Although it was a bit of a muted breeders Cup in these very strange times, we still saw some amazing performances, though it has to be said that they would never allow a meeting to go ahead on ground that firm over here, perhaps they haven’t heard of watering in the good old U S of A?
Pre racing I was all over Glass Slippers as the best horse in the field ahead of the turf sprint as this is her time of year, and you don’t win an Abbaye unless you are way above average, but I couldn’t tip her (or back her) on that sort of ground – how wrong can you be? Hats off to trainer Kevin Ryan and jockey Tom Eaves for producing her at her peak for such a valuable contest, though I can only hope she came back in one piece after running on the equivalent of a concrete road. Amusingly, the American commentators are even worse than ours and failed to even comment on the run of favourite Yaupon in the dirt sprint (if you fancy a look here you go https://www.nbcsports.com/video/whitmore-wins-2020-sprint-gives-ron-moquett-first-breeders-cup-win), where he was completely mullered and had zero chance after that, and if they can’t spot something that obvious it makes you wonder how they keep their jobs – even Matt Chapman shines in comparison!
Once again Aidan O’Brien broke records when saddling the first three home in the Mile, and those who had the faith (and perhaps too much to drink) were rewarded with a forecast of £2117.80 to a £2 stake – though how the winner returned 40/1 here yet 73/1 over there is open to debate. Order Of Australia could not beat his stable mates (or Kameko) on all known form but horses make fools of us all of us with Pierre-Charles Boudot riding him to perfection. I also have to say a heartfelt congratulations to James Fanshawe for a winner with his first Breeders Cup runner in Audarya who sneaked under my radar, and Dermot Weld, the original racing globetrotter, with Taranawa – who didn’t.
Plaudits aplenty completed and on to the racing this weekend where I am hoping we can make hay during the early part of the National Hunt season via both Cheltenham and Punchestown – fingers crossed.
Saturday
12.30pm Cheltenham
Eight runners and the chance of a place one two three just seems too good to be true, and I am quietly confident we will see a non-runner by the off – but we can only work with what we have in front of us and calculate accordingly. As three year olds there is likely to be plenty to come from some if not all of these with Adagio likely to fit that description for trainer David Pipe. Despite showing scant respect for the hurdles on his debut for the yard at Warwick, he still came home over seven lengths clear of nearest rival Duke Of Condicote, and he could well be the fly in the ointment here assuming he brushes up on his jumping second time around. He needs to do more to worry Gordon Elliott’s Duffle Coat who seems by far the likeliest winner and, dare I say it, the most likely to go on from this trial to the Triumph Hurdle itself in March. Unbeaten after three starts over obstacles he brings experience as well as form to the table and should prove tough to beat despite having to give weight away to the rest of the field though Hell Red is an interesting alternative and may well be a serious danger in this line-up.
1.40pm Cheltenham
A poor field of just six considering the Good to Soft going is ideal for the majority of National Hunt horses, but an interesting field nonetheless and a race worthy of a deeper look. Seven of the last ten runnings have been one by the Hobbs, Nicholls, or Henderson stables, but as all three are represented in 2020 that doesn’t cut things down too much. Fusil Raffles has the chasing form in the book after wins at Uttoxeter and then over this course and distance which is a positive, but having watched the race a few times, I get the feeling he will be better over further in time, and he may find something with too many gears in this field. If I have it right (it happens, albeit it pretty rarely), then Quel Destin fits the bill for Paul Nicholls and could be the one to be on. A decent hurdles with successes at up to Listed class, he holds second favourite Eldorado Allen on Sandown form (over hurdles), his trainer told the waiting media that “…He’s going to be an awesome chaser next season” which bodes well for the future, and with a winning run on the flat at Bath last month to blow away the cobwebs, I am very happy to have the five-year-old running for me this afternoon.
2.15pm Cheltenham
One handicap a week is one too many for me as you may have noticed, and it will be interesting to see what profiling my friend Ron Robinson comes up with for this two and a half mile contest, so scroll down to the podcast if that floats your boat. Amazingly (if my maths is accurate), only three of the entries here have won off their current handicap mark, which may well explain why Saint Sonnet heads the current market if only because at the age of five he may have more improvement to offer than some, but that is nowhere near enough to get me to part with any money. Not that I expect anyone to follow my thoughts here, but I will be ditching two against the field in The Russian Doyen and Fidux. Both have won off their current ratings and both have had a recent start to suggest they will be race fit, while in Colin Tizzard and Alan King they represent stables whose horses are running to form. At 16/1 and 20/1 they are at least a spot of value in the circumstances, and as we haven’t had a winning favourite in the last ten renewals, they look to have as good a chance as any here.
12.15pm Punchestown
Something specifically for our Irish readers now, though I suspect many of them will know the form on offer here far better than I do. Benruben is one of the in form options after wins at Killarney and Roscommon, but he had a hard race last time out and that may well have left its mark I’m afraid. Sizing Pottsie has the best form here but makes too many mistakes to carry my money having started over fences five times for two successes despite multiple errors, as well as unseating at Leopardstown and falling at Thurles two races back. Last of five at Down Royal over further in a better race last month he drops into a more realistic class today and could be the one to chase home Felix Desjy for trainer Gordon Elliott and jockey Jack Kennedy. Despite falling over hurdles at Galway in July, he was devastating on his chasing bow at Killarney last month when hacking up by thirty-one lengths without ever looking out of second gear, and if he can even repeat that here it ought to be good enough as he gradually rises up through the ranks.
