Well, I am back in the cold of the UK again now (no, I don’t want to be), and you will be delighted to know I only have the two off topic subjects I want to have a moan about, the first being racing’s perception among the general public, the second how useless tissues are (and by definition, have to be).
Part One, and although I get on well with my colleagues at the BHA, I do have to wonder whether they live in the same era as me, or if they are in some kind of time warp where they are stuck in Victorian London? trainer David Flood was hauled over the coals and had his bottom well and truly smacked (with a £1000 fine) for being abusive to a BHA vet at the races. Fair comment, I hear you cry – but did you wonder just how outrageous this abuse was? Did he question her parentage, or worse still use the F word or even the C word in anger? Sort of I suppose as he did use the C word if you include “Clown” though the other word quoited was “Idiot” – wow, cover your ears and do not read before the watershed of 9.00pm or in front of children! My point is not that he should get away with it, or that being rude or shouting at an official is acceptable, but how does something like that help the public perception of our sport when playground words constitute abuse and a hefty fine - give me strength and help me to drag them kicking and screaming in to the 20th Century (it’s too soon to even mention the 21st I’m afraid).
On to tissues – you know where racing experts put up a set of prices for any given race well in advance, and poor idiots like me use them as guides to a horses chances later in the week. I’m not a huge fan as you can tell (I have done them in the past and its more guesswork than my tips if that is even possible), but to be fair to the compilers, where do you start. Looking at the newsletter from Ron Robinson at Post Racing today and he has found 20 horses that have moved significantly in the markets over night – one of them from 25/1 to 10/1, another from 16/1 to 10/1 and so on. My point is how can anyone second guess real markets as opposed to prices they think a horse may be? In general, for each of those 20 horses moving in, a load of other horses per race will be moving out to keep the balance so it’s a thankless task and I do advise one and all to ignore them when looking for a winner days in advance.
On to the racing – and its decent stuff so I will stick with the Group races so I get some time to breathe.
Friday Racing:
2.25pm Newmarket
I guess Albaflora has the best form and thus deserves her place at the head of the market, but three-year-olds do better in this race than her elders, and I wonder if there may be a spot of value to be had for the each way players? Trainer William Haggas does exceptionally well with his filles and although many will argue that Domino Darling is the stable first string, I am going to take a chance on 20/1 shot Sea La Rosa who takes a big step up in class but hasn’t done a lot wrong all season. Her sequence reads 1,2,1,2,1 so in theory she is due to come home second, and as I think she is improving all the time and only does just about enough to win when the opportunity arises, she looks worthy of a quid each way.
3.00pm Newmarket
One of those races where I would not fall over in shock were an outsider to win this with Femme Friendly a prime candidate, but after careful thought I have come down on the side of Jumbly who looks a typical Roger Charlton filly and is getting better with every start. A debut win in a Leicester maiden was followed by a very impressive success on the Kempton polytrack and if she improves again as I expect, then she deserves her shot in this Group Two event. Obviously, Andrew Baldings’ Majestic Glory will be a tough nut to crack, but you never know how good they are until they get beaten, and my selection is yet to taste defeat.
3.35pm Newmarket
If this prize for this Group Two contest doesn’t go to Godolphin there will be some very happy bookmakers, with their two runners dominating the betting, and rightly so. Fitness is the big question surrounding Master Of The Seas, runner-up in the 2000 Guineas in May but not seen since which has to be a worry. The form of that race has been franked by winner Poetic Flare more times than I can count as he went on to win or place in pretty much every Group One mile race this season, and the favourite really ought to win this if he can repeat that effort, but where has he been and why? Benbatl, in the same ownership, could be the one to take full advantage of any possible fitness issues and will strip fitter after his first run in 11 months when beaten a short-head at Goodwood, but for betting purposes I would stick to the jolly – if I was having a bet at all, that is.
Saturday Racing:
1.50pm Newmarket
If memory serves we were on Coroebus on his winning debut (I certainly was!), and although this is a big step up in class, he looked a juvenile of untapped potential there and may well go on to be Godolphin’s best two-year-old. If he wins here the 40/1 available for the 2000 Guineas next year will soon disappear (and I might take a little myself just in case), but he will have to get past the more experienced Masekala here which will at least give us a better idea about his true abilities.
2.25pm Newmarket
An interesting race as always and one taken by trainer Aidan O’Brien three times in the last five years, and this year he relies on once raced Naas maiden winner Tenebrism who hacked up over five furlongs and should have no trouble with the sixth she faces here. You have to wonder why she hasn’t been seen since late March, and for that reason I will go with fellow Irish raider Sacred Bridge, who has looked a bit special when winning all four starts so far, the latest at The Curragh when she cruised home by close to four lengths hard held in the Group Three Round Tower Stakes. Hard to oppose on the evidence of my own eyes she ought to take this if in the same form, but we are heading in to Autumn and there is the risk they will start to go in their coats, so I will keep my stakes to a sensible amount.
3.00pm Newmarket
Normally I just love these races but there is a distinct shortage of top-class two-year-olds on show here with one or two exceptions. Perfect Power looks the one to beat for Richard Fahey after the son of Ardad, who now looks very well bought at £110,000 at the Breeze Ups, took the Darley Prix Morny (Group One) at Deauville last month. Pouncing late on that day under a forceful Soumillon ride, he met trouble in running but still won by over a length going away and if he can repeat that here on slightly better ground, he could well have too many guns for the rest of this field.
2.30pm The Curragh
In the last decade in this race the score reads trainer Aidan O’Brien 10 – anyone else who dared to have a runner, 0, and in the last 24 renewals he has in fact won all bar five of them, which is an outstanding record. This year he relies on the once raced Luxembourg, an easy winner at Killarney in July and entered in this race and most of the major autumn events. A son of Camelot bred by Ben Sangster, we have to assume he has every chance based on past statistics, but I get the feeling they may not have as many superstars this year, and I am not as confident about his chances as I have other horses of his in the past.
4.10pm The Curragh
A strange make up to this contest with some intriguing combatants. Twilight Spinner won last time out at Haydock when galloping clear of his field for a wide margin success in May but he has been sold out of the David O’Meara yard and has his first start for Joseph O’Brien here. He did impress and he could go on to be world class but we have to remember that was on heavy ground, and winning distances can be exaggerated in drastic conditions. Gyldan is even more if an unknown quantity after winning a Tipperary maiden by a couple of lengths before being thrown straight in to Group company, but he clearly needs to find improvement, leaving British raider Art Power as my idea of the winner. He may not have won this season but he hasn’t run badly either, with a length and three-quarter fifth last time out behind Emaraaty Ana at Haydock in the Betfair Sprint Cup (Group One), and he ought to be able to make the most of the drop in class, with the Tim Easterby horses continuing to perform well in the main.
Sean’s Selections:
Sacred Bridge 2.25pm Newmarket Saturday
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