ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Another winner for my weekly suggestion last week, here’s hoping we can build up a bit of a run, you never know your luck in this game!
Moving on and I bet you are all fed up with the chat about Affordability Checks but don’t blame me, blame the Gambling Commission. New rules came into force last week which start with light touch checks on deposit i.e. CCJs, bankruptcy etc and to be fair, who can have any argument with that as a concept? After that the figures move up to £500 a month for the trial (which seems pointless when the figures will be lowered again when they are brought in permanently), but do I care – not a jot? Why would I, when for the last couple of years it has been irrelevant whatever the Gambling Commission came up with – bookmakers continue to run scared of multi-million pound fines for any gambling problem issues, and thus ride roughshod over the “rules” regardless. Until the GC has the balls to step forward with a definite e set of rules that bookmakers can adhere to, safe in the knowledge that doing so means they are in the clear, I am quietly confident that we will hear plenty of stories of demands for bank statements, payslips, proof of address, photos outside your house – and the odd armful of blood for those old enough to remember Tony Hancock. Meanwhile, all my credit details sit somewhere (when I apply for a bank loan or even a mobile phone they check my suitability somewhere), whistling in the wind as the bookmaking industry scream loudly that the 19th century is alive and well.
My mate Ron Robinson texted me on Saturday afternoon asking me to have a look at the Chester non-runners, and now I know why. 14 were pulled out in total, and nothing new there I don’t suppose, but what of their draws in races shorter than a mile? In the first race over seven furlongs we had one withdrawal (drawn 6 of 6), race five over six furlongs had three withdrawals, drawn 9,8,and 7 (of 9), and race six (also six furlongs) had one non-runner – drawn 9 of 11. Now I am quietly confident that some or all of those withdrawals were for legitimate reasons – but what if they weren’t? We all know a low draw is good at Chester (and a high draw seen as the kiss of death) but should trainers be allowed to withdraw for that reason – personally, the answer is a very loud NO with the punters ignored yet again. Race five went from a nine runner affair (paying out each way 1-3) to a six runner contest screwing up numerous each way multiples, while every other race saw a rule 4 of sorts for those who took early prices about then winners , a shorter SP for those who didn’t – and for those who look at races in minute detail, every chance there were changes in the complexion of the way the race would be run, and maybe, just maybe, trainers need better reasons (that they can back up) before allowing simple withdrawals on the day.
Talking of Rule 4, and it has been pointed out to me time and again that bookmakers process are moving a fraction in time before a horse is withdrawn to shorten the non-runner’s price and make the Rule 4 increase for those who then back the winner. Not playing cricket as far as I am concerned, but the embarrassing thing seems to be that no-one has control over it. The SPRC (Starting Price Regulatory Commission) would be interested were it just before the off (thus affecting Starting Price) but an early morning withdrawal is not in their remit, and it appears outside of any control. Yes, punters can write to their bookmakers on an individual basis, and then on to IBAS if they don’t get the answer they are looking for, but you would think the industry as a whole would have some interest - but apparently not.
Positives to end with and hats-off to Aidan O’Brien who has announced that City Of Troy will gallop at Southwell on the 20th September (times to be confirmed) as he looks to tat the three-year-old ahead of a tilt on the dirt in the Breeders’ Cup dirt at Del Mar. Word is he will be bringing a strong team to work with the colt and they will go pretty hard from start to finish to emulate the conditions he will face stateside as best as possible, but better still, the gallop will be open to the public. That is a massive plus to public relations in my eyes, and as long as the track do not charge entry (watch this space), they should have a good day put (though sadly I will be in Spain that week).
Lastly, and although some of us know that as you get older time flies by, where did Hollie Doyle’s 1000 winners come from? It seems like only yesterday she was a fresh-faced newcomer looking to make her mark in a male-dominated sport, but here we are celebrating a serious and momentous milestone. Still a youthful 27 year-old, she went from David Evans to Richard Hannon to Archie Watson as her profile grew, and she has now ridden 39 black type winners (Group and Listed level, with 100 winners or more for the last six seasons in a row, including this year which still has a long way to go. I always see her as unflappable in the saddle (though I doubt she would agree with me), allowing her natural horsemanship to do a large percentage of the work, and I am convinced certain horses run better for a female jockey for whatever reason – something to research when I get a day or two spare for my next book, perhaps?
