ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
This week I am going to start things off with the big news (that slipped under some media radar) that the Jockey Club are willing to share some or all of their media rights information with the Thoroughbred Group, which looks like a huge step forward. For those unaware, and this is my personal opinion, racing has been in-fighting for more years than I care to count. Everyone seems to blame everyone else for where the money is going form the sport – bookmakers, owners, racecourse breeders have all taken their fair share of attacks over the decades, but media rights money has been a bone of contention for a long time now. The ROA (Racehorse Owners Association) estimate the figure at £150 million per annum which goes directly to the racecourses who have the rights to the streams, but everyone has long argued (rightly or wrongly) that a far larger percentage of this money needs to be put into prize money than is currently the case. When you don’t know how big the pie is, we are talking an impossibility to know if you are or aren’t getting your fair share, and we can but hope this is a step forward. Figures bandied about (accurate or not) sat at about £33,000 per race and one look at this afternoon’s. (Wednesday’s) cards show total prize money for the most valuable race on each card of £11,700 at Doncaster, £10,000 at Leicester, and £8,000 at Kempton – and those figures obviously include entry fees from the owners as well as race sponsorship. At first glance those figures don’t add up (if we assume the £33,000 per race is anywhere near to accurate), and although there is a sensible argument that racecourses need a subsidy to open the gates and put on the product, I do have to wonder if this takes away any incentive as a business to run efficiently i.e. the right number of staff, ticket prices, drink and food prices and so on to attract in the requisite racegoers if they can just keep going back to a bottomless pot? One thing is certain – it will be interesting to see if any of this information is shared more widely so us scribes can draw our own conclusions, and whether other racecourses, headed by ARC, are equally willing to go public? Well after writing that Martin Cruddace (ARC) has had an interview published in the Racing Post that suggests the answer is very much a no. Statements like “What I am not ever going to allow is for a trainer or an owner to tell this company how it should be run and what it should spend money on” isn’t going to endear him to large parts of the racing community, while adding "Those racecourses that stand up and say, 'We give 100 per cent of our media rights to prize-money', it demonstrates a level of economic naivety that would be embarrassing for a five-year-old" could be seen as a bit below the belt and dare I say it, condescending? Funnily enough, I suspect he is far better qualified to speak on the subject than me, or anyone else when it comes to ARC the business, but if racecourses (all of them, not just ARC) have nothing to hide they do need to either explain themselves in more detail, or be far more open about where the money is going, even if they do have to redact large parts for commercial reasons.
On a brighter note, did everyone see the ride from Joe Anderson at Plumpton on Sunday (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVfkHk6gw20), a livewire candidate for ride of the century let alone ride of the season. I have never ridden a horse to be honest (remains on the bucket list), but even I can see that his recovery after being launched out the side door of Transmission was riding genius, and I am also told that staying on the horse after that without his feet in the irons would have been equally difficult even on the Flat, let alone when the young lad had to steer his horse over hurdles. I suspect he would have been a leading candidate for any riding awards had he just stayed on his mount to the finish, but he gathers his irons once more at the 10th and went on to win by over two lengths, suggesting he has a very bright future at the winter game.
Lastly, well apart from the horses for the weekend, “Premierisation” started at Cheltenham on New Years Day, with Plumpton last Sunday the latest meeting to get increased prize money – and publicity/marketing. As you will all know by now, so far it seems to have gone down like a lead balloon with some, but I am one of the odd ones out – I will support it unwaveringly and give it the time it needs to bed in along with any revisions to the fixture list. Rome wasn’t built in a day as they say, and racing folk including me can be a bit stuck in their ways, rejecting change, but the FACT is racing is in trouble for all sorts of reasons, and I applaud the BHA for realising that, and looking to try new things in the hope they work. Crowds were up at Plumpton, though the fields could have been bigger, and although I understand and respect the jockeys opinions of the Wolverhampton evening card Sunday evening, we now live in a 24/7 world and if the public want it, perhaps a day off mid-week may be the long-term solution to keep everyone appeased?
Fancy giving your eyes a rest- and ruining your ears instead – podcast here! https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/01/12/premierisation-media-rights-joe-anderson-and-six-weekend-winners/
Saturday Racing
Wetherby 1.10pm
Jumping should be the name of the game for this two and a half mile novices’ chase, with Nicky Henderson winning it last year with 7/2 shot City Chief, the first six-year-old to come home in front. Colonel Harry heads the early markets after his win at Chepstow was followed by an excellent second to Le Patron in the Grade One Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown but the winner was a 16/1 shot and the time was nothing to write home about. That said, with the Willie Mullins raider now out (sadly), it does rather feel as if my hands are tied, with second favourite Trelawne third in a weaker race last time out. He may still prove to be the biggest danger with improvement likely but the formbook and official ratings leave him with a little to find making the jolly that bit more difficult to oppose.
