ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Time for a bit more chit chat this week, starting with the frankly embarrassing dominance of Irish racing as witnessed by the ante-post markets for the Cheltenham Festival. Having the favourites for most races is one thing – but having the top five or more in most markets is just beyond a joke. Some will suggest we should ban them from running but it’s not their fault (or their owners), and we all want to see the best take on the best at the season highlight. At this moment in time the best and (potentially) most expensive horses are sat on the other side of the Irish Sea, which may have something to do with favourable tax and VAT terms over there, though you would need to ask an accountant for all the details. What we do know as FACT is that overall prize money in the UK lags behind pretty much the rest of the recognised racing world. We have discussed that until the cows (horses?) come home over the years, but the current issue (especially National Hunt) still matters – if I have a (good) few quid spare I might risk buying a horse or part of a horse hoping for success - a pipe dream maybe, but the hope HAS to remain or why bother. The Cheltenham Festival followed by Aintree are not only the kudos races for bragging rights at the golf club, they are also the ones with the biggest cash prizes. The Gold Cup is worth over £350,000 to the winner, the Champion Hurdle £253,000, and those are the ones we aspire to – but is that being taken away by our overseas cousins? Compare those numbers to the likes of the (picked at random) 3.15 at Wincanton Thursday afternoon with less than £5000 to the winner and I am seriously worried the “all roads lead to Cheltenham” mentality is becoming a huge problem – if it’s the only way to make it pay and we can’t buy a winner what next for the sport?
Cleverly (and you thought I was an amateur), that leads neatly into falling attendances which are being reported for National Hunt – but not for the Flat. Many have put two and two together and come up with God knows what with Animal Rights and society views being blamed in some quarters. They may or may not be correct but it seems far more likely to me that a squeeze on our leisure budgets via inflation and soaring energy bills may be equally responsible alongside small and uncompetitive fields – more races at Cheltenham need to be along the lines of the Pertemps in my book – if you haven’t turned up for a qualifying race then you cannot head to the big one - force the trainers and owners take each other on earlier in the season, an unpopular view but what the race goers and punters want to see – and maybe cheaper racecourse entry as well?
Linking again and I wonder how long racing can continue to rob Peter to pay Paul? It is no secret that the added prize money for Sunday night fixtures and the like had to come from somewhere, and it means even lower funding mid-week, but this is a trial run and if it doesn’t work, we all go again. I am a firm believer that if it isn’t broken don’t fix it, but racing IS broken as it stands and I am one of the few who supports the BHA who are refusing to roll over and die and are at least looking at alternative options. Chelmsford the other week saw a better than expected crowd (cheaper entry may well have had a lot to do with that), and crucially they included plenty of families, going racing for perhaps the first time. Racing is not and should not be interested in the likes of me – I love the sport and nothing will change my mind – but they have always needed the next generation to take an interest and when we are up against numerous other sports, at least this was positive news albeit small green shoots and early days.
On to one horse next and how impressive was Triumph Hurdle winner Lossiemouth when she reappeared at Cheltenham on Saturday afternoon? She did stroll home by close to ten lengths and is clearly out of the top drawer, but taking on Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle – whose idea was that? She beat the 151 rated Love Envoi easily enough, but the big race favourite is rated 175 which puts in to perspective how much she need to find and although I can sympathise with the idea of getting something decent to take him on, if connections want to win then they would be far more sensible heading elsewhere.
Lastly (nag nag nag) PLEASE write to your MP (letter and details here or an equivalent on the Racing Post) to ask them to attend the debate about affordability checks on the 26th February. They need to be informed of the issues any checks are and will continue to cause to racings finances, the amount of rural jobs relying on racing, and the local economies that would be devastated if trainers were forced to shut up shop. Taking Newmarket, Lambourn, and Middleham as prime examples, what would happen if racing disappeared? Not just the jobs in the yards, why would you need shops, pubs, restaurants, newsagents and so on if there are no jobs and no people – the knock-on effect is being ignored and I urge you to e mail your MP asking them to attend so that, that the very least, they can be made fully aware of the issue at hand before they make a huge mistake that may affect us all.
Bored of reading and just one opinion – listen to our Podcast here where I chew the racing fat with Ron Robinson of Postracing fame…https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/02/02/irish-domination-should-lossiemouth-go-for-the-champion/
On to the racing….
1.32pm Wetherby
As things stand we are starting with a nine horse race on soft ground that may be just what the Doctor ordered for Keppage who has won twice on similar going, once each in a bumper and over hurdles. His only two runs over fences have seen well-beaten thirds, but the first was a debut following wind surgery where he looked like he would improve for the run, and the second was on heavy ground, which clearly didn’t suit. His jumping does need to improve, no doubt about that, but a mark of 118 is workable and he seems sure have been well-schooled since his last run by the David Pipe team.
2.50pm Musselburgh
A fast run two miles may suit Benson better than most and as he is equally happy coming from off the pace or making the running he has to be taken very seriously. That said, 12 stone is a lot to carry round here and we haven’t seen that weight carried to success in the last 10 years, leading me to look elsewhere. Collingham won this last year but hasn’t been at his peak this season suggesting others may do better, with a rank outsider that I just cannot resist in the shape of Sextant, a long absent nine-year-old now in the capable hands of Lucinda Russell. Five times a winner on the Flat at up to Listed level with a career high mark of 105, he has run twice over hurdles, winning at Carlisle and coming home third over course and distance back in February 2021, with a length and a half third in a Class Two Newbury handicap on the Flat in September 2021 his last outing. Racing in first-time blinkers here, he has actually been cut to 25/1 from 40/1 as wrote this piece, and if they have him right, which would be some training performance, he could hit the frame this afternoon.
3.00pm Leopardstown
The nine runnings I can find have only seen one winner carrying more than 10 stone 13 pounds, and that looks as good a place to start as any as we stick a metaphorical line through the top 17 on the card, leaving us with just the seven to deal with – risky stuff and most certainly not guaranteed to find the winner (I wish). Music Of Tara is a daughter of my favourite sire (Kayf Tara) and represents a very strong combo in Henry De Bromhead and Rachel Blackmore. She finally got off the mark at the tenth attempt over hurdles last time out here when leading on the run in here over two and a half miles, but she did win a point-to-point over three miles first time out in 2021 and as she is closely related to Ultima Chase winner Beware The Bear who stayed even further, there is good reason to think she will improve for the step up to three miles plus.
3.10pm Sandown
Trainer Venetia Williams won the last two runnings of this contest with Green Book suggesting she knows the sort needed, and at 20/1 or so I would not blame anyone having a second look at Tanganyika here, though the six-year-old will need a career best off this mark. Running though the past ten winners it is noted that we have not had one successful who completed and failed to come home in the first six on their last start, none priced bigger than 20/1 at the off, none older than nine (and only one older than eight), and only the one five-year-old. None without a run in the last 60 days, only one rated higher than 134, and all bar one from the top six in the market and if we mix those together and offer up a prayer, we end up with a shortlist of just THREE, potentially ruling out most of the field. Those left are, Saint Davy, Transmission , and Scamallach Liath, and it’s the last named that I will be punting each way. Only beaten a head last time out over this trip at Ascot in a novice handicap, the seven -year-old stays well and won’t be crying off close home, though anyone who thinks this was an easy race to even try to solve needs their head examined!
3.35pm Leopardstown
Zero chance that anyone will see this as a race to have a bet in, but it is an opportunity to see Galopin Des Champs in action in what will almost certainly be his last race before the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Heavily odds on here he cannot be opposed and only a lacklustre display or mistakes can stop him seeing off this field, where has has 12lb or more in hand of all his rivals – not just the top British races where they don’t like to take each other on then?
3.45pm Sandown
With no offence intended to jockey James Turner, it looked as if he went off too fast on board Kestrel Valley at Hereford in December, and she paid the price when weaking into fourth that day. Prior to that she had won with ease at the same track, and she followed that with a 20 length romp at Ludlow, and if she remains in that sort of form, an added 7lb from the handicapper may not stop another big run. Sam Twiston-Davies rides for father Nigel this afternoon, though if Blackjack Magic has ironed out his jumping issues, it could be some battle between the pair.
Sean's Suggestions:
Music Of Tara each way 3.00pm Leopardstown
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