Bits and pieces last week but the one suggested bet won easily enough and we added a couple of others, though Mishriff was the one that got away in writing at least, tipped up as an each way option on the attached podcast – but I ran out of time to put my thoughts down in writing.
Hugh Morgan is not a name that I knew a lot about, to be honest, but he made the headlines last week with his ride on Young Dev, described elsewhere as ride of the year/decade/century, depending on your publication of choice (surely this one?). If you haven’t seen it please do so here where you will soon see him lose his irons after the first and have to ride the rest of the race with his legs swinging away like pendulums. If you have read about it, do watch it again, and if you haven’t, I won’t spoil it for you, but suffice to say the trainers in attendance in Ireland clapped him in after the race was over, and that doesn’t happen very often. Amazingly, we can’t stop there after James Bowen rode pretty much all of a Chepstow bumper on Thursday with one reign after the other snapped shortly after the start. Steering was obviously an issue on Mot A Mot so he wisely allowed him to stride on early (I doubt he had much choice to be fair), somehow coming home in front before struggling to stop after the race before Paddy Brennan stepped in on his mount to help to guide the youngster to a stop. He did nearly crash on to the wing of one of the removed hurdles (no surprise there), but we still witnessed a remarkable display of horsemanship worthy of applause, again reminding us of their skills in the saddle that we are inclined to take for granted most of the time (watch it here).
Although we haven’t quite made it as far as Cheltenham yet, the way out of lockdown roadmap has everyone in the sport talking about the Grand National – and whether to move it a week so the seventeenth of April in the hope that bookmakers will be open by then. Plenty of racing folk have suggested it is a great idea, but with covid still a risk, I have to wonder whether crowed high street bookmakers are such a sensible idea just yet? In case no-one has noticed, I suspect the vast majority of bets placed these days are on-line, an option available to most of us either directly or, heaven forbid, by getting a friend to place a bet for you. I do understand the reason everyone wants a high turnover on the race (especially the bookmakers, funnily enough), but having taken a perhaps unfair proportion of the blame after allowing Cheltenham to go ahead last year with crowds, this seems like another opportunity for a racing own goal and if it was my choice, I wouldn’t be taking such a huge risk. Update – since starting to write this, common sense prevails and the National will remain on the original date.
Meanwhile, as a huge fan of International racing I was shocked and horrified to see Arlington put up for sale in the USA. Six more years and they would have been celebrating their centenary, but with over 300 acres of potential prime real estate, the money isn’t in racing but in housing, even in the wide open spaces of America. Sad as I will be to see it go, I am far more concerned about our tracks where I suspect the value per acre could well be much higher. Where I live the golf courses are gradually closing down for exactly that reason and although I appreciate market forces make the final decisions, our racing is the envy of the World as much for our variety as the quality, and I am very wary of that being watered down if the bean counters get their way.
On to the racing and its better than I expected pre Cheltenham – though do expect that to get watered down between now and Festival Day.
Saturday Racing:
Lingfield 2.05pm
Usually, it is the beginning of the flat season on turf that sees the age old question of fitness (off the all-weather) versus class after a lay-off, but this race has exactly the same ingredients which is what makes life interesting, I suppose. Hot favourite Moss Gill is rated six pounds or more better than all of his rivals today, but he hasn’t been seen since finishing fourth in a similar race at Nottingham in October. He has won five times at this trip of five furlongs and once on the all-weather (at Wolverhampton), but he is having his first start at Lingfield and at 11/10 seems short enough to me, and there is hopefully better value to be had elsewhere. The year older Lord Riddiford looks an each way alternative at 6/1 or bigger and arrives with a race fitness advantage after winning by three-quarters of a length at Wolverhampton two weeks ago. Although he has a bit to find on official ratings, he has won three times in Class Two events which is effectively one step down and deserves his first attempt in in Listed class, with a place paying a small profit and a win as I hope, a whole lot more.
Lingfield 2.40pm
Over £30,000 for the winner of the Winter Derby and with the same surface as always, so why oh why has it only attracted five runners? It beggars belief as owners moan about prize money to have another poor turnout, but it is what it is and gives them all something to aim for with £1468.50 for the horse coming home in last place – nice work if you can get it. Johnny Drama is the highest rated runner but may be better suited by further than this mile and a quarter, though you can never ignore Andrew Balding in these events especially when Ryan Moore has been booked to ride, though he may even be forced to make his own running to ensure a decent test of stamina that would see him at his best. John Gosden has won the last two runnings of this event with Wissahickon (1/4f) in 2019 and then Dubai Warrior (13/8) last season suggesting that Forest Of Dean is one to consider though he is yet to reach his peak following two thirds this season, the latest behind Bangkok over course and distance earlier in the month when caught and passed close home. He holds Johnny Drama on York form (though that was on turf) and should go close on Saturday, but Father Of Jazz is improving so fast that he can hopefully take this in his stride. The son of Kingman out of a Galileo mare has won all three starts since joining Roger Varian from the Michael Bell yard, despite appearing to be a touch unruly and pulling too hard for his own good on occasion, but with more to come I feel he can improve past all of these under Callum Shepherd and take this valuable prize.
