I am on the countdown to both Cheltenham and a well-deserved holiday now so excuse any frivolity, though we can at least start off with the bittersweet news that jockey Tom Scudamore suddenly decided to call it a day and retire from the saddle. It is hard to put into words how old it makes me feel to see him retire when I remember interviewing his Dad (Peter) when he was still riding in the dim and distant beginnings of my journalistic journey. I am delighted to see him quit in one piece, though I will miss him from the racetracks for his honesty both in and out of the saddle. Only he knows what he wants the future to hold, but is more articulate than most and I suspect he would be warmly welcomed by various media outlets, and as long as he doesn’t go after any of my jobs, I can but wish him the best of luck.
More good news followed with Shishkin bouncing back to something near to his best when stepped up in trip at Ascot last Saturday. He did win by 16 lengths from Pic D’Orhy, who had won his three previous starts, and although the time was exceptional compared to other races on the day, 11/8 for the Ryanair seems a huge knee-jerk reaction on one run, and will be waiting until raceday before deciding to back him – or not. That said. I was amused to go back over the Racing Post articles explain why he could not possibly win last week, though you only had to see then relief on Nicky Henderson’s face to see just how much of a mammoth task it must have been to get him back to his peak.
As alluded to earlier I’m off to Egypt in early March (to see if I can find anything older than me), so I have already started prepping my Cheltenham articles which will be written from a boat on the Nile. Naturally I will be cross referring to my Cheltenham Festival Special before drawing any conclusions (what do you mean you haven’t bought it – are you insane?), but it did get me thinking that this may not be the most exciting Cheltenham for punters despite the high class in opposition. Considering there is less than a month to go the bookmakers are hardly enticing us in looking at the early prices, with the 28 races equally split over the four days seeing no less than 16 of the races with a favourite priced at 3/1 or shorter, and that’s three weeks or so away with the possibility of injuries or bad scopes possibly ruling some out. Remembering that these are effectively the World Championships for National Hunt (makes me sound American – oops), if you backed the four shortest priced at the time of writing (4/11 Constitution Hill Champion Hurdle, 11/10 Delta Work Cross Country Chase, 11/8 Mighty Potter Turners Novice Chase, and 11/8 Shishkin for the Ryanair), they only add up to a 15/1 accumulator and hands up who would fall over in shock if one or more of those still let you down. My point is, good as the horses all are (no doubt about that), I am feeling a betting anti-climax and may even find myself (horror of horrors), only betting in the handicaps in the search for a spot of value.
On to the racing:
Saturday
Lingfield 1.30pm
A Listed contest on the all-weather to start our day with, and looking at the draw statistics it may be better to focus on those drawn in the lower half, though I am less convinced than some that is an absolute necessity. Tone The Barone heads the early market as expected after the six-year-old won at Wolverhampton last time out, where he finished two and a half lengths ahead of Alligator Alley who reopposes here. In theory it should be close between them today with the O’Meara gelding 7lb better off this afternoon, and as he comes out of a stall five numbers lower than his market rival, he may be able to gain his revenge if he is back to his best.
Kempton 1.50pm
Five winning favourites in a row here suggest the market gets things pretty accurate, and in this case that points us towards the Milton Harris trained Scriptwriter, the winner of his first two starts over hurdles at Sedgefield and Cheltenham which he followed with a win on the Flat at Wolverhampton and a second to Comfort Zone back at Cheltenham last month. Interestingly, he was beaten three-quarters of a length by Joseph O’Brien’s Comfort Zone that day and he seems happy to take on the jolly here with Nusret, and should know exactly where he stands. A winner at Punchestown on his hurdling bow, he has since come home third to lively Cheltenham Festival contenders Lossiemouth (at Leopardstown) and Blood Destiny (at Fairyhouse), but the really scary thing is, if he wins here this afternoon, that merely proves just how far ahead the Irish novices are.
