we get in to gear from 2.30pm onwards and fifteen runners attack the five furlongs of the Group Two Norfolk Stakes where stamina may well be more important than some pundits seem to think, with the likelihood of a suicidal early pace as well as the softer going that the majority were not bred to face. Sunday Sovereign heads the overnight market after an easy seven length success at Tipperary but he needs to step up in that in this better company. The son of Equiano certainly has every chance but 5/2 is a skinny price and there may be better value in backing Mount Fuji each-way. When you look at the results earlier this week and add them to the ridiculous overall record of Aidan O’Brien you have to think that double figures for the once raced winning son of Dark Angel looks a little generous. He wasn’t exactly impressive at Cork when taking his maiden, but he seems sure to improve considerably for that experience and he seems sure to go well at a sensible price.
Some classy horses have taken the Group Two Hampton Court Stakes over the years including the likes of Time test and Hawkbill to name just the two, but at first glance, the 2019 combatants have plenty to find to reach their level. Eightsome rell may be a big priced outsider but if he can win then the roof will come off as he races in The Queen’s colours and regardless of the republicans amongst the population, Ascot is not the place to be anything other than a loyal subject! I doubt that particular fairy tale will come true (but stranger things have happened), and common sense suggests that the in-form combo of Sir Michael Stoute and Frankie Dettori could go close here with Sangarius. Just the one run this season saw a third at Sandown but he has long looked as if this mile and a quarter may see him improve even further and with a win on Good to Soft as a two-year-old fingers crossed for a huge effort.
Back to Aidan O’Brien for the Ribblesdale Stakes and with three of the last five winners arriving from his yard he clearly knows exactly the sort needed to go well here. Fleeting looked a little unlucky when a running on third in the Epsom oaks after meeting trouble in running and with the slower going blunting the speed of her lesser rivals here, she may be able to get ample compensation here, though once again I cannot pretend to be overly confident. Queen Power looks the obvious danger for Sir Michael Stoute and is improving hand over fist and has the excellent Silvestre De Sousa in the saddle which is never a bad thing but if we have lady Luck on our side, she will hopefully be playing for second and nothing more.
On to the big race of the day and for some of the entire week as the Gold Cup sees eleven all set to do battle over the two and a half miles as Stradivarius looks to double up after winning this last season for John Gosden and jockey Frankie Dettori. He will take some stopping and deserves to go off a short priced favourite but there is a school of thought that he has appeared while there is a glaringly obvious shortage of high class stayers. That seems likely to remain in the future as the breeding industry continues to focus on speed but he will have to face the classy Cross Counter in 2019. Six wins from just the nine starts makes for good reading and include the Melbourne Cup on his first try at two miles followed by the Dubai Gold Cup at the end of March. I had heard that he was working well ahead of those races and that the step up in trip would see him in a better light, and although this added half a mile is unknown territory, if he does stay he ought to give the favourite plenty to think about.
Two handicaps to round off the card and I have already made my overall feelings pretty clear about those – though a 20/1 winner yesterday soothes the ire a little as well as the bank manager. 9/1 the field tells us all just how competitive the one mile Britannia Stakes at 5.00pm is and if I have a bet, its small stakes once again. Three-year-olds only means they are all open to even more improvement and one winning favourite suggests it is a bookmakers benefit so I thought a little look at the stats might help. Twenty-one of the last twenty-two winners have hit a top five finish last time out but that only rules out a few here, while the draw sees a scattering of results and seems of precious little use. Not one trainer has won this twice in the last decade, though Jamie Spencer and Ryan Moore have taken it twice each, for what that is worth. James Doyle is a jockey I have a lot of time for and for that reason alone it will be 50p each way on Velorum but if you want to make a cuppa, this race may be the best time to do it.
One race to go and the O’Brien record in handicaps isn’t all that to be honest and I will be happily opposing Constantinople for that reason alone. Almania looks intriguing for numerous reasons, not least the drop in to handicap company after the Group Two Dante Stakes at York last time out. A son of Australia out of a Footstepsinthesand mare the mile and a half is not guaranteed in my view, but Sir Michael Stoute knows a lot more than I do and has booked the excellent James McDonald to ride. Priced at 16/1 or bigger he is a risky alternative, but would be nearer 10/1 in my book making him value in these tricky circumstances.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Mount Fuji each-way 2.30pm Royal Ascot Thursday
Sangarius each-way 3.05pm Royal Ascot Thursday
Fleeting 3.40pm Royal Ascot Thursday
Cross Counter 4.20pm Royal Ascot Thursday
Velorum each-way 5.00pm Royal Ascot Thursday
Almania each-way 5.35pm Royal Ascot Thursday
Good luck as always,
Sean
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