ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
I have always been a big fan of Mick Appleby as many of you will have realised by now, and if you want evidence of his skills as a trainer just look at his record with “cast-offs” from other yards – both impressive and more importantly, highly profitable. He has been plying his trade successfully at a lower level than the “household name” trainers in Newmarket, but the appearance of Big Evs last year moved him into the limelight. A 50,000 Guineas son of Blue Point, he won four of his six starts as a two-year-old including the Group Three Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood and the Group Two Flying Childers at Doncaster before crowning his first season with success in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Santa Anita, making him the top sprinting two-year-old on the planet. Many assumed he was simply a bully of a juvenile and he would come unstuck this season, but that has proved to be an inaccurate assessment after he won the King George Qatar Stakes at Glorious Goodwood the other week. As if that wasn’t enough, he added the first and third in this year’s Molecomb Stakes with 25/1 chance Big Mojo and 11/1 shot Mr Lightside, added a couple of handicaps win at the same meeting with Kitai (16/1) and Shagraan (7/2), and was desperately unlucky when Billyjoh failed to get a clear run when second in the World Pool Handicap and then third in the Stewards’ Cup three days later. At the end of the Festival he was crowned leading trainer, not Aidan O’Brien, not Charlie Appleby, not the Gosdens but Mick, and if this doesn’t see him being sent better horses in the near future, nothing will.
As we continue with the good news, how good is Saffie Osborne in the saddle? Others have suddenly spotted her abilities while I have been singing her praises for some time now, and if you give her the rides she will bring you winners, yet I still get the feeling she gets ignored for being a woman. Recent rides have seen her tactical ability as well as her strength from the saddle, with a rallying ride to win by a neck on Run Boy Run at Newmarket just one of many recent victories, with her ability to time things just right from off the pace perhaps her strongest attribute. Showing a profit of over 52 points if you backed all her rides on four-year-olds and over this season and with 64 winners on board as a write, she is slowly getting the recognition she deserves, and hopefully her career can only go from strength to strength.
Lastly for this week, I find myself more torn than usual by the dreaded Shergar Cup, because there is more to racing than just betting. I fully understand, and even agree with the idea that a card of six handicap where the jockeys are drawn per horse and have, in most cases, never even sat on their mount before race time, does not appeal in the slightest as a betting medium, but it is a bit of a party designed to attract newcomers to the sport. When I head off to Japan or Hong Kong (and elsewhere), there is always an International Jockeys Challenge and no-one there thinks twice about it – this is fairly similar, though in teams (I have never worked out why to be honest). We have four teams (no I will not be betting) of Europe, Great Britain and Ireland, Ladies, and The Rest Of The World, and the fact that many punters haven’t head of some of the jockeys, doesn’t take away from their abilities or the spectacle. This is where I admit I will be cheering on the Rest Of The World team because I am a huge fan of South African star Rachel Vennicker. Trust me, she is the next big name (if she takes up the challenge of eventually permanently riding away from her homeland), and is an absolute breath of fresh air. She is bubbly and good with the media unlike plenty of jockeys I could name, is a natural horsewoman who horses give their all for, but make no mistake, she is dedicated to her career. When I spoke to her in Durban in July she was already looking forward to the Shergar Cup, and talking about the hours she would spend watching videos of other races at the track, leaving no stone unturned to make sure she gives her best. Whether Holkham Bay (1.35pm currently 11/1), Fox Journey (2.10pm 7/1), Bulldog Drummond (3.20pm 40/1) Champagne Prince (3.55pm 25/1), or Carrytheone (4.30pm 9/2) are good enough to give her a winner or two is a different question, but she is classy enough if they are, and I will be having a 10p Lucky 31 or so - just in case.