Lingfield 2.05pm
It may be February but the Group Three Winter Derby has certainly attracted a pretty classy field, headed by the Gosden’s Lord North, already the winner of close to £4 million in win and place prize money, and officially rated 13lb or more superior to all of his rivals. He is already trading at a shade of odds-on, but if he is ready to roll after over seven months off the track, he is difficult to oppose. Second here last year when sent off the 11/8 favourite, that has to be of some concern to his many fans, and at the age of seven he may take a little bit more work to get him spot-on, but he does go well fresh if you take a look back at his record over the years, and is rated at least 12lb superior to all of these rivals. Those looking for an each-way alternative may be interested in recent Bahrain winner Lucander, officially the second best horse at the weights according to the handicapper yet trading at a pretty generous 14/1 for his return to British soil.
Kempton 2.25pm
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won four of the last six runnings of this contest including last season with Pic D’Orhy, and he will be represented by Solo this season, second to Balco Coastal at Kempton last time out, and having his first start since wind surgery here. He needs to find a few pounds if he wants to bother Boothill here, despite Harry Fry’s gelding letting his supporters down at odds-on last time out. His earlier second to Jonbon at Sandown still stands out to me in this field, though to be fair he may not be quite as good as we all once hoped.
Newcastle 3.25pm
Its statistics time once again (zzzz), and although not perfect (as seen last week with a third and a fifth), the horses shortlisted aren’t rarely far away. Using the last 21 runnings I note: No winners priced bigger than 28/1 (100%), no six-year-old winner (100%), no winner older than 11 (100%), no winner who completed their last race and didn’t come home in the first seven (100%), no winner carrying more than 11 stone 12 (100%), no winner rated lower than 110 (100%), no winner rated higher than 140 (100%), and no winner who hasn’t raced in the last 90 days (100%). Using those facts we can in theory remove four horses, but that still leaves us with a list of 11 to go through. Only one winner had not raced in the last 60 days (95%), only one was officially rated less than 121 (95%), only two completed and came home outside the front four last time out (90%), only two were aged older than 10 (90%), and only two were aged younger than eight (90%), only two had raced more than six times this season (90%), and only two were outside of the first nine in the betting (90%). If we use those as well (I’d rather not but we need to filter further), and we end up with just the four horses left. Next stop I like to look at the trainer and jockey form but none have won this more than once so that’s out of the window, and it’s now all about the handicap ratings. Of the four remaining, only Bushpark has ever won off his current mark or higher, and although I would be happier were his stable in better form, the 9/1 at the time of writing is big enough to suggest him as my each way option on the day.
Kempton 3.40pm
We haven’t seen a winning favourite here since back in 2016, but neither have we seen a winner priced bigger than 6/1 in the same period – so perhaps the second favourite is the sensible place to start? That would currently be Rubaud who could be a different beast sporting a hood for the first time, but his 10th in the Betfair Hurdle still leaves him with something to find in my eyes and I will be going for an even riskier option. Postmark will have to hit the first two home to land the place bets of my each way punt but Milton Harris thinks a lot of the son of Postponed who won despite making plenty of errors at Newbury which I am hoping he can learn from. He gets plenty of weight from his rivals today which is an added bonus and although no good thing, 20/1 or so is just a bit too tempting for me.
Sunday
Fontwell 2.30pm
Fontwell put on the best card this afternoon, and it appears that local trainer Gary Moore is pretty sweet on the chances of Goshen for the National Spirit Hurdle at 2.30pm. It seems fair to describe him as a bit of an enigma, super talented on his day, but not guaranteed to reproduce his best form with fences clearly not his forte with a last of three at Lingfield at the end of last month. He returns to hurdles here which is a positive in my eyes, and as he has been working well in recent weeks nothing less than an easy victory will be deemed good enough now despite the strength of the opposition.
Sean’s Suggestions
Goshen 2.30pm Fontwell Sunday
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