Kempton 1.50pm
A classy contest won by horses of the calibre of Captain Chris, Frodon, and Cyrname in recent years, but a frankly disappointing four runners in 2021 without a last time out win between them. With Paul Nicholls responsible for five of the last ten winners it makes sense to see Tamaroc Du Mathan at the head of the market, and time may soon show that his thirteen length second to Shishkin was nothing to be ashamed of. His 2020 third in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury suggests he will be as good or even better on this quicker ground, though the same remark also applies to Ga Law who ran well when third to Allmankind at Sandown on ground that may prove to have been softer than ideal. I would be surprised if the winner didn’t come from this pairing but I honestly can’t decide between the two with the narrowest of preferences for the Nicholls horse whose form looks a fraction the stronger.
Kempton 2.25pm
Every chance that this race will have a major bearing on the ante post market for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham with Tritonic plenty short enough in the market after a winning debut over hurdles that saw him lead close home after some sticky jumping on the way round. He is forecast to go off Evens or so here and will need to win easily to justify his price for the Festival, but in turn, as a punter I have to wonder if that means I can find a bit of each way value elsewhere. Second favourite Honneur D’Ajonc was going to win until falling at the last here but at 7/2 isn’t considered, though it is surprising that Gary Moore is happy to allow Casa Loupi, beaten by the jolly on his hurdling debut, to reoppose here and I will be watching his progress with interest. Pasa Doble and John Locke have their hurdling debuts for powerful stables and are perhaps best watched, leading me to French challenger Margaret’s Legacy who seems overpriced at 11/1. The winner of both his starts over hurdles at Cagnes-Sur-Mer, he loves to front run and although heh as to give weight away to all of these, he may well take some catching and is the one I will be backing on Saturday afternoon (partly because Margaret was my dear Mum’s name as well).
Kempton 3.00pm
This race is seriously interesting! Five and six-year-olds dominate recent runnings of this race yet sat at the bottom we have an improving four year old in Pyramid Place, the winner of his last two races but the ran outsider here at 22/1. More importantly, he is engaged in two handicaps at Cheltenham but looking at past runnings of both of those races, he may well need to be rated a few pounds higher to get a get in to either of them. The point there is not that he will or won’t win, but that he will have been found a race he can go close in by trainer Milton Harris who will want his rating to go up a few pounds for the reasons stated. Personally, I feel this may be a bridge too far (though he could place), and prefer the chances of favourite Atholl Streetwho won pulling a cart last time out at Taunton and went in to every notebook. This is his toughest task to date without a doubt but he deserves the step up in class though be warned, the once raced Calico can only improve for experience and could yet make him pull out all the stops.
Kempton 3.35pm
Oh dear, it’s time for the weekly handicap and a chance to look through all the stats before finding a horse or two that, on paper at least, look like they fit recent trends. Using the last 24 runnings, I note that only one winner had finished his or her last race and come home outside the front five, and if we follow that stat, risky as it is, we can wave goodbye to second favourite Al Dancer, 12/1 chance The Butcher Said, last year’s winner Mister Malarkey, plus Fingerontheswitch, Erick Le Rouge, and Young Wolf – six down and “just” the 12 to go! Nothing rated over 154 has managed to shoulder their big weight to success losing Black Corton, Aso, and Talkischeap, and with zero winners off the course for more than 120 days, farewell to Delire D’Estruval as well. Twenty two of the 24 winners came from the first eight in the betting and if we add that stat, we are left with Cap Du Nord, Clondaw Castle, Double Shuffle, Southfield Stone, and Slate House and the winner should, statistically, come from those five. Personally, I will have a few forecasts and tricasts to pennies for fun, but I ought to end up with one selection and that will be Southfield Stone each way. Although Slate House has won twice off higher marks the Tizzard yard are out of form again and the Nicholls horse, who has won off three pounds higher in the past, looks the likelier winner and at 11/1 he looks to have a sporting chance.
Newcastle 3.15pm
One handicap is normally more than enough for my little brain but the Eider Chase is special and deserves a place in this weekend’s line-up. Raced over four miles one and a half furlongs and on soft ground this trip will take some getting but once again, it is time to delve in to the stats. You will be delighted to know I won’t be boring you with all the details this time around but suffice to say I can remove Friends Don’t Ask (odds), Big River, Salty Boy, Haul Us In (last time out finish), Crosspark and The Dutchman (ratings), and that leaves me with a not so short shortlist of six horses - Sam’s Adventure, Cyclop, Springfield Fox, Crossley Tender, Little red Lion, and Strong Economy who I will play in silly forecasts and tricasts. Of those one stands out for me, and that is Strong Economy each way at 12/1. In the form of his life with two recent wins at Ayr over three miles and three miles three he ran on late last time out and looks the most likely to be suited by this marathon trip and although racing from three pounds out of the handicaps, he still ought to put in a decent showing.