Tired of reading – listen to our podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/08/09/saffie-appleby-and-that-shergar-cup-thing/
where I chew the fat with Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame
Saturday Racing
3.00pm Haydock
An intriguing Group Three contest over the ten and a half furlongs which seems to revolve around the long absent Anmaat, a class act at his best with seven wins in total, the latest when taking the Group One Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp in May 2023. If that race had been a month ago he would probably be odds-on here, but it was 15 months ago and he has clearly had his problems since to be absent for so long. We have to assume he is at least 90% fit for Owen Burrows to allow him to go back into action, especially if the going remains on the fast side, but there is a risk that he won’t let himself down on the faster ground returning from a foot injury, and I will reluctantly look elsewhere for better value, with his trainer quoited as suggesting he wants good going at least on his first run back. Lord North may not be the force of old, but he remains in training which makes me think the Gosdens feel they can get another win or two out of him. At his best, he was rated 124 which would make him 8lb better than the early favourite, and although expecting him to get back to that level may be unrealistic, at 5/1 I’ll be on him each way in the hope he hits the front two home.
3.05pm Newmarket
The obligatory once a Saturday handicap, and with nine runners at least we have a competitive heat. The draw seem irrelevant with just the nine runners, but the first fact of note is that we have not seen a winner priced longer than 10/1 in the last 10 years. All came home in the first seven on their last outing, and all were officially rated 85-97 inclusive. Just using those few criteria we can get rid of six of the nine, leaving Bobby Bennu, Alzahir, and Fifty Nifty. Of those three, none of the trainers or jockeys have won this before, though Roger Varian has had one place, which makes Bobby Bennu the pick. A lightly raced son of Phoenix Of Spain who has won two of his three starts, he won very easily at Chester before holding on all out at Thirsk to win by a short head. I am rather hoping that effort was largely down to the softer ground which he will hopefully avoid this afternoon, and off a mark of 95 for his handicap debut, there may be more improvement to come.
3.25pm The Curragh
Three Brits travel over for the Phoenix Sprint Stakes, with the James Tate trained Electric Storm, Archie Watson’s Shartash, and James Fanshawe’s Kind Of Blue all in the hunt for the Group Three prize. Moss Tucker is the highest rated according to the handicappers, but his best form is all over five furlongs and he weakened late on over course and distance last time out, admittedly in a better race. Kind Of Blue is only rated a pound behind him when you take into account his three-year-old’s allowance, and he can go well after a length third in the Hackwood Stakes at Newbury, but I am sticking to the Moore factor with Ryan riding Electric Storm. Only beaten a short neck at Deauville last time out, the lightly raced Night Of Thunder filly has won three of her five starts and may have more improvement to come, while Ryan knows this track better than most here and that may yet be the deciding factor.
3.40pm Newmarket
The Sweet Solera Stakes has always been a decent contest for a Group Three with Fallen Angel landing the prize for favourite backers last time out. Liberalised represents the Karl Burke yard this season and she may be better than she looked when running green here last time out, but it is difficult to look past Lake Victoria. With Ryan Moore on duty in Ireland, Sean Levey get the ride on Adian O’Brien’s daughter of Frankel, and I get the feeling she could be top class. Her one run so far was at The Curragh when she quickened up in the style of a really classy filly despite looking as green as grass, and although all out to hold off the fast finishing Red Letter, she lost concentration close home. Sure to learn plenty from that experience, and with the first two pulling close to four lengths clear of the rest in a 15 runner field, and the runner up winning next time out with ease, the form looks above your average maiden, and she can only go on from there.
4.35pm The Curragh
Our second Irish race and the Group One Phoenix Stakes has attracted a small but potentially classy field. The unbeaten Babouche gets 3lb from Whistlejacket which makes life that little bit more interesting, but Aidan O’Brien has won five of the last 10 runnings and looks to have this sown up once more. The son of No Nay Never was rushed off his feet when only fourth in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, but the step up to a sixth furlong at Newmarket in the July Stakes showed his true abilities. Making all that day, he did hang badly which is never a positive, but he still went on to win by close to two lengths from Billboard Star to land the odds of 11/10 favourite. The runner-up was beaten less than two lengths in the Richmond Stakes when fourth at Glorious Goodwood while the third won the Vintage Stakes at the same meeting, giving the form a solid look about it. I don’t personally think he is one of the top O’Brien colts by any stretch of the imagination, but his form is there for all to see and although I doubt I back him at odds-on, I am struggling to oppose him here.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Lake Victoria 3.40pm Newmarket
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