Like a stuck record the thorny issues of small fields rears its ugly head once again this week after Leicester put on a six-race card with a total of 30 runners, and not a single contest where us each way punters could be paid out for third place. I am a great one for coming up with obscure solutions (none of which have ever been implemented so far, by the way), and I was wondering if the tracks should have to reduce admission prices if they fail to hit a number of horses per race on each card (perhaps as an average)? That may not be ideal but there is a school of thought that the racecourses make more money than any other individual part of the racing set up, and if that is the case it may act as a nudge to do more to increase prize money or anything else needed to get field sizes back up again.
Moving on and we have a new announcement that in layman’s terms means the BHA have more control over racing than they have in recent years. I see that as a positive along with the fact that those hiding in their ivory towers continue to acknowledge that things have got change for the good of the sport, but one again I have to ask the same question – why is there no representation on behalf of punters (ditto bookmakers by the way)? I do accept that most betting shop regulars (do they still exist) have never heard of the Horserace Bettors Forum, but like it or not we are the recognised body representing the rank and file and ought to at least have a seat at the table, even with a listening brief. I often wonder how much time we waste (and we are all unpaid volunteers by the way) trying to solve issues when we are not aware of all the facts, and invitations to these meetings may well see us change our mind and focus our valuable efforts elsewhere.
Lastly, I had a call from the Racing Post this week for an HBF quote about hotel prices – which I knew nothing about. Apparently they looked into a 3* hotel (no names but not exactly the Hilton) which in February would be £280 for three nights – head to March and the Cheltenham Festival and the same room is something like £3,800! I am quite aware of the rules of supply and demand and that if you have 50 rooms and 500 people wanting them you can boost the price, but that seems over the top to me and it got me thinking. I wonder if Cheltenham (or The Jockey Club) have ever considered renting out (or buying) a warehouse to turn in to accommodation of some kind and then let them out at a sensible rate to a) keep punters happy and b) make some profit that they can then feed back in to racing? Just an idea, and a bit left field I suppose, but have a look yourself on your website of choice and you will soon see what I mean! As one example the Holiday Inn Express is £3925 for five nights on Festival week but only £540 a week earlier – the mind boggles and all I can add is if you are thinking of going in 2024, I suggest you look at hotel prices before buying your tickets to the races!
All the above and more is available on our podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2022/11/18/last-week-a-45-1-double-nailed-this-week/
On to the racing:
Saturday
Haydock 12.10pm
A fascinating race to start our day with five of the six runners a winner last time out, and whoever wins this will know they have been in a race. Of all the winners here I was most taken by the performance of winning chaser Sizing Pottsie on his first start for David Pipe after leaving the Jessica Harrington yard in Ireland. I suspect the intention was to win a small pot before sending him back over the larger obstacles, but he routed the opposition by an easy 18 lengths and connections seem to feel he can add to that here before resuming his old career. Snake Roll and Tahmuras may well take them along from the off, but hopefully that sets things up for my selection to pick them up near the last to go clear and land the spoils.
Huntingdon 12.48pm
Another disappointing field to work with and just the four runners vying for the prize, and hopefully they will be led home by Wynn House who proved her wellbeing with victory over hurdles at Wincanton recently, on her first start since April. We know she will be race fit now unlike Volkovka, Fergal O’Brien’s winning hurdler who hasn’t been seen since March and is entitled to improve for whatever she does this afternoon. None of these have ever jumped a fence in public so whoever you back comes with risks attached, but my suggestion has more going for her than the rest of the field, and that is good enough for me.
Haydock 1.50pm
As I write Hitman is expected to head here as opposed to his alternative option at Ascot and if that is the case, then he seems by far the likeliest winner. On official ratings he has 10lb or more in hand on all of his rivals here, which when added to the good form of the Paul Nicholls stable, a recent head second at Aintree in late October, and the fact that I doubt we have seen the best of him over fences just yet, and he ought to win – though I suspect his price will be too skinny to make it worth a bet.