Fairyhouse 1.45pm
Willie Mullins has won five of the last ten runnings of this two mile hurdle but he doesn’t have a representative here so it’s back to the drawing board. Petit Mouchoir needs to buck the trends to win this at the age of ten but has a solid enough chance on his best form but I have a very narrow preference for Darasso who is, in my opinion, sensibly dropped back in trip this afternoon. He is proving hard to win with and his last success over hurdles was two years ago at Gowran Park but he has run well in defeat since (as well as winning over fences), including a third to Beacon Edge last weekend at Navan over further. First time blinkers may well help today (I am hoping they do), then he has a solid chance, though this is a race I won’t be betting in for all the right reasons in a contest that I think is very difficult to call.
Fairyhouse 2.52pm
Just the five runners to work on but another conundrum I am finding difficult to solve. Making assumptions can be any punter’s undoing but it seems fair to guess that Anibale Fly, running for the first time since March last year and presumably having a prep run before another attempt at the Grand National. If that is the case, he ought to need this and that allows me to move on to Burrows Saint as trainer Willie Mullins looks to win this for the sixth year in a row, and ninth time in the last eleven years (including today). Forecast to go off at Evens the eight-year-old has been thrashed on both starts this season yet still appears to be the stable first pick with Paul Townend on board and Danny Mullins on Acapella Bourgeois who is my selection (and who won this last year, by the way). He seems to me to have the better recent form with a second to Al Boum Photo in January and a fifth to Coko Beach (winner since) the same month and at the prices he may just be worthy of the risk.
Sunday Racing:
Fontwell 3.10pm
One of the best races held at Fontwell all season and one I am really looking forward to at one of my favourite tracks. Two miles three furlongs await the field of six in a race that invariably goes to one of the bigger yards, and in 2021 I am hoping it will be Paul Nicholls. McFabulous has been living up to his name lately with wins at Kempton (twice) and Chepstow in the last twelve months with a top-class third to Thyme Hill over further perhaps his most solid form. Talk of him as a Stayers Hurdle contender may be a little wide of the mark for this season anyway but this trip looks his ideal to me even if he does get further, and with the likelihood of more to come he ought to prove very difficult to beat. He is most certainly a chaser in the making and I am sorely tempted to take a big price for the three mile chase at Cheltenham for 2022 (he is held in that high regard at home at Ditcheat), but that is not to say he can’t win a few more over hurdles before then, with this and then a trip to Aintree over two and a half miles his expected route. If he fails to fire on all cylinders they are queuing up in a strong field with Molly Ollys Wishes likely to set off like a scalded cat to make this more of a stamina test and she could take some catching getting nine pounds from the selection, while Cornerstone Lad would have been considered had the Micky Hammond string been in better form.
Naas 2.00pm
Not much of a race on paper to be honest, but I try to cover the better contests and as a Grade Three chase this fits the bill. A very disappointing four runner line up failed to bring a smile to my face but once again to look like that man Willie Mullins will be taking home the prize money via Cilaos Emery who is the best horse in the race on official figures – though he does have to give plenty of weight to main rival Daly Tiger in what could well be a match. Second to Bachasson on his only outing this season when jumping worse than I do and failing to see out the two and a half miles he drops back in trip here and with that run under his belt, and the likelihood of plenty of intensive schooling at home, he ought to do a lot better here. Daly Tiger arrives at the top of his game after winning a Fairyhouse handicap last time out but he is a bit if a character and may find this step in class catches him out unless he is having a good day, and I for one won’t be bothering to have a bet when both the market leaders have question marks against either their jumping or their attitude.
Naas 3.00pm
Interesting to see that six-year-olds dominate this contest (six of the last ten and the last three in succession), especially when the two that stand out for me are aged seven and five, so something has to give. Streets Of Doyen is looking to land his five timer here after wins at Roscommon, Gowran Park, Cork and most recently Cheltenham where he stayed on strongly over the three miles – so why are they running him over two miles this afternoon. He did win his bumper over this trip back in 2019 but stamina seems to be his forte and even first time cheekpieces seem unlikely to inject sufficient speed for him to challenge some of these over the minimum trip, though he is an intriguing runner and one to at least keep an eye on for future contests. Echoes In Rain won her maiden here with ease but pulled too hard when fourth to Dreal Deal on heavy ground at Punchestown but gets a slightly better surface today and may well settle a little better as she racks up experience. As a mare she gets weight from all of these and the better the ground, the better her chances in my view and given a soft lead as expected, she could take some catching assuming she settles. The dark horse here has to be Joseph O’Brien’s Desir Du large, a bumper winner at Fairyhouse on the 1st December 2018 – and not seen since. I would guesstimate that form as a rating around the 133 mark which would put him in here with a very decent shout, but this is his hurdling debut and first start for over two years, and unless the market suggests otherwise, he will surely do nothing but improve for the run – though the fact that they have kept him in training suggests he is not without some ability.
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Sean’s Suggestions:
Father Of Jazz 2.40pm Lingfield Saturday
McFabulous 3.10pm Fontwell Sunday
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