Kempton 1.30pm
Just the three miles over fences for these seasoned handicappers, and with only the 11 runnings so far, using stats seems more questionable, but it is noted that not one of those successful arrived here after scoring last time out, which is more than unusual. All winners started at 10/1 or shorter which is a starting point, with none younger than eight, and all from the first seven in the betting at the off (though with seven declared runners that tells us zilch). If we use those facts (and the current betting, unfortunately) we come up with a shortlist of two – Flegmatik or Gustavian. I cannot pretend to be overexcited by either to be honest, but the betting suggests Dan Skelton’s gelding has the better chance, though his win record of three from 19 starts over fences (plus five places) means my bets will be to pennies with bigger fish to fry later on!
Warwick 1.49pm
Another marathon handicap, this time three miles and a furlong, though no fences, just hurdles to negotiate successfully. Statistics again for starters and in the 20 runnings of this contest under various names, we have only see one winner priced larger than 12/1. Age seems irrelevant with winners for five to ten years old coming home in front, but only one rated lower than 121, and one rated higher than 142 – for what that is worth. Nothing has won this who failed to complete last time out which catches the eye (and removes one of the runners if it holds up once more), and all came from the first eight in the market (brilliant – eight runners now declared). My final filter is that every horse to take this had raced in the last 60 days, leaving me with half the field left – not exactly what I was hoping for. Kyntara was sorely tempting as he looks for his hat-trick but this looks a far bigger ask than his recent novice success, while Martha Brae won readily enough last time out to suggest she can have a big say despite an added 5lb from the handicapper, but Mel Monroe is just about preferred. Another Irish raider, this time in the care of Gordon Elliott, she makes her handicap debut this afternoon off a mark of 132 which she may well exploit. Although this is her first try at this trip there is plenty of stamina in her pedigree to suggest we may even see some improvement, and as her last two starts saw her finish fourth in a Grade Three at Navan, and third in a Listed race at Punchestown, she may make the most of this theoretically weaker company.
Kempton 2.07pm
I was a huge fan of Silviniaco Conti when he was racing so it would be remiss of me not to look at the race run in his honour. A small field for big prize money means (in my view) the BHA should be asking both owners and trainers questions, but we deal with what we have in front of us as always. Three joint favourites as I write in the shape of Banbridge, Edwardstone, and Pic D’Orhy, but although I respect Joseph O’Brien’s runner (Banbridge), he has to find 4lb or more with his market rivals and hasn’t been seen since April last year, suggesting this is a big ask. Edwardstone step up in trip, possibly to see if he can avoid Jonbon in future races over two miles, but the fact that he has only tried this sort of trip once when third on an easier track at Aintree and is now aged 10 does suggest stamina may not be his strong point, something his opponents will be well aware of. That leaves me with Pic D’Orhy from the Paul Nicholls yard, a 16 length victor at Ascot on his only start of the season, and the winner of five of his last six starts over fences, with a defeat by an in the mood Shishkin in the Ascot Chase in February far from being a disgrace. Still only a nine-year-old, he looks to be at his peak at present and as he is rated just 2lb inferior to Edwardstone but is possibly the more effective at this trip, he will do for me.
Warwick 2.24pm
This always looked like it would be a poor turn out for the close to £43,000 in prize money to the winner, with only seven declared at the early stage, and although this has been a Henderson and Nicholls fest in the last eight years with the score 4-3 to Nicky (and one for Malcolm Jefferson), neither have a runner in 2024. Neither are represented this year in (another) small field, with the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained Broadway Boy looking to make it for wins from five over fences. He is hard to overlook assuming further improvement, but so is the upped in class Apple Away, who gets a useful 12lb form the top-weight. Lightly raced with four wins from seven over hurdles, he started his new career with a third at Haydock before winning by 31 lengths at Leicester despite being eased down before the line. He can only improve with experience and certainly looks well weighted here, though it is a shame such a small field means each way bets are not a possibility.
Kempton 2.42pm
The Lanzarote Hurdle may be the betting race of the day, and has been won by some decent sorts in the past but with a 66/1 winner (Boreham Bill in 2021) it seems that all things are possible. For interest only, Yeats sired the last two winners and is responsible for outsider Wonderwall (33/1) here, while only one horse older than eight has won in the last 26 years, suggesting Quinta Do Mar is up against it. Nothing else stands up as worth knowing other than the fact that Nicky Henderson has a 34% place strike rate including four winners, though Paul Nicholls has had 10 place or win here, a 45% percentage which may just trump his rival. Unsurprisingly they are responsible for two runners each this year, and all sit in the top seven in the betting, with Impose Toi (Henderson) heading the market by a point from Sonigino (Nicholls). I try to avoid suggesting favourites for the fun of it, but sometimes they are unavoidable, and the jolly was unlucky last time out when second at Ascot. He pulled too hard for his own good for Jonjo O’Neill Junior that day and made a hash of the last two hurdles which hardly aided his cause, and with a faster run race expected here over a more sensible trip where he can attack off the early pace, he may get back to winning ways. Nemean Lion is another who can go well at a (slightly) bigger price and if he gets his hurdling together he could be the surprise package and is weighted to finish in front of Sonigino here on November form (17lb better off for half a length), while Langer Dan has been out of sorts recently but could go well at a big price if they can rekindle his interest.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Apple Away 2.24pm Warwick
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