Plenty to talk about this week starting with the low-quality stuff we are being served up in the last seven days or so. I accept the ground is faster than many would like (global warming – who knows?) but it makes it incredibly difficult for people like me to combine the age-old rules of winners v value. Small fields invariably mean short -priced favourites, and no chance of a sensible each-way alternative, and racing really needs to sort itself out and do something about it. Whether that is incentivising courses with extra money for races of 8 or more runners, or punishing them for less is up to the powers that be, but I am less than convinced they are aware that daily punters will simply switch to other sports if necessary, with no guarantee they will ever return.
Meanwhile, it seems following the market is a better way of finding the winners, with the David Pipe trained Thanksforthehelp being backed off the boards at Chepstow last Saturday before winning as he pleased at odds of 9/2. I have zero issue with the horse winning, which was presumably down to a recent wind operation, nor do I begrudge those who got on bright and early (Ok, maybe a little), but I do have to wonder why the Stewards didn’t even ask a question. His previous run had seen him beaten seven lengths at Wetherby in a lesser contest off the same mark, and I do feel the question should have been asked despite already second-guessing the answer, with punters once again being ignored. Stepping outside of reality for a second, you have to assume that some connected to the yard knew he had improved considerably, and if not, where did the money come from? If this was the Stock Market would that not be considered insider trading (having information not available to the general public) I wonder – something racing could potentially think about over the months and years ahead?
With my moaning out the way (for now) I feel like looking ahead and have decided, even at this early stage, to look for the winners of all the Championship races at Cheltenham – though I reserve the right to change my mind come race day (watch this space).
Tuesday sees the Champion Hurdle and can anything beat Constitution Hill barring a tumble? I am yet to join the “he is the best ever” club but he certainly has the potential to prove me wrong and I cannot bet against him. My only nagging doubt is a relative lack of experience after just the five career starts, and the Mullins team will surely look to get him under pressure sooner rather than later in the hope he makes a mistake or two, but that seems the only way he can lose as he looks for a place among the all-time greats, with I Like To Move it my idea of an each-way alternative though he ought to be racing for third place at best.
On Wednesday we move on to the Queen Mother Champion Chase and this is nowhere near as clear cut. Paul Nicholls seemed pretty sweet on the place chances of Greaneteen for this one and at 33/1 I won’t put anyone off a shilling each way, but as I have to try to name the winner, it’s Energumene for me. Only Willie Mullins will know how cooked he was last time out when a disappointing third at Cheltenham, but if you are brave enough to ignore that run, his overall form stands out. He easily won the race last year having taken his first five starts over fences, and with his only other defeat a length second to Shishkin at Ascot, he seems the likeliest winner here – again with a clear round.
Thursday means the Stayers Hurdle and this is a real quandary. Flooring Porter had a setback earlier in the season and it was touch and go whether he even made the race, but he won this in 2021 and 2022 and if he is back to that level, he is great value at the current 7/1. Blazing Khal has done nothing wrong but the was off for over a year before winning at Navan and is another who has clearly had his issues, while Paisley Park won this in 2019 and is capable of springing a surprise even at the age of 11 – if he is in one of his going moods.
On Friday we round thigs off with the 99th Cheltenham Gold Cup and another competitive renewal. The Irish have won the last four renewal and dominate the market again with favourite Galopin Des Champs heading the market. A Plus Tard won this last year and is not to be overlooked, while Hewick could also have some say despite his price. Taking a bigger risk for a change, and Ahoy Senor was back to his best when winning here in January and f he is in the same mood, he may run them all in to the ground. Sadly he can make errors which he can’t afford here, but if not, he will give us a good run for our money at 14/1.
Lastly, I was asked elsewhere to come up with my idea of my bet of the meeting – thanks a lot whoever came up with that idea! By definition it isn’t easy (other than saying Constitution Hill at odds of 4/11), but I did get the feeling that Paul Nicholls was keen on the chances of Thyme White in the Grand Annual Chase on Foxhunters on Wednesday afternoon. He goes best fresh and has been deliberately kept back for this contest, and at 25/1 an each way bet may pay rich rewards.
Bored of racing – listen to my thoughts and those of Ron Robinson at Post Racing on the free podcast here Plenty to talk about this week starting with the low-quality stuff we are being served up in the last seven days or so. I accept the ground is faster than many would like (global warming – who knows?) but it makes it incredibly difficult for people like me to combine the age-old rules of winners v value. Small fields invariably mean short -priced favourites, and no chance of a sensible each-way alternative, and racing really needs to sort itself out and do something about it. Whether that is incentivising courses with extra money for races of 8 or more runners, or punishing them for less is up to the powers that be, but I am less than convinced they are aware that daily punters will simply switch to other sports if necessary, with no guarantee they will ever return.
