It has been the start of the silly season here in the UK with some unexpected twists and turns all week that really deserve some discussion, however brief.
Firstly, my memory may not be what it once was, but I cannot remember a horse ever being forcibly withdrawn by the BHA following a gamble, the size of which is currently unknown. That is exactly what happened to Aces Full, backed from 14/1 to 9/4 favourite at Exeter who was withdrawn by the Stewards with the matter referred to the BHA integrity department. Naturally, I suspect this is the start of a much bigger enquiry, and we won’t know the answers for some time, but I do have to question why this one horse and sole gamble was “picked on” for further investigation when I witness gambles of this sort each and every day? There may well be more to this than the information available in the public domain, but for me this was an extraordinary event which raises a good few questions with the bookmakers themselves apparently the whistle blowers. Does that statement suggest that if a bookmakers suddenly realise he is facing serious liabilities they can simply contact the. BHA and have the horse withdrawn, because that is a very slippery slope to worry about over the months and years ahead, and personally I have no issue with an old fashioned gamble IF the clues are there for those who look hard enough.
As if that wasn’t enough we then had the Bravemansgame fiasco. Questions over the conduct of one of his owners are not for me to answer, but for that to force the withdrawal of the favourite for the big race on Friday is another new one on me, and although possibly the correct thing to do, it does not paint our sport in a poor light and gives us publicity we really don’t need. Worse than that, I am currently unclear what happens to any ante-post bets on the horse for the race – those who backed him recently may be on at non-runner no bet terms, but anyone who backed him months ago could potentially lose their stakes and once again, I haven’t seen a situation like this that I ember and can’t see why any punters should end up out of pocket?
That’s your lot for this week (my brain hurts), so on to the racing….
This week I am unsurprisingly focussing on Aintree – and the dreaded Grand National meeting– here we go…
Saturday
Aintree
1.45pm
We won’t get rich backing Jonbon here but Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old is hard to bet against in a race perhaps best watched. The winner of his first three starts over fences, he was put in his place by the Willie Mullins trained El Fabiolo at Cheltenham in the Arkle Trophy, but time may prove that to have been an impossible ask. My only issue is that he did have quite a hard race that day which may have left its mark, but the formbook clearly points to his chances – I just won’t back anything in a novice chase at odds on for very sensible reasons!
2.25pm
My first real chance to play with the stats in this three mile plus handicap and it will be interesting to see who does or does not fall by the wayside. A first and very detailed sweep got rid of 12 of the 22 but leaving myself with 10 to work with didn’t make life that much easier. Outlaw Peter made the shortlist as he looks for the hat-trick after wins at Wincanton and Kempton and as he only has another 5lb from the handicapper here and represents a stable whose horses are running to form, he is just too tempting at 14/1 or thereabouts. He should go well, but I am wary of horses such as Henry’s Friend at a huge price with the novice very likely to have plenty more to offer as he gains in experience.
3.00pm
One pass of the long list of historical statistics soon saw the field of 15 cut back to just the five contenders in my eyes (famous last words), and for anyone interested, those five are Dark Raven, Hermes Allen, Irish Point, Springwell Bay, and You Wear it Well. At the risk of thinking Paul Nicholls will sweep the card today, I refuse to believe we saw the true Hermes Allen at Cheltenham when he was only sixth in the Ballymore, and although the softer ground was put forward as the reason for his below par effort, I felt he pulled too hard too early to do himself justice. He may get better ground this afternoon (it has been raining but there is also plenty of drying wind to balance that out), and if he doesn’t get quite so excited pre-race then I am hoping he can get back to winning ways here.
3.35pm
This is a race where the stats tell me very very little to be honest, though I have (very reluctantly) removed Champ as an 11-year-old with less than three starts this season, meaning he has to buck the trends to come home in front. I still think he can go well, and I still think he has been saved for this, but there is no point in spending days going though past performances and then ignoring what I find, and I will reluctantly side with Flooring Porter. The winner of the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham in both 2021 and 2022, it was no secret that he had his issues and it was a bit of a rush to get him there for this season. I think he did remarkably well in the circumstances to come home fourth, beaten less than four lengths at the line, and although he has to reverse the Cheltenham form with winner Sire Du Berlais (who beat him two lengths in this last year), he has only had the one run and will arrive here considerably fresher than most.
4.15pm
It doesn’t get any easier does it? 15 runners (so I will be shopping around for a bookie paying out on the first four regardless), and another tricky handicap to try to work out. Only seven drop off the shortlist on the stats which isn’t as much help as I would have liked, but we deal with what is in front of us and I am going to take a risk to small stakes on Shakem Up’Arry for the excellent Ben Pauling. Lightly raced this season with just the three starts, he won at Exeter on his return and has followed that with a fifth at Cheltenham and a third in the Plate back at the same course at the Festival. He tries a new trip here and his stamina has to be taken on trust, but he looks as if he may improve for the new trip (especially around Aintree), and off just a pound higher, he could go well at a double figure pice.
5.15pm
I am going to go through all the stats for this race then tell you where they point – though no guarantee that will see my final selection. This is the race everyone loves, though I have never worked out why – a fiendishly difficult handicap over a marathon trip and with unusual fences – yet this is the one where my phone never stops ringing on raceday expecting me to know the winner. A 50/1 shot last year, a 66/1 winner in 2013, and a 33/1 victor in 2016 should tell us all that nothing is obvious at Aintree, but we will give it a go nonetheless.
My first pass looked at a 92% success rate or above, i.e. stats that have seen 92% of the last 25 winners and IF they are repeated, I can put a line through plenty of the 40 and that in turn leaves me with “just” the 20 to work with – so half the field gone (if only life was so easy). I cant work with 20 so we need to do more, and common sense suggests every horse carrying more than their allotted handicap mark is up against it, so we can lose another five, but I am still left with a bigger number than your average Saturday field size. My next cut comes for horses who MAY (no rude letters from trainers please) be on the downgrade, i.e. those whose handicap mark will drop for future contests, and that loses me another two, and for those who care, my (not so) shortlist is Carefully Selected, Coko Beach, Longhouse Poet, Darasso, Le Milos, Escaria Ten, Roi Mage, Vaniller, Aint that A Shame, Corach Rambler, Enjoy D’allen, and Gabbys Cross.
Now as mentioned earlier the Grand National is a bit of a lottery, but my job involves the formbook and how can I possibly oppose Corach Rambler now, despite his place at the head of the market? Not only did he come through all the filters with ease, but he won last time out when taking the Ultima Chase at Cheltenham, albeit by a neck after idling in front. The handicapper put him up 10lb for that but he carries none of that added weight here thank to the early closing for this contest, he has never fallen in nine starts over fences (Yes, he did unseat at Ascot in February 2022), and for those expecting a fairytale story at Aintree, if he passes the doctor as hoped he will be Derek Fox’s comeback ride, and may make amends for the narrow defeat of Ahoy Senor at Aintree on Friday afternoon for the Lucinda Russell team.
6.20pm
Even if you had the luckiest of lucky pins I doubt you could guarantee finding the winner here with 20 runners – and 13 of them a winner last time out and five Irish raiders who we all know dominate this division, though they haven’t won this race since 2016. With very little confidence I suspect that run may come to an end if we assume that the penny has finally dropped with Blizzard Of Oz, who got off the mark at Cork with ease and is the mount of Patrick Mullins. He needs to step forward again here, but this is the Willie Mullins yard and as we know, all things are possible.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Flooring Porter each way 3.35pm Aintree
PLUS
Corach Rambler for the Grand National 5.15pm Aintree
(if you feel the need to have a bet).
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