Sunday
1.15pm Cheltenham
A race won by some decent sorts in the past including Our Father and Thistlecrack and we have all the ingredients for a top class renewal this season as well. Three miles will certainly sort out the jumping for those more deliberate at their fences, but I have little hesitation in nominating The Big Breakaway this time around. Trained by Colin Tizzard who horses are starting to hit top form at last, he has always looked a chaser in the making and get the first chance to prove that today. Decent enough over hurdles with wins at Newbury and Chepstow before a fourth in the Ballymore at the Festival here in March, but connections have always seen him as a chaser in the making and he may yet be the horse I am most looking forward to watching all weekend.
2.25pm Cheltenham
A drop back in trip to the minimum of two miles here but if they all stand their ground this should be a learning curve for the rest of the season. Favourites have won five of the last six runnings of this contest including the last three and Defi Du Seuil is back for more after taking this last season for Philp Hobbs when keeping on well close home to see off Politologue. That was his first start of the season as it is today suggesting they have plotted the same path with the seven-year-old who looks to have a good chance of a repeat victory, though there are plenty of improvers in the race (Out The Kettle On and Rouge Vif, for example), and I won’t be having a bet here for that reason.
3.35pm Cheltenham
Although this is officially a trial for the Supreme here in March, I would be surprised if any of these can go there and claim the prize I am sorry to say. For Pleasure has been picking up plenty of prize money on Good ground at the start of the season, but he got found out at Kempton last month when hanging badly left and coming home a well beaten fourth of five. There is every possibility he will run in a different noseband here to correct his steering, but I am wary of the softer going currently predicted, which is just about enough to put me off him. Third Time Lucki steps up in class quite dramatically and has plenty to find on paper, but he seems sure to get a strong early pace that will allow him to get into a rhythm before being brought to attack late on by jockey Harry Skelton. He is no good thing by any means in a race perhaps best watched but should at least give us a good run for our money.
1.05pm Punchestown
Mares only this time around and a race won four times in the last five years by (you guessed it), Willie Mullins. At the early declaration stage Willie had no less than four entered here but by the final stage he has decided to go to war with Elimay who may or may not be named after the young lady from the Beverley Hillbillies (one for our older readers right there) and Buildmeupbuttercup. Despite being unbeaten in her last four races (two over fences), the first named comes here with plenty to find on paper at least and although opposing the stable can be financial suicide, I would rather look elsewhere on this occasion. Buildmeupbuttercup may even be the better of the pair after a recent success at Gowran Park but that form looks suspect to me, and I will take a chance on the fitness of Black Tears who looks all set for a good season. Ultra-consistent with a top three finish in her last five races and with a solid second in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham when last seen (giving four pounds to the well supported winner), she weakened close home that day and should be better suited by this shorter trip. The betting will be a good guide as to just how ready she is, but if the market talks in her favour then in receipt of weight all round she will do for me.
1.40pm Punchestown
60,000 Euros in prize money up for grabs in this two mile five and a half furlong Grade Two hurdle to be run on the unusual going of soft to heavy (at the time of writing). With twelve pounds between them thank to race conditions, life gets ever more complicated, but you would have to hope that class will tell in which case Fury Road can give weight away to these rivals. Only beaten a neck and a nose in to third in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival with favourite Thyme Hill in fourth, that form invariably works out really well and there is no reason to think 2020 will be any different. As always life is never that simple and again we have to guess his fitness levels after eight months off as he heads to the Stayers Hurdle next March, but it seems unlikely Gordon Elliott would allow him to run at less than 90% ,and even that may well be good enough for another success this afternoon.
2.10pm Punchestown
All eyes on Willie Mullins here, but then no great shock when you see that he has won this race in each of the last nine years without a break. That is a phenomenal record that is hard to ignore, and Saint Roi is his weapon of choice for 2020 as the improving five-year-old looks to lay down a marker ahead of the Championship events this winter. He quickened up in the style of a really useful sort to take the usually competitive Country Hurdle by an easy five and a half lengths, but this is not a handicap and he will need to add to that in this grade. Abracadabras is the best horse in the field according to the handicapper and won’t be far away for that man Gordon Elliott, but more interestingly, where is the early pace here for the better horses to attack from? Coeur Sublime or Jason The Militant may find themselves forced to take them along though whether they are good enough to stretch the better of these is open to question, and if it does turn in to a sprint I would still be happier with my selection than his main rival here.
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to podcast here instead https://postracing.co.uk/2020/11/13/badger-bragging-rights-and-just-what-is-aiden-obrien-on/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Quel Destin 1.40pm Cheltenham Saturday
The Big Breakaway 1.15pm Cheltenham Sunday
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