That was an amazing Cheltenham and although I would have liked to have been that bit more successful, out of the three main “single” bets we managed two winners at 7/2 and 14/1 so I am sat here feeling slightly pleased with myself – though I did need last weekend off to recover.
At the bottom of this article there is a link to not one but two podcasts, the first of which is a chatty Cheltenham review (and not just about the horses) and includes a fair old chunk on the embarrassing situation regarding us Brits being given a severe caning by our Irish friends and the possible reasons behind it, so feel free to have a listen (it’s a cure for insomnia if nothing else).
Before that we have to start with the very sad news of the passing of Hamdan Al Maktoum this week, one of the most influential owner/breeders of my lifetime. Part of the Dubai Royal Family, his famous blue and white colours have been on the racetracks here and abroad as long as I can remember, and the truth is, he has been responsible for many of my all-time favourite horses, win or lose over the decades. My second ever trainer interview for my local paper was with John Dunlop at Arundel (who was the kindest man you could ever wish to meet and so generous with his time), and he joined forced with Hamdan for the likes of Erhaab (my first works Derby outing in a previous life), Salsabil, and Shadayid (my first and possibly last successful antepost bet at 33/1 for the following season’s 1000 Guineas) and too many others to mention. I can vividly remember going to Newbury just to back the unraced Nayef having heard about his talent, Nashwan was an all-time great winning the 2000 Guineas, Derby, Coral-Eclipse, and the King George, and who will ever forget Dayjur jumping a shadow at the Breeders Cup in 1990 when looking all set to take the sprint under Willie Carson here in the days when running a European on dirt was seen as madness. I could go on and on but I guess what I am trying to convey is until now I had failed to realise what an influence his horses have had on my racing life to date. As for the future, who knows if any of his children have enough interest in the sport to take over at the top, I do hear one of his daughters is a massive horse racing fan, but for cultural reasons no one knows for sure if she will be the one to take over in the long run.
As you will have read elsewhere, the prize money or lack of it in Britain is shouldering the majority of the blame for our poor showing at Cheltenham, but as my old boss used to say, “don’t being me problems, bring me solutions”. It is all too easy to simply announce loudly that owners are getting a raw deal in comparison to other countries but there is obviously a lot more to it than that in a multi-billion a year sport – someone is keeping all the cream and no-one will admit it is them! As things stand the industry is too fragmented with the racecourses, the owners, the breeders, the trainers, the bookmakers et al all keeping their cards very close to their chests. The fact is, none of us like intrusion in to our personal finances and rightly so, but as the idea of a tote monopoly like France is out of the question legally, we need to find other solutions. I feel almost treacherous to suggest it (and fully expect to be shot down in flames), but could we or should we remove the non-profitable racecourses for start and change some of the others to all-weather or even dirt? My reasoning there is that we need so many courses for so much racing, otherwise the turf surfaces simply can’t cope, but an all-weather surface can be raced on far more frequently and reduce the need for so many tracks. Those that survive the “cull” will then have a far better chance of staying afloat (for example, Sandown have 19 race meetings in 2021, and that must make paying the annual overheads a nightmare, though we all know they “top up” with conferences weddings etc on non race days), and bring that bit more stability to the sport. The bean counters could do the math but, for example, the BHA could ask for 40 courses to put their names forward to continue under my suggested rule set, but (this is the good bit), they then have to guarantee a realistic minimum prize pot per race. They can achieve this via their own cost savings on the one hand, increased revenue from added meetings on the other, and perhaps more realistic race sponsorship now that particular pie doesn’t have to be shared out quite so widely. Not a perfect solution I agree, but far less radical than others I have come up with I assure you.
On to the racing this weekend – which may or may not be what you are really after!
