ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
I am recording a podcast this week https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/04/05/is-nh-racing-dead-have-we-seen-the-last-of-consitution-hill/?fbclid=IwAR1CYjshBqgeHsSxdFnfpXTlIk7QLQb80YPf0SJuPeCdPNdlJhqTjTkug-s_aem_AcUrX1B25Jd5VJ58-P_kXi5WgmkDHxkSO2fSb7Fl7IbA4ZZiHgkU4jiQzu_h5DwWJu58yOm3Yq_i8_tDVxPDYIIV)
the subjects I have been given to cover are those I will be talking about here (efficient of me, eh) – but with so many things happening on a daily basis, this sport is never short of talking points.
To my absolute horror the first bullet point started with “are we witnessing the end of National Hunt racing in Britain” which gave me plenty of food for thought. It does FEEL as if the fields are smaller these days, and to be honest who takes much interest in a four runner novice hurdle at a gaff track from a betting perspective, but I don’t have the evidence to guarantee it hasn’t always been that way at this time of year. I do wonder if the crossover of horses from Flat to National Hunt and back again has increased over the years, but to us old folk, it seems to have been forgotten that they are effectively two different types if not breeds, and that may be part of the issue. Can we really expect spindly-legged Flat bred horses to run on bottomless ground over jumps with no issues, because that seems to me to be happening more and more? The days of store horses who were bought as youngsters then kept in a field for two or three years before making their racecourse debuts is a dim and distant memory, but all that sems to mean is the majority of horses in training aren’t bred for the task, or strong enough to cope with the conditions they face. Less sound horses, less stamina in the breeding, and less quality in the British yards isn’t a good look from both inside and outside the sport, but what can be done to remedy the situation. Nothing without pain is my instant thought, perhaps we need to ban any horse racing under National Hunt rules before the age of four, possibly even older over fences, and/or consider changing the distances of many of our important races – similar to the Flat where speed is king and the French Derby is now run over a mile and a quarter and our own Derby is seen as a stamina test. Make the championship races only open to qualifiers (to ensure competitive racing earlier in the season and Yes Cheltenham, I am talking to YOU), while we either need less racing (to force an increase in field sizes), or divide the tracks by grade – so you need to race and win at a D grade track before you are allowed to enter at a C grade and so on – I am not sure how that would work but it may be worth looking into.
As we all know by now, the trumpets were blown for the start of the Flat season at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago – but we have seen very little since. That is partly down to the race planning (does anyone know why?), and partly the abandonment of many a meeting for rain, so should we look at starting it a couple of weeks later after letting the jumps season come to an end? I am inclined to like the idea of a clear demarcation between the two sides of our sport (though the all-weather messes that up regardless), though if the receet climate change continues, it may need to be moved again if the rains keep getting worse year on year.
Next up we have a subject close to my own heart that should simply be entitled What Is The Point? I have waffled on about affordability checks for what feels like a lifetime to me (probably feels even long to you), but you really have to ask who are they (the government and the Gambling Commission) really trying to help? As a quick catch up for those who have been off Planet for a year plus, in an attempt to help the miniscule percentage of those with a gambling problem, everyone will need to go through invisible affordability checks to ensure you can afford to bet without any personal harm. I am one of thr few who doenst have a huge problem with the concept of protecting others, though the low figures that trigger checks are frankly ludicrous. With the background covered we need to move on to the genuine stupidity of it all – and a gross misunderstanding of gambling by those in charge. If we sue alcohol as an example, if I have a drink problem then stopping me buying my tipple of choice on-line (Amazon, for example) doesn’t get rid of my problem. All In ow need to do is go to any one the numerous supermarkets who sell booze, or local shops, and stock up – so back to square one then. Unbelievably (and I don’t use that word lightly), that is the pan for gambling - affordability checks will only apply to on-line gambling – so I can be stopped having a tenner (£10) on-line – but head to the local betting shop or racetrack and have a ton (£100) on, no questions asked? Forgive my cynicism but I am sorry – I simply do not believe it – in my mind this will merely be stage one. The Gambling Commission will, perhaps quite rightly, go after any bookmaker who is not seen to be protecting their customers to a point, and if that means in shop customers so be it. The worst thing about the entire scenario is that the bookmakers brought this on themselves via some pretty shady practices in the past, but it is the customers (thats you and me, by the way) who are and will continue paying the price. Shortened odds, bonus removals, and account restrictions and closures are all weapons being used to make sure they keep their profit margins despite a huge reduction in turnover - and all this under the watch of the authorities who quite frankly could not give a hoot about those they are allegedly trying to help.