Ascot 2.05pm
Five runners for £40,000 or so makes a mockery of the poor prize money argument, and if Hitman head to Haydock as expected, the five becomes a four. Assuming the Nicholls beast is conspicuous by his absence, my money would be on L’Homme Presse, returning to action after a brilliant season that saw five wins from his first six starts over fences, rounded off by a third to Gold Cup hope Ahoy Senor at Aintree. He is the only C&D winner in the field, goes well fresh, and is the class act here, though I won’t be backing him today for one reason alone – the Venetia Williams horses are yet to fire on all cylinders and I won’t be taking a short price for that reason.
Haydock 2.25pm
An interesting race for my obligatory once a week handicap and one that has seen winners priced from 4/1 to 16/1 in the last 10 years - and not a single winning favourite. With weights ranging from 10 stone seven to 11 stone 12 we learn nothing there either, ages are five to nine, and all in all it is a bit of a condundrum! David Pipe is the only trainer to have won this more than once in the last decade with Gevrey Chambertin in 2013 and main fact in 2020 which suggests we can expect a big run from Brinkley on his seasonal return, but I will be backing Wholestone each way at an even bigger price. Nigel Twiston-Davies reports his 11 year old to be in rude health ahead of his second start of the season, and although he hasn’t won a race since February, that was here over course and distance. He may not be the force of old as he heads toward retirement, bur he has won off far higher marks in the past, and ran well enough when second at Carlisle over an inadequate trip to suggest he may have at least one more big run in him.
Ascot 2.40pm
On a day when we are spending more time talking than we are betting, this race has to be included as we hope to see the return to action of Constitution Hill. Trainer Nicky Henderson sees the son of Blue Bresil as potentially the best horse he has ever trained, and that is high praise indeed from a multiple Champion trainer. Everyone is looking forward to his clash with Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle in March, and he will need to win here and do so impressively to keep that dream alive, but he won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at this year’s Cheltenham festival by 22 lengths and I can see zero reason to even think of opposing him here.
Haydock 3.00pm
When you see a horse of the class of Frodon trading at 33/1 you just know this is a high-class contest, but one again we have a stupidly priced favourite – it is just going to be one of those weekends. A Plus Tard won the Cheltenham Gold Cup last March by 15 lengths when running on strongly up the hill, and if he is in the same form then obviously this is his for the taking. He currently trades at 4/7 which is not a price I fancy one little bit, and although I accept he is by far the likeiest winner, I’ll be having a quid on Frodon at that price in a sport that throws up surprises now and again.
Ascot 3.50pm
With so many short prices this weekend I have had to look elsewhere for a bet worth having and I quite like the forecast price about Gary Moore’s Odin’s Quest in the Ascot bumper at 3.50pm. The tissue suggests that either Nicky Henderson’s Immortal or Paul Nicholls’ Thames Water are the ones to be on, but neither have seen a racecourse yet, and the Henderson beast is a big horse who may do a lot better over time, though I admit Nicky thinks a lot of him. He could go well but the selection has only raced the once when hacking up at Huntingdon in January and although I am wary of any horse wearing a hood (we used to call headgear the badge of shame!), he has the form in the book to suggest he can go well, and at a double figure price I will be on him each way this afternoon.
Wolverhampton 7.30pm
With William Buick riding an odds-on shot at Lingfield for Charlie Appleby, James Doyle gets to ride a pair of New Approach colts at Wolverhampton tonight for the in-form stable, and it was a tough choice which one to be on. Both are bred to have plenty of stamina, but Isle Of Jura is three months older which is enough to lean me in his favour. A full-brother to Cascadian who won a Group One at Randwick Australia in April for Godolphin, he has presumably been slow to come to hand hence this belated debut, but he looks the part on paper and may get the better of the more experienced Bohemian Breeze who will hopefully help us to get a better price.
Sean’s Suggestions
None this week, too many odds-on shots for my liking and nothing else stands out
Comments