Meanwhile, it seems following the market is a better way of finding the winners, with the David Pipe trained Thanksforthehelp being backed off the boards at Chepstow last Saturday before winning as he pleased at odds of 9/2. I have zero issue with the horse winning, which was presumably down to a recent wind operation, nor do I begrudge those who got on bright and early (Ok, maybe a little), but I do have to wonder why the Stewards didn’t even ask a question. His previous run had seen him beaten seven lengths at Wetherby in a lesser contest off the same mark, and I do feel the question should have been asked despite already second-guessing the answer, with punters once again being ignored. Stepping outside of reality for a second, you have to assume that some connected to the yard knew he had improved considerably, and if not, where did the money come from? If this was the Stock Market would that not be considered insider trading (having information not available to the general public) I wonder – something racing could potentially think about over the months and years ahead?
With my moaning out the way (for now) I feel like looking ahead and have decided, even at this early stage, to look for the winners of all the Championship races at Cheltenham – though I reserve the right to change my mind come race day (watch this space).
Tuesday sees the Champion Hurdle and can anything beat Constitution Hill barring a tumble? I am yet to join the “he is the best ever” club but he certainly has the potential to prove me wrong and I cannot bet against him. My only nagging doubt is a relative lack of experience after just the five career starts, and the Mullins team will surely look to get him under pressure sooner rather than later in the hope he makes a mistake or two, but that seems the only way he can lose as he looks for a place among the all-time greats, with I Like To Move it my idea of an each-way alternative though he ought to be racing for third place at best.
On Wednesday we move on to the Queen Mother Champion Chase and this is nowhere near as clear cut. Paul Nicholls seemed pretty sweet on the place chances of Greaneteen for this one and at 33/1 I won’t put anyone off a shilling each way, but as I have to try to name the winner, it’s Energumene for me. Only Willie Mullins will know how cooked he was last time out when a disappointing third at Cheltenham, but if you are brave enough to ignore that run, his overall form stands out. He easily won the race last year having taken his first five starts over fences, and with his only other defeat a length second to Shishkin at Ascot, he seems the likeliest winner here – again with a clear round.
Thursday means the Stayers Hurdle and this is a real quandary. Flooring Porter had a setback earlier in the season and it was touch and go whether he even made the race, but he won this in 2021 and 2022 and if he is back to that level, he is great value at the current 7/1. Blazing Khal has done nothing wrong but the was off for over a year before winning at Navan and is another who has clearly had his issues, while Paisley Park won this in 2019 and is capable of springing a surprise even at the age of 11 – if he is in one of his going moods.
On Friday we round thigs off with the 99th Cheltenham Gold Cup and another competitive renewal. The Irish have won the last four renewal and dominate the market again with favourite Galopin Des Champs heading the market. A Plus Tard won this last year and is not to be overlooked, while Hewick could also have some say despite his price. Taking a bigger risk for a change, and Ahoy Senor was back to his best when winning here in January and f he is in the same mood, he may run them all in to the ground. Sadly he can make errors which he can’t afford here, but if not, he will give us a good run for our money at 14/1.
Lastly, I was asked elsewhere to come up with my idea of my bet of the meeting – thanks a lot whoever came up with that idea! By definition it isn’t easy (other than saying Constitution Hill at odds of 4/11), but I did get the feeling that Paul Nicholls was keen on the chances of Thyme White in the Grand Annual Chase on Foxhunters on Wednesday afternoon. He goes best fresh and has been deliberately kept back for this contest, and at 25/1 an each way bet may pay rich rewards.
Bored of racing – listen to my thoughts and those of Ron Robinson at Post Racing on the free podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/03/03/the-cough-post-racing-cough-podcast-cough-sorry-about-the-cough/
On to the racing:
Saturday
Doncaster 2.40pm
Just the six runners for our first race today but if the official ratings are to be taken at face value, we can expect a winning favourite in the shape of She’s A Saint. Already a money-spinner for the Skelton yard with two wins and four second places from six starts, she was last seen coming home second to You Wear It Well at Sandown in a Grade Two Novice, beaten eight lengths but six lengths clear of the third. The three miles here is the unknown quantity as she steps up half a mile, but the opposition looks easier to deal with (famous last words), and if she stays, she should win this under Bridget Andrews
Kelso 2.25pm
Kelso have the magic word “soft” in their going description hence a decent looking field of 11 are all set to line up for this two and a quarter mile novice hurdle worth over £28,000 to the winner. Irish raider Feronily heads the betting for Emmet Mullin after coming home third to A Dream To Share in a very decent Leopardstown bumper, after finishing second at the same venue in December where he had No Time To Wait, who hacked up at Down Royal on his next start, suggesting he has plenty of ability. We don’t know if he can jump a hurdle but he did win his only point-to-point by 10 lengths at Rathcannon and this looks a relatively sensible task for his first start over the smaller obstacles.