Saturday
Kempton 1.45
Not the most competitive race to start off with but there is a lot to like about the chances of Global Giant with the exception of his price. Trained in Newmarket by the Gosden’s, he was last seen in the Saudi Cup when beaten a long way in the World’s richest race behind stable companion Mishriff. His prior form in Listed and Group Three company entitles him to find this a whole lot easier and he obviously has a fitness advantage over some, but at a fraction of odds on he can run without the added weight of my money today. If you feel the need to have a small bet then I suggest Stormy Antarctic looks the value alternative, having been rated superior to the jolly on his last race, and returning from a wind operation and with a first time tongue tie. He has been off since coming home eighth on horrendous ground at Newmarket last October but has gone well and won fresh in the past and certainly shouldn’t be a 5/1 shot in this sort of field, though we do have to take his wellbeing and race fitness on trust as well as his ability to handle the surface on his all-weather debut at the age of eight.
Doncaster 2.00pm
Although I can’t be certain of the winner I do like the look of this race which sees some pretty decent sorts all set to turn out at Doncaster for our first Saturday of the new flat turf season. Favourite Bounce The Blues comes out best at the weights on official ratings and seems sure to go well though he needs to find a little more in my eyes with both Space Traveller and Father Of Jazz who would be my two against the field. The first named will relish this Listed company on his return having competed successfully in far better races including a win in the Boomerang Stakes at Leopardstown in September 2019. All was not well last season as he was restricted to just the one start when sixth to Circus Maximus at Royal Ascot but he was less than five lengths off the winner, and that was in the Group One Queen Anne Stakes, light years ahead of these rivals. Lightly raced for a five-year-old he won on his debut back in 2018 but I am ever so slightly wary of whether or not he is over whatever was ailing him last season and for that reason will have a little each way on Father Of Jazz instead. Trainer Roger Varian certainly knows the sort needed to take this having won it in 2016 with Belardo, 2018 with Zabeel Prince, and in 2019 with Sharja Bridge, with the mid named little more than a very good handicapper who then went on to Group One glory. Although better known for his exploits on the all-weather recently (he let me down last time when third to Forest Of Dean in the Winter Derby), he finished second on turf on his debut when with Michael Bell to the far more experienced Mambo Nights, and as a son of Kingman out of Bark (by Galileo), there is every reason to think he can be even better on the grass.
Doncaster 3.10pm
For reasons I have never really worked out I always chuck a handicap or two in each week (possibly so you can laugh at my inadequacies), but with the Lincoln this afternoon how can I resist. The first big race of the new season as far as bookmakers are concerned at least, we have the maximum field of 22 declared so we should be in for a right old cavalry charge, so time to look at the statistics which work occasionally – and let me down more often than not. The draw was my first port of call but the results suggest either side can win and it is far more important where the pace is, but we have to second guess that at this stage which is not a good thing. Looking at the last 23 runnings, only one winner has carried more than nine stone five so if that holds up, we can get rid of the top six which is at least a starting point. Only the solitary winner over the age of six prunes two more out (slow work this but we have to start somewhere), while there hasn’t been a winner who hasn’t raced either within the last fifteen days – or has been off for over 120 days, which weeds out another few and voila – all I am left with is half the field. Twenty-one of the twenty-three have come from the first dozen in the betting, and I finalise at a shortlist of seven – Haqeeqy, Brunch, King Ottaker, Brentford Hope, Danyah, Man Of The Night, and Ascension (using current odds sadly), and if the winner comes out of there, job done. Naturally, I have to decide on one of them, and my last filter as always is their official ratings – and that leads me to Danyah. No one can argue how great it would be to see the Hamdan colours carried to success a few times this weekend, and as he only has five pounds more today than his last success, he will do for me though at 12/1, each way is the obvious call.
Doncaster 3.45pm
Only one of the eighteen three year olds to try to win this has succeeded despite the massive weight allowance and if that holds up then second favourite Just Frank is up against it leaving the way clear for the evergreen Brando. Now a veteran in my eyes at the age of nine, he has won well over a million pounds of prize money so far and look certain to add to that here as they pay all the way down to sixth. He missed the break on his one and only run here so the course is a slight question mark, but if he gets away with the rest of them he could still prove too good for the youngsters this afternoon. He has won or gone close after long breaks numerous times in the past, and although his race fitness is an unknown quantity, all the form points to his tenth career success here with Emeraaty Anna taken to be the one to chase him home following a wind operation.
