Exciting times for me if nothing else as I am off to Harry Fry’s on Sunday afternoon for a chart and a look at some of his horses, so watch this space in case I am given the nod about any improving sorts worthy of serious consideration as we (sadly) head toward the winter and the National Hunt season proper.
Naturally we have a few things to talk about in the World of racing, and this week I will start with the news that 888 have made a bid for William Hill’s European (non-American) betting arm, but what does that mean for us lowly punters? Even with competition we still seem to be getting a pretty ropey deal on occasions with account limitations and closures, and I cannot see that betting any better as the industry consolidates which is understandable from a cost saving perspective, but nothing but harm will come out of it for punters, mark my words.
Meanwhile, over the sea in Ireland I note they are looking to ban adverts for gambling companies until after the watershed and I wonder how long before we do the same. It does appear that they are still in the 20th century at best – the days when children go to bed before 9.00pm are long gone these days, and with recorders, catch up, and on demand services you simply cannot keep under 18s away from any TV programmes these days without parental help via restrictions and password channels, and I am afraid that simply isn’t going to happen in most households (my boys knew the password better than I did within days). It does look like a plaster over a gaping wound to me, and a far better solution is education about the potential harm or risks involved in gambling, and (dare I say it?), expecting parents to take on some responsibility too.
Lastly for this week its back to the age-old question of who is better than who? Would Tiger Roll have beaten Red Rum, was Nijinsky better than Frankel and so on are unwinnable arguments, and now we have Palace Pier and Baaeed with a “who is the best miler” question? We may find out soon enough with both entered in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot next month, but for now my allegiance lies with Palace Pier who has been there and got the t-shirt – his younger upstart rival still has a little to prove for me.
Fed up with tiring your eyes out reading my waffle – how about a little listen to the podcast here with my old mate Ron Robinson from World Of Sport https://postracing.co.uk/2021/09/09/ron-and-sean-cover-11-group-races-being-run-friday-and-saturday-at-doncaster-and-leopardstown/
On to the racing over the weekend…
Friday Racing:
Doncaster 1.40pm
Just a Listed race to start with, but an interesting one nonetheless, though I would be surprised if any real superstars appear out of this line-up. Noble truth heads the early market dropping down after a fourth in Group three company, but it would be no great surprise to see one of the others improve past him here, and I am thinking that may well be Ribhi who impressed with a winning debut, showing a sparkling turn of foot when asked to quicken up before going away for a comfortable success. He doesn’t not hold any fancy entries which is a concern, and there is no guarantee Jim Crowley will be passed fit to ride, but he does look a horse worth following, and at 5/1 or bigger I am sorely tempted with an each way bet to nothing, assuming he places at the very least.
Doncaster 2.10pm
More two-year-olds and let’s be honest here, they can be the tougher to get right with so much room for potential improvement from some if not all of the runners. I can see why Armor trades as favourite here after a win in the Group Three Molecomb Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, followed by a fourth at Deauville in the Group One Prix Morny, when he appeared to weaken late on over the sixth furlong. Back in trip and down in class he is the likeliest winner, though I have less confidence about his chances than the bookmakers, that’s for sure.
Doncaster 2.40pm
With the going officially Good to Firm at the time of writing (we had some rain last night here in the South so that could change), you can see why Stradivarius trades as short as he does with market rival Trueshan far better with plenty of cut in the ground. Stradivarius is and has been a breath of fresh air for the game, winning 18 races in total so far, and over £3 million in prize money, but I have to admit I do not believe he is the force of old. He should win this for the second time regardless but has put in the odd below par effort recently and at those odds, I will watch but not get involved other than cheering him home.
Saturday Racing:
Leopardstown 1.10pm
Part one of the Aidan O’Brien show and a race he has won six times in the last ten years, though not necessarily with what the market perceived as the stable first string, with prices up to 9/1. This year his runners look below his normal level, and he may have to give way to one of his sons, whose horses appear to have the better credentials. Absolute Ruler caught my eye when winning very easily on his debut at Dundalk and although this is different class, he is a well-bred son of War Front and a brother of Military Style who is currently rated 104. If he can match his big brother then he has a good chance here, but I will suggest we back him each way, though we have no prices yet and I have no idea if he will be any value – or not.
Leopardstown 1.40pm
This year I will assume that Mother Earth is the O’Brien first choice (of three declared), with the daughter of Zoffany already assured a future in the breeding barns after a very productive season. A length win in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas in May has been followed by three Group One places in the French 1000 Guineas (second), Coronation Stakes (third), Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket (second), and then another win in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville last month. She is a class act even if she has had a tough long season (my main concern), and ought to prove too good for these, though last year’s winner Champers Elysees looked to be coming back to her best when second last month and could go well at a bigger price with a place a possibility.
Leopardstown 2.10pm
In the good old days, we used to farm this with the British raiders, winning five of the seven runnings of this Group Two contest, and I think our sole raider for 2021 has a decent each way chance if you look very carefully at her form. Fev Rover was third to Mother Earth in the 1000 Guineas in May, beaten a length and a quarter on Good to Firm ground, 10th of 14 in the Irish 1000 Guineas on Heavy ground and most recently sixth in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot, again on heavy ground after getting bumped and put out of her stride at the start. She drops down from those Group One contests now and more importantly, races on far better ground, and although no good thing here, she gets three pounds or more from the colts, and even more from her elders, and could spring a surprise at an each way price.
Leopardstown 2.45pm
Not just the British racing then? A Group One with 570,000 Euros in prize money on Good going, and just the four runners, though to be fair, they are a classy bunch. Hats-off to the connections of Poetic Flare who rarely shies away form a battle and he looks interesting trying a mile and a quarter for the first time. With every possibility of a slow early pace he may not have his stamina tested to the full, in which case he seems sure to put in his usual brave effort with his neck defeat to Palace Pier last time out, rock solid form. Tarnawa is a top-class mare who has won her last five starts, three of them at Group One level and including the Breeders Cup Turf over a mile and a half at Keeneland last November. She has won four times over this trip but has more stamina than the others her and won’t want this to turn in to a sprint, leaving St Mark’s Basilica as the likeliest winner. Unbeaten this season, he took the French 200 Guineas in May, the French Derby in June, and the Coral -Eclipse in July. What he does have is both speed over the mile and stamina over this mile and a quarter, a potent mix in this small field meaning he can sprint or stay, depending on how the race unfolds, making him the only sensible bet in a race with more questions than answers.
Leopardstown 3.15pm
A mile and a half for this Group Three, and a horse I have been waiting for means I am duty bound to have myself a bet. Innisfree has been a bit of a forgotten horse despite an outstanding season as a two-year-old where he won two of his four starts including the Group Two Beresford Stakes, usually a pointer to the following year’s Derby, before rounding the season off with a second to Kameko in the Group One Futurity Stakes at Newcastle. The winner has gone on to win the 2000 Guineas 2020 and retired to stud rated 122, so the form looks very decent. Off the track from November 2019 to August this year, the son of Galileo was sent back in to action at The Curragh over an inadequate mile and a quarter, where he ran on late in to third despite being easy to back in the on course market. Upped in trip here and with that run under his belt he will hopefully outclass these by some margin and come home alone – or he could bounce and put in a horrible effort, but that’s a chance I am willing to take.
Doncaster 2.20pm
Well, you knew I would have to say it sometime so here goes - four runners for a Group Two as historically important as the Champagne Stakes, is frankly embarrassing for the sport. A lack of pace is a possibility in small fields, a tactical race, and even a false result, and I will wait until after the race to see if I feel the form will have any real relevance. Reach For The Moon will probably go off favourite and would be a popular winner in the colours of The Queen, and after four length successes at Newbury and Sandown he deserves his place at the head of the market. Lusail looks a very serious rival to me after winning the Gimcrack Stakes at York last time out to make it four out of five for the season, but he has to give 3lb to the jolly as he steps up to seven furlongs for the first time which time may tell is a very difficult ask. He may well have to make the pace here and be there to be shot at in an intriguing race to watch, but not one for betting purposes.
Doncaster 3.00pm
Three-year-olds only have an 11% strike rate here over the last 20 odd years which comes as a surprise when you consider they get 4lb from their elders. Danyah looks best of the older horses for Owen Burrows after his all the way win at Ascot in July in a valuable handicap, but it may be telling to note that Jim Crowley, who would have had a choice, has chosen to ride Laneqash of the two. A maiden winner at two, he returned from a long absence with a respectable second to Sacred in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury over this trip, losing a shoe before going under by just a length. Likely to strip fitter here we can expect a big run again here though I suspect he has had his issues to be off the track between October and August and will reduce my bets accordingly.
Doncaster 3.35pm
The forgotten Classic. In an age where horses are being bred for speed not stamina, the fifth and final classic of the season has become a bit of a forgotten beast sadly, which is not something I agree with at all with history such a large part of the sport we all love, and why our racing appeals the most of any around the planet. Ten runners are due to go to post, but Aidan O’Brien is responsible for half of them, forcing me to wait for his jockey bookings before deciding which appears to be his best chance. He has won three of the last ten runnings, but if he has one good enough to beat Hurricane Lane here, I would be surprised. Some will tell you this isn’t a good year for the classic generation but I disagree, and Godolphin’s son of has one blip on his record when third to stable companion Adayar in the Epsom Derby, with Mojo Star (who re-opposes here) one place in front of him. Before that, he had won the Dante at York, and since then, he has won the Irish Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris (by six lengths) and looks a very decent colt. He trades at odds-on here so no prizes for picking him as the selection, and although I do think he will win, he does have stamina questions to answer and is thus very poor value, with Mojo Star seriously considered as an each way alternative.
Sean’s Selections:
Innisfree 3.15pm Leopardstown Saturday
Fev Rover Each Way 2.10pm Leopardstown Saturday
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