Meydan 2.25pm
A bit of a conundrum on the dirt on Super Saturday with plenty running here looking for the win and a chance of racing again for the really big bucks on World Cup night. Bendoog and Salute The Soldier are the two I concentrated on here with the draw the possible deciding factor, We can ignore the last run of Adrie de Vries’ mount where he pulled a shoe after overreaching at the start before hating all the kick back a slow start entailed, but from the 10 box he may suffer the same issues, and the younger Bhupat Seemar trained col is narrowly preferred. He was not disgraced when coming home a six-length second to World Cup hope Algiers here last time out, sand it seems unlikely many or even any of these would have got that close, and from the four stall he may try to make every post a winning one.
Newbury 2.45pm
No time for statistics today (sorry), but it is noted that we have not seen a winning favourite since 2015. Paul Nicholls has won three of the last six runnings suggesting Espoir De Guye may outrun his price on his first start for the yard and following a wind operation, but it is last year’s winner Paint The Dream who catches the eye. We know he handles the track and the trip with four wins over this sort of distance and three wins from three starts here since being switched to fences. Three of his five successes have been on the predicted Good going (the other two were on soft) so unlike some, this going is to his liking, and although he odes have to carry 11lb higher this year than last, he was an acceptable if distant third in a far better race last time out off 2lb higher and gets my vote now.
Kelso 3.35pm
The Dan Skelton team head North to Kelso with a very strong team in action and the likelihood of plenty of win and place prize money, hopefully including Le Milos, whose task seems likely to be made ever easier if February winner Zanza takes up an alternative engagement at Newbury. The winner of both starts over fences this season at Bangor and Newbury in November, the latter when taking the Coral Gold Cup by half a length from David Pipe’s Remastered (a personal favourite), and although upped 6lb for that success, this is, in theory, a weaker contest. Add in a three-month break to freshen him up and a small field he may be able to dominate, and a comfortable win here may well see him take up his next engagement in the Grand National at Aintree next month.
Meydan 3.45pm
A 15 runner Group One on grass from Dubai next but with Godolphin responsible for four of the runners and Shadwell another two, team tactics may well come in to play. Jockey bookings have me head-scratching with Danny Tudhope on board the favourite Real World, William Buick on top of second favourite Master Of The Seas, James Doyle riding the hat-trick seeking Valiant Prince, and Pat Cosgrave picking up the ride on Land Of Legends – go figure. On official ratings the market looks to have it correct (and I am a big fan of Danny Tudhope by the way), and with his Ascot second to Baeed the best form on offer and a gelding operation since, he does look the likeliest winner. That said, the two retained Godolphin jockeys (Buick and Doyle) will have surely had the choice, and my bets will be reduced accordingly – just in case.
Navan 4.20pm
Not really the race I had hoped for with just the five runners for this Grade Three Novice chase, but if Ha D’Orcan bounce back to his best he seems the likeliest winner. Very smart over hurdles and still a baby at the age of six, he hacked up by 11 lengths at Fairyhouse on his first try over fences, but rather let the side down last time out when beaten 46 lengths on heavy going at Punchestown, stopping quickly and being eased off once his chance had gone. I suspect the holding ground was part of the cause that day, but it doesn’t explain just how bad he was, though in a trappy race, I am happy enough to give him another chance on a quicker surface today.
Sean’s Suggestions
Win singles and a win double: Feronily 2.25pm Kelso and Real World 3.35pm Meydan (to small stakes)
***NO ARTICLE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKENDS (HOLIDAY TIME), BUT I WILL MAKE UP FOR THAT WITH AN ARTICLE EVERY DAY OF THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL– WIFI ABROAD ALLOWING***
On to the racing:
Saturday
Doncaster 2.40pm
Just the six runners for our first race today but if the official ratings are to be taken at face value, we can expect a winning favourite in the shape of She’s A Saint. Already a money-spinner for the Skelton yard with two wins and four second places from six starts, she was last seen coming home second to You Wear It Well at Sandown in a Grade Two Novice, beaten eight lengths but six lengths clear of the third. The three miles here is the unknown quantity as she steps up half a mile, but the opposition looks easier to deal with (famous last words), and if she stays, she should win this under Bridget Andrews
Kelso 2.25pm
Kelso have the magic word “soft” in their going description hence a decent looking field of 11 are all set to line up for this two and a quarter mile novice hurdle worth over £28,000 to the winner. Irish raider Feronily heads the betting for Emmet Mullin after coming home third to A Dream To Share in a very decent Leopardstown bumper, after finishing second at the same venue in December where he had No Time To Wait, who hacked up at Down Royal on his next start, suggesting he has plenty of ability. We don’t know if he can jump a hurdle but he did win his only point-to-point by 10 lengths at Rathcannon and this looks a relatively sensible task for his first start over the smaller obstacles.
Meydan 2.25pm
A bit of a conundrum on the dirt on Super Saturday with plenty running here looking for the win and a chance of racing again for the really big bucks on World Cup night. Bendoog and Salute The Soldier are the two I concentrated on here with the draw the possible deciding factor, We can ignore the last run of Adrie de Vries’ mount where he pulled a shoe after overreaching at the start before hating all the kick back a slow start entailed, but from the 10 box he may suffer the same issues, and the younger Bhupat Seemar trained col is narrowly preferred. He was not disgraced when coming home a six-length second to World Cup hope Algiers here last time out, sand it seems unlikely many or even any of these would have got that close, and from the four stall he may try to make every post a winning one.
Newbury 2.45pm
No time for statistics today (sorry), but it is noted that we have not seen a winning favourite since 2015. Paul Nicholls has won three of the last six runnings suggesting Espoir De Guye may outrun his price on his first start for the yard and following a wind operation, but it is last year’s winner Paint The Dream who catches the eye. We know he handles the track and the trip with four wins over this sort of distance and three wins from three starts here since being switched to fences. Three of his five successes have been on the predicted Good going (the other two were on soft) so unlike some, this going is to his liking, and although he odes have to carry 11lb higher this year than last, he was an acceptable if distant third in a far better race last time out off 2lb higher and gets my vote now.
Kelso 3.35pm
The Dan Skelton team head North to Kelso with a very strong team in action and the likelihood of plenty of win and place prize money, hopefully including Le Milos, whose task seems likely to be made ever easier if February winner Zanza takes up an alternative engagement at Newbury. The winner of both starts over fences this season at Bangor and Newbury in November, the latter when taking the Coral Gold Cup by half a length from David Pipe’s Remastered (a personal favourite), and although upped 6lb for that success, this is, in theory, a weaker contest. Add in a three-month break to freshen him up and a small field he may be able to dominate, and a comfortable win here may well see him take up his next engagement in the Grand National at Aintree next month.
Meydan 3.45pm
A 15 runner Group One on grass from Dubai next but with Godolphin responsible for four of the runners and Shadwell another two, team tactics may well come in to play. Jockey bookings have me head-scratching with Danny Tudhope on board the favourite Real World, William Buick on top of second favourite Master Of The Seas, James Doyle riding the hat-trick seeking Valiant Prince, and Pat Cosgrave picking up the ride on Land Of Legends – go figure. On official ratings the market looks to have it correct (and I am a big fan of Danny Tudhope by the way), and with his Ascot second to Baeed the best form on offer and a gelding operation since, he does look the likeliest winner. That said, the two retained Godolphin jockeys (Buick and Doyle) will have surely had the choice, and my bets will be reduced accordingly – just in case.
Navan 4.20pm
Not really the race I had hoped for with just the five runners for this Grade Three Novice chase, but if Ha D’Orcan bounce back to his best he seems the likeliest winner. Very smart over hurdles and still a baby at the age of six, he hacked up by 11 lengths at Fairyhouse on his first try over fences, but rather let the side down last time out when beaten 46 lengths on heavy going at Punchestown, stopping quickly and being eased off once his chance had gone. I suspect the holding ground was part of the cause that day, but it doesn’t explain just how bad he was, though in a trappy race, I am happy enough to give him another chance on a quicker surface today.
Sean’s Suggestions
Win singles and a win double: Feronily 2.25pm Kelso and Real World 3.35pm Meydan (to small stakes)
***NO ARTICLE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKENDS (HOLIDAY TIME), BUT I WILL MAKE UP FOR THAT WITH AN ARTICLE EVERY DAY OF THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL– WIFI ABROAD ALLOWING***
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