Newbury 3.25pm
One more in England on Saturday and a race and a decent looking novice hurdle for mares – shame it’s a handicap. Having already bored you to death with the earlier handicap this time we will go with gut feeling and the form book instead of stats for a change as that is more my “style”, though any way that finds a winner is the right way race on race of course. Using recent form could well be an issue in itself with the going predicted to be Good by the off time, very different to the ground most have been racing on all winter. Take favourite Rose Of Arcadia, for example – she won her point to point, bumper, and maiden hurdle on heavy ground – so will she or won’t she be then same horse on this far quicker surface? By Arcadia, a look back at his progeny stats suggests that the going would be little more than an excuse if she comes home well beaten, but do you want to take the 9/2 about a horse with one win over hurdles who should act on the surface – if so, best of luck to you. Marada, on the other hand, ticks and awful lot more boxes for me than the jolly. Two of her three wins have been on this ground (the other was on good to soft), and as a daughter of Martaline (and a half-sister to Tarada and Royal Claret), there is every reason to believe she will be even better stepped up to this trip for the first time. She does have a lot of weight off a mark of 131 but the last four winners have all carried eleven stone or more so that doesn’t put me off, and at 8/1 she looks a solid each way shout despite what appears to be a big step up in class.
Meydan on Dubai World Cup Night – a look at the card in brief.
We could go through every race if we had to, but that is a lot of work and it seems more sensible to focus on anything worth a second look, plus of course the European challengers.
12.15pm – Jane Chapple-Hyam has each way chances via Ambassadorial at a price here as does Dubai Mirage for Saeed Bin Suroor on his home patch, but for me this is a not bet race as it is hard to gauge the form in these International events, and Doug Watson’s Burj Nahaar winner Midnight Sands looks a shrewd import on his return from America and could prove hard to beat – a no bet race for me.
12.50pm – Charlie Appleby, Mark Johnston, Andrew Balding, Saeed Bin Suroor (three runners), Ed Dunlop, Ralph Rohne, Ismail Mohammed, and Jamie Osborne all have runners here so we have an odds on chance of taking home the spoils (if you count Saeed as Newmarket based, of course). Too complicated for my little brain but Walderbe is massively overpriced if he gets this easy two miles at the first attempt, and if I can top the 40/1 available with the bookies via the exchanges I might well have a couple of pennies each way at that price. He is only rated two pounds inferior to favourite Secret Advisor (2/1) so you can hopefully see my logic, though my bet won’t be to any huge stakes.
1.30pm – Frankie Dettori seems pretty confident that Equilateral will get the sixth furlong at this track though he will have his work cut out to cope with hot favourite Space Blues as the five year old son of Dubawi looks for his sixth straight win. Although the drop back in trip for him has to be of some concern, he shows plenty of early speed over a furlong further and ought to be able to cope and add yet another World Cup winner to the Godolphin roster. The field is once again European dominated (no need to list them all here), with Extravagant Kid (16/1) looking each way value under Ryan Moore. but if they go off as fast as I expect, Space Blues ought to be good enough to pick them all off late on.
2.05pm – How a Group Two over nine and a half furlongs on dirt can be called a Derby is beyond my old fashioned brain, but the UAE Derby it is, and we have representation from Charlie Appleby, Saeed Bin Suroor, and John Gosden to at least consider. Much as I would love Panadol to win this (after all, he owes us nothing after his last win), he needs to improve again if he wants to better Japanese raider France Go De Ina who has looked the part with two successive wins at Hanshin. He could well be a class apart from these in the long term and is the one I will be on, though I am wary of both Panadol and Doug Watson’s Mnasek who was so impressive in the UAE Oaks and won’t be far away with her fillies’ allowance.
