A decent priced winner again yesterday as 13/2 shot Sangarius took the Hampton Court Stakes pretty easily (I took 9/1 in the morning and hope you did too), and that represented a profit on the day, though I am still wondering why Ryan Moore left Fleeting with so much to do in the Ribblesdale when finishing a running on second to Star Catcher. By the time that race was over Frankie Dettori had ridden the first three winners and the bookmakers were already ducking for cover as the punters backed anything the popular Italian rode, smashing the prices down from realistic to far too short. I did seriously consider laying all his remaining mounts on the exchanges on the assumption they would all be under-priced and over bet, but Stradivarius always had a great chance and I waited to lay Turgenev at a silly price which turned out to be a sensible move, though as he went clear with a furlong to go I will admit it was a worrying moment! I do have to wonder why James Doyle (who I am a massive fan of) left Cross Counter so far adrift early in the Gold Cup when it was so obvious to all that there was precious little early pace?
As you will have read elsewhere, Aidan O’Brien ended the days with a one-two-three in the finale though I can only hope that some of you searched out a “first five home each way” bookmaker after Almania filled that place in the finale – I did but I won’t be claiming it as a success, just hopeful you managed to eke out that little bit more profit.
Two more days remaining at Royal Ascot and so many confusing signals coming out of the early betting for the opener at 2.30pm, the Albany Stakes over six furlongs for two-year-old fillies. Nayibeth trades as the favourite overnight yet John Velasquez rides Chili Petin for the same handler, So Wonderful trades at 12/1 for Aidan O’Brien yet Ryan Moore rides 16/1 stablemate Precious Moments, and Godolphin’s once raced unbeaten Silent Wave is a sorely tempting 14/1. Add in the classy Exclusively from the Archie Watson stable and a long list of others with untapped potential, and we have a betting minefield that I am almost too scared to step in to. Nothing would surprise me here with winners ranging from 7/4 to 20/1 in the last seven years so whichever horse I go with comes with risks attached but Galadriel is the one lumbered with my selection here. As green as grass on her debut when fourth at York, the fact that she debuted in Listed class suggests they think a lot of her and once she got the hang of what was needed, she ran on to some purpose over a furlong shorter. Sure to improve for that run and with Andrea Atzeni in the saddle she should give us a good run for our money, though personally I won’t be risking that much on her chances in this highly competitive field.
Next up we have the King Edward VII Stakes at 3.05pm where Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore are expected to visit the winner’s enclosure once again, this time with Epsom Derby third Japan. Only beaten half a length in Surrey and dropping in class this afternoon he is the one to beat on all known form, but is he has unbeatable as a price close to Evens suggests? Stable companion Jack Yeats only has a maiden win to his name but as a son of Galileo out of Fire Lily he is bred to be far better than we have seen so far and 33/1 or bigger looks sorely temping each way. Be warned, he could yet be employed as a pacemaker for his better fancied buddy and thus finish nearer last than first but if not, he looks the value call, though again just to small stakes.
The Aidan O’Brien show continues in the Commonwealth Cup next, a six furlong Group One sprint over six furlongs and part of the British Champions Series. Ten Sovereigns was sent off favourite for the English 2000 Guineas last month when looking as if he didn’t get home over the mile, beaten close to five lengths at the line. Unbeaten over this six furlong trip, if he can repeat his Middle Park form here having proved (in my eyes) that he has trained on, then he will take all the beating and will be my first suggested favourite on the card.
As I continue down the card this is getting boring to write (and possibly to read, you tell me) as (you guessed it), we have yet another O’Brien trained favourite ahead of the Coronation Stakes. Hermosa has done nothing wrong this season with a length win in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and a four length romp in the Irish equivalent. She has won on soft going (albeit as a two-year-old) which is an added bonus and she ought to prove too good for all of these, with Castle Lady an interesting alternative who may be the one to follow the selection home.
No short priced shots in the next as twenty-eight runners are due to go to post over the straight mile of the Sandringham Stakes, a 0-105 handicap won by 11/2 favourite Agrotera last year for trainer Ed Walker with Jamie Spencer on board, winning the race for the second season in a row and the third time in the last ten years. He rides Hotsy Totsy for the same stable here as the Casamento filly looks to land her hat-trick after successes at Salisbury and Kempton after her debut third and is improving all the time. A mark of 90 may well underestimate her abilities and at 8/1 or better she will be carrying the Trivass money this afternoon with the eighteen stall looking an acceptable draw.
One race to go before they all start singing around the bandstand (I swear my American friends love that more than the racing), and for anyone without a winner on the card so far, this looks as tough as the preceding contest. I am very wary of Charlie Appleby’s Secret Advisor but it will be some training performance if he is fit enough for a race of this magnitude after twenty-two months off the track and carrying seven pounds more than his last win over further at York. He could surprise us all, but it looks too big an ask to me, and I will be on Pivione each way instead. Fourth last time out to Prince Of Wales’s Stakes winner Crystal Ocean, the son of Redoute’s Choice was not disgraced that day and drops back in to handicap company here off the same mark which may well be exploited by trainer Andrew Balding and jockey Silvestre De Sousa who seems sure to give the five-year-old a good ride.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Galadriel each-way 2.30pm Royal Ascot Friday
Jack Yeats each-way 3.05pm Royal Ascot Friday
Ten Sovereigns 3.40pm Royal Ascot Friday
Hermosa 4.20pm Royal Ascot Friday
Hotsy Totsy each-way 5.00pm Royal Ascot Friday
Pivione each-way (NAP) 5.35pm Royal Ascot Friday
Good luck as always,
Sean
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