Lastly for the chit-chat this week, there was good news and bad news regarding Constitution Hill. Nicky Henderson reported his stable star had suffered from colic, and as that can be a killer in horses, there were worried frowns on everybody’s faces, and a few prayers spoken to St Eligius, the patron Saint of horses among other things. The good news is he is back home at Seven Barrows after his illness, but the bad news is we won’t see him again this season. Conspiracy theorists think we won’t see him on a track again, but he is a gelding with zero breeding value, so they will do everything they can to get him back to the course next season. Colic is a gut-based issue and although I am no vet, if he is fully recovered then there is no reason we won’t see him again, but he is perhaps a touch more fragile than we once thought, and connections will quite rightly make all their decisions based on the welfare of the horse, and we can only sit back and hope for the very best.
Kempton 2.05pm
Who would have thought we would get an all-weather race with such an interesting field with some serious challengers from Ireland joining the home team over the mile, and the age-old battle of race fitness versus potential. Many Tears heads the early betting ahead of her first start for James Ferguson after winning her last start impressively for Ger Lyons in Listed company at Dundalk in November. She could be on an upward curve, but she has a bit to find on official ratings regardless, and has to give 3lb away to all her rivals which suggests to me she has more to do. Choisya has a one in three strike rate and is worth consideration, but at a better price, I am happier weighing in each way with Mystic Pearl. She is joint top on the ratings off a mark of 100, and races for Newmarket handler William Haggas, whose string are in good form with three winners from their last six runners as I write. The money has been coming for the daughter of Invincible Spirt (10/1 as I started this article. 6/1 when I finished and I am not that slow!), she was last seen finishing fourth to English Rose in the Group Two Balanchine at Meydan in Dubai when failing to quicken up over a furlong further but she drops two grades this afternoon and – they try cheekpieces for the first time. She is unexposed on the all-weather with just the one start when second at Southwell in April last year, and with her last win at Sandown in this grade surely she has a solid each way chance this afternoon.
The Curragh 2.55pm
The Alleged Stakes over a mile and a quarter is named after an all-time great and has, although only a Group Three, attracted a pretty impressive field despite the heavy going currently predicted. Crypto Force is the dark horse here having beaten Irish Derby runner-up Adelaide River (currently rated 114) comfortably enough in the Beresford Stakes as a two-year-old, though he missed all of last season which has to be of some concern. It would be a training triumph if Adrian Murray can have him tuned up to win this after 560 days off the track and common sense suggests we look elsewhere – though I will be watching him with interest. White Birch has a bit to find with Crypto Force on a line through Adelaide River but he looked the sort who would make up into a stronger four-year-old despite some solid form last season, and better still, he has a win to his name on heavy ground after taking the Group Three Ballysax Stakes over this trip on his first start last season, all of which augurs well for a big run again here.
Kempton 3.15pm
A two-mile handicap on the all-weather needs a bit more digging to try to cut the field down to those with the best chances, and I have 26 years of data to work through! In no particular order 25 or the 26 were drawn 12 or lower, priced 40/1 or shorter, aged eight or younger, rated 97 or lower, and came from the first 10 in the betting. Apply all those (dodgy) rules and we are down to a shortlist of five - Spirit Mixer, Solent Gateway, Splendent, Sweet Fantasy, and Circuit Breaker. If we are lucky, then one of that quintet will come home in front, but somehow we need to cull the list once more to get to the sole selection. Spirit Mixer was tempting with trainer Andrew Balding having a record in the race of three runners for a win and a place, but he hasn’t won since May 2022 and I will take the chance on the lightly raced Circuit Breaker (each way). Bought out of Ralph Beckett’s yard for 260,000 Guineas in the October sales, the Nathaniel gelding has his first start for Jonjo O’Neill here and may have more to come. A course and distance winner in September last year which he followed with a good second on soft ground at Haydock, his race fitness is an unknown quantity after six months off the track, but with only five starts on the clock, I am hoping he is in for a rewarding season.
Kempton 4.55pm
Favourite backers beware as we haven’t seen a winning jolly since Dougan in 2016, but with only one double figure victory in the seven runnings, outsiders have an equally poor record. Only one winner came out of a double figure draw with four coming from the one or two stall, and that seems to point towards Knebworth in my view. The Richard Hughes trained four-year-old pops out of the two stall here as he looks to follow up his Doncaster win last month on the turf where he battled back after being headed. His all-weather record reads well with three wins two seconds two fourths and a seventh (in Group class) from eight starts, and if the cheekpieces work for a second time here, then an added 3lb from the handicapper may not be enough to stop him while the stable remain at the top of their game with a 44% strike rate in the last two weeks.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Each Way Double – Mystic Pearl 2.05pm Kempton and Knebworth 4.55pm Kempton
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