2.40pm – Newmarket trainer Ismail Mohammed has the sole European entry here but at 12/1 his odds of success look about right to me. Matera Sky was only caught close home in Saudi last time out and may well strip a bit fitter this afternoon on a day when I fully expect the Japanese to do well but at the same weights I cannot see why he is trading shorter than his conqueror Copano Kicking who by definition ought to be the short of the pair. The odds differential is almost certainly down to the draw, but as the selection prefers to pounce late anyway, I am not as convinced as some that will be an issue and at 5/1 he will be my suggestion. Adrie De Vries rides this track as well as anyone so expect a decent effort from Al Tariq, while Steve Asmussen’s Jalen Journey intrigues after winning an Oaklawn claimer last time out and ought to be outclassed – so why have they sent him all this way if that is as good as he is?
3.30pm – Plenty of European involvement in the Dubai Turf with hot favourite Lord North the most likely winner assuming the Gosden’s have him fit enough for his first outing since a solid fourth to Tarnawa in the Breeders Cup in November last year. He has seven pounds or more in hand of all of these on official ratings and has more than enough speed to cope with the drop back to nine furlongs, while Frankie Dettori is riding as well as ever and just loves it in Dubai. The lack of a recent start and the drop in trip does make this a no bet race personally but good luck to the Gosdens as well as Charlie Appleby, David O’Meara, Marco Botti, Saeed Bin Suroor, and Simon Crisford who all have runners here this afternoon.
4.10pm – Perhaps the race of the meeting for me as we see a shoot-out between the likes of Saudi Cup winner Mishriff, Hong Kong Vase winner Mogul, multiple Grade One winner Channel Maker, and top Japanese mare Chrono Genesis, the winner of the Arima Kinen last time out and beaten less than a length by Almond Eye when third in the Tenno Sho in November. Make no mistake that is red hot form in any language and she ought to win this with her head in her chest if repeating those efforts, though do keep an eye out for Walton Street who is going from strength to strength at the age of seven and carries the Godolphin first colours in a race they have won in each of the last three runnings with Jack Hobbs, Hawkbill, and Old Persian.
4.50pm – Just the £5,255,474 for the winner of the last race on the card, the Dubai World Cup, one of the richest races staged on the planet. Godolphin have won five of the last nine running, the Americans three and the Japanese just the once, but no great shocks there with the top horses sent here for the cash and the boys in blue always eager to keep the trophy at home. The most likely winner for 2021 fits two of those stats being American trained AND owned by Godolphin, and it is pretty hard to see far past Mystic Guide if he handles the surface which is the great unknown. In a covid hit year we aren’t really seeing any true superstars take their place and on a normal year I doubt he could be fancied, but his second to Happy Saver in the Gold Cup at Belmont is just about the stand-out form line here I am afraid to say. Chuwa Wizard needs to bounce back from a disappointing run in Saudi but isn’t without a chance if he does, while someone who follows breeding more than me needs to explain how Gifts Of Gold (by Invincible Spirit who only ever won over six furlongs out of a Refuse To Bend (most wins at a mile or less) mare took the mile and seven furlong handicap at Riyadh last time out before dropping back to ten furlongs here for Saeed bin Suroor with Christophe Soumillon in then saddle. All in all, I cannot pretend I am not a touch disappointed by the line-up this year, but something has to win it with Mystic Guide perhaps the likeliest to do so.
Sunday
Naas 3.25pm
So much racing this weekend that I am running out of time and brain power so short and sweet for the Sunday selections. I guess someone will get upset if I call this a race for horses who may have got to the top, but that is what it appears to me looking at the final field. Aiden O’Brien has started the season off well enough as you would expect, and there will be plenty of support for Broome, who has been pretty competitive in far better races with a solid fourth in the Epsom Derby 2019 and a fourth again, this time to the mighty Ghaiyyath at Newmarket his stand outs to me. Dropped in to this class he ought to prove far too classy for these over a trip I think brings out his best, though I am worried about the lightly raced Brogue who has his first run since a gelding operation today and could be the dark horse in this field.
Naas 4.00pm
Three horses stand out here, all-weather winner Tartlette who arrives with an obvious fitness edge in the search for her hat-trick, Fantasy Lady who is best in on the ratings with her three-year-old allowance (by a massive twelve pounds), and unknow quantity Eylara who is the one I will be on. Trained by Dermot Weld for HH Aga Khan, the daughter of Gleneagles was very easy to back at 12/1 when second on her debut but showed the benefit of that education when taking a Leopardstown maiden very easily. Bred to be far better with age she still holds Irish 1000 Guineas and Oaks entries and although perhaps shy of that standard, ought to win this before taking on better horses in the very near future.
Limerick 4.20pm
I really shouldn’t find a five runner race exciting but I quite like the look of this in what I see as a two horse race, as do the bookmakers. Chatham Street Lad is clearly very decent with impressive wins over fences at Ballinrobe, Cork, and Cheltenham and a rock solid fourth to Chantry House in the Marsh Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham last week. I am surprised they have gone back to the well quite this quickly but trainer Michael Winters must be confident he is still at his peak, or he wouldn’t be sending him here. His form makes him the clear choice in this field, but if he has an off day then the intriguing Full Time Score could take advantage. The winner of both starts over fences for Henry De Bromhead who can do no wrong, he side-stepped Cheltenham which may yet prove advantageous, and with Rachel Blackmore in the saddle all things are possible. A confirmed front runner, both horses named are stepping up to three miles plus for the first time, and at the odds on offer I will take a risk on the less exposed of the pair who may have the better stamina over this trip.
Limerick 5.30pm
Not everyone’s cup of tea I agree but this bumper is Listed class and deserves a passing comment at the very least. Four of the ten runners have never seen a racecourse in public before so they have to be marked down as unknow quantities, though none appear to have been backed in the very early markets so perhaps they are best ignored for now. Boothen Boy would be interesting on any other day and having been sent off a 10/1 shot before coming home second on his debut, seems sure to improve for the experience and ought to be a player again this afternoon. I cannot easily overlook him but thanks to the race conditions (a seven pounds mares’ allowance yet only a four pound winning penalty), the Willie Mullins trained Belle Metal actually gets weight from the Denise Foster gelding. The suggestion made all the running over this trip at Naas before pulling clear for an easy twelve lengths success and the Mullins team have, as usual, done all the necessary research to find her an opportunity to grab some black type at just the second time of asking – impressive work.
Carlisle 5.15pm
I always like to try and share my write ups around the Country, though I am not sure why when we can’t attend in person, so I felt morally obliged to throw one in from Carlisle. Sadly, as you all know by now, handicaps are not my area of expertise, but I’ll give it a go to round off the weekend. To make life that little bit easier, this is the first running so no historical data to go on (or confuse me), so where do we start? Personally, I have looked at their current marks and then compared them to ones they have scored or placed second off before), and that means that Racing Pulse is thrown in - if you include a win from 2016 which sadly seems wishful thinking! Sadly, even I am not quite that naïve and we need to look at more recent form, and that leads me to either Damiens Dilemma (too old at thirteen?), or Well Smitten who will be my each way choice to pennies. Trained by Sam England, the nine year old has regularly won or placed off this sort of mark in recent years, and was only beaten a neck off two pounds lower at Newcastle earlier in the month. He clouted a fence last time out that ended his chances at Sedgefield in a race I am willing to forgive but could yet get involved here with a clear round – though the quality of this field is clearly reflected by a high weight for him here considering he is leaping up from a Class Four to a Class Two event (in name only).
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Sean’s Suggestions:
Chrono Genesis 4.10pm Meydan Saturday
Broome 3.25pm Naas Sunday
Eylara 4.00pm Naas Sunday
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