Fancy a podcast – here is the link…https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/09/06/hollie-bad-draws-and-city-of-troy/
Saturday Racing
1.15pm Haydock
A Group Three event to start our Saturday afternoon, over the Haydock mile but with the warning attached that the word soft seems likely to be in the going description which will be an issue for some of these. Only seven runners, but as I write they still bet 4/1 the field which gives us all a good idea of just how closely matched this event is. Cicero’s Gift heads the market, and although he was beaten 19 lengths on quicker ground at Goodwood, he clearly prefers a softer surface to give his best. Wins at Newbury, Wolverhampton and Goodwood were followed by a seventh to Paddington in the Group One St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last June when he was repeatedly denied a clear run, while this season has seen a win on soft ground at Sandown before last month’s instantly forgettable effort. There is a thought that we have not seen the best of him yet, and if that is the case, this is his to lose.
2.00pm Kempton
All-weather time, which at least gives us a touch more certainty over the going, and this Group Three sprint over the six furlongs for two-year-olds has seen nine successful trainers in the last 10 runnings, with only Charlie Appleby doubling up. Maiden winner Symbol Of Strength has to be the one they all need to beat, with Adrian Paul Keatley’s son of Kodiac the obvious form pick. Fifth on his Beverley debut, he built on that with a comfortable victory in an Ayr maiden, but it his last run that makes him stand out from the rest. Sent off an 80/1 shot for the Group Two Gimcrack Stakes at York last month, he came might close to causing a huge upset when beaten just a length into third, with Molecomb Stakes winner Big Mojo a length behind him, and the Aidan O’Brien trained favourite Camille Pissaro over four lengths behind him. We do have to assume that was not a one-off I admit, and his price is far skinnier than I had hoped, but he is officially rated 12lb better than any of his rivals, yet only has to give 3lb to the likes of It Ain’t Two, with Jouncy my idea of his biggest danger (and an each way alternative) in a first-time visor.
2.35pm Kempton
A mile and a half for our next Group Three on the all-weather and a race John Gosden has won four times in the last 10 years, so fair to say he knows exactly the sort needed. He runs four-year-old Lions Pride here, last of five last time out at Goodwood at this level, but less than five lengths off the winner. He can clearly go well in this company, and he has been well-backed all week accordingly, but is he really ready to topple the likes ofHamish? William Haggas’s now eight-year-old has shown few signs of slowing down, with a win at Newbury on his return, a length second to Luxembourg in the Coronation Cup at Epsom, and a poor fourth at Newmarket in July. No-one believes he gave his true running that day so I am willing to forgive and forget, and with a one out of two record on the all-weather I am willing to give him another chance regardless.
3.35pm Haydock
Back on the turf at Haydock here with the Group One Betfair Sprint Stakes over six furlongs, a Group One and undoubtedly the most eagerly anticipated contest of the weekend. Inisherin is the obvious pick with Kevin Ryan’s Shamardal colt winning here in May and following that with success in the Group One Commonwealth Cup at Royal ascot – by over two lengths! Fifth last time out when things didn’t go his way, he still looks the one to beat, though whether the current 7/2 is any value is a separate question. He an and should go well, perhaps even winning with ease, but I am willing to take a risk at a bigger price on Bucanero Fuerte each way at 14/1 or thereabouts. The winner of three of his five races as a two-year-old including the Group One Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh (by four lengths), he reappeared in May with a head success at Naas when everyone could see he would improve for the run, but has been off since, effectively missing all the summer sprints, which must have tested the patience of his connections. He nearly made Royal Ascot so it hasn’t been anything career threatening, and as he is the highest rated horse in the race by 3lb I am willing to take the chance at a much bigger price.
4.07pm Haydock
“Just” a Listed race to end our Saturday action for this week, and as we are restricted to two-year-olds, we have the age old balancing act of form versus potential to try and weigh up, which is never easy to second guess. Age Of Gold heads the betting but doesn’t hold any fancy entries for Godolphin which may tell us all we need to know about just how good they think he is, and I will be going for Stark Warning instead. Once raced for Ralph Beckett and a winner at Ffos Las with some ease, he holds an entry in the Royal Lodge Stakes later in the season, suggesting they think quite a bit of him, and with Rossa Ryan on board this afternoon he can go well though better safe than sorry, and I will be backing him each way just in case.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Cicero’s Gift 1.